Italy or France will win the World Cup - according to stats

By John Bagratuni Jul 2, 2006, 16:51 GMT

Hamburg - If statistics are anything to go by, Italy or France will win the World Cup although hosts Germany are not fully out of the running.

Football history also suggests that Portugal need to reverse several trends if they want to continue beyond the semi-finals.

Italy have never lost against Germany in a competitive match heading into their semi-final encounter in Dortmund on Tuesday.

Four games ended in draws, in group games at Euro 1988 and Euro 1996, and at the World Cup in 1962 and 1978. Italy won the other two: 4-3 in the famous 1970 World Cup semi-final and 3-1 in the 1982 final.

If Italy make the final the statistics will also favour them.

Italy beat a European team on each occasion when they lifted the trophy (1934 vs Czechoslovakia, 1938 vs Hungary and 1982 vs Germany) Their only defeats in World Cup finals came against Brazil, 1970 and 1994.

Germany, for their part, have moved ahead of Brazil with 11 semi- final berths in 16 appearances. They have never lost a match in Dortmund but must defy the odds against Italy if they want to make an eighth appearance in the final, which would beat Brazil's seven.

Germany are also aiming to become the first nation to win the World Cup twice at home.

Of the other three two-time hosts, Italy won in 1934 and went out in the 1990 semis, France were ousted in the 1938 quarter-finals before lifting the trophy in 1998 while Mexico were eliminated in the quarter-finals in 1970 and 1986.

Italy accounted for France in 1938 and Mexico in 1970, while a victory against Germany on Tuesday would confirm this trend.

Portugal, meanwhile, are in their second semi following 1966, losing to later champions England.

In this respect, a French win in their match Wednesday in Munich could be an indication that France will go on to lift the trophy.

France won their European titles in 1984 and 2000 after semi-final victories against Portugal, 3-2 and 2-1, both in extra-time.

In the case of a France vs. Italy final, France could have an edge based on the teams' results at big events.

Italy won the first two games, 3-1 in the 1938 quarters and 2-1 in the 1978 group stage, but the following three went to France, 2-1 in the round of 16 in 1986, 4-3 on penalties on the 1998 quarter-finals and 2-1 in extra-time in the Euro 2000 final.

France also hold a 1-0 record in World Cup finals from the 3-0 triumph over Brazil in 1998. But then again, as pointed out, France have never lost a World Cup final against a European team.

However, should France run into Germany, the Germans could have the upper end, looking at their semi-final wins from 1982 on penalties and 2-0 in 1986. France won the third-place match 6-3 between them in 1958.

Germany also stand a chance to at least make the final because there has been only one previous occasion since World War II when neither they nor Brazil reached the World Cup final - in 1978 when Argentina beat the Netherlands.

It is the fourth World Cup following 1938, 1966 and 1982 that only European teams are in the semi-finals, confirming the trend that the South American powerhouses can only win outside Europe - the only exception being Brazil at the 1958 edition in Sweden.

However, European teams have never won the World Cup outside the Old Continent, which could give Brazil, Argentina and company some hope ahead of 2010 in South Africa and 2014 in South America (likely Brazil).

But for now, the World Cup in Germany has a familiar European ring and the Germans knew even long before the tournament and euphoria around Juergen Klinsmann's team that the title is theirs.

After all, its 54 x 74 - 1990 = 2006 - a simple mathematical calculation around Germany's previous titles 1954, 1974 and 1990.