Paris - Sometimes a sporting event is like a horse race,
with no winner apparent before the starting gates open and the
outcome in doubt until the final strides.
The 2009 Tour de France, which begins Saturday in the principality
of Monaco, is nothing like that at all. Even this reporter's crystal
ball, which was bought cheaply in a shabby Paris antique shop, has no
trouble predicting the winner.
He rides for the troubled Astana team, is returning to the Tour
after an absence and has already won the race.
No, it is not 37-year-old Lance Armstrong, who holds a record
seven Tour de France titles and is making a comeback after a
three-year retirement.
A victory by the Texas native would be welcomed by perhaps
millions of cancer survivors and sufferers around the world, because
Armstrong, who overcame the disease, returned to cycling primarily to
publicize cancer research.
Not only is Armstrong's age against him, but his training for the
Tour suffered a setback when he broke his collarbone in March during
the Vuelta Castilla y Leon.
The former 'boss' of the peloton, or pack of riders, will
therefore have to content himself with working in support of the
almost certain winner, fellow Astana rider Alberto Contador of Spain.
Armstrong is very aware of his role.
'The trick,' he told the New York Times, 'is trying to be a
responsible teammate and co-leader and understand that Alberto could
not just be stronger, but could be a lot stronger.'
Contador was only 25 when he won the 2007 Tour. He is now two
years older and has shown that he is the world's best Grand Tour
rider, having won the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta a Espana (Tour of
Spain) last year.
Contador and his Astana team director, Johan Bruyneel, targeted
those two races after he was prevented from defending his Tour de
France title because his Astana team was banned from the race due to
its involvement in doping scandals the previous year.
Only four other riders, and no other Spaniard - not even the great
Miguel Indurain - have won all three Grand Tour titles in their
careers.
Bruyneel, who directed all seven of Armstrong's Tour championships
as well as Contador's title, has had him train so that he will peak
in July. The Spaniard's third-place finish in the Dauphine Libere in
early June showed that his preparations were on course.
In addition, Astana may be going through financial difficulties,
but they are fielding far and away the most talented team in the
race.
Not only can Contador count on Armstrong to support him, but he
also has former Tour runners-up Andreas Kloeden of Germany and
American Levi Leipheimer as lieutenants.
Contador's chances of winning the Tour improved greatly when the
Dauphine Libere winner, fellow Spaniard Alejandro Valverde, was
banned from the race because of doping.
Australian Cadel Evans, who finished second in the Dauphine Libere
and placed second in the 2007 and 2008 Tour de France, is one of
Contador's most dangerous rivals this year.
But the operative word in Evans's biography is 'second.' The
32-year-old Aussie is a strong rider in all facets of the sport, but
he lacks the explosive power in the mountains to outdistance his
opponents when the race is on the line.
And the race will be on the line on July 25, when the riders
tackle the formidable climb up Mont Ventoux, at the edge of the
French Alps.
The climb comes on the 20th of the race's 21 stages, and after the
riders have conquered some 3,200 of the Tour's 3,459.5 kilometers.
Armstrong has called the 20km ascent of Mont Ventoux the toughest
of all the Tour climbs, and it is significant that he has never won
it.
But if the crystal ball is correct, he will win this prestigious
stage this year, crossing the finish line just ahead of Contador,
whom he has led up the mountain.
They will leave in their wake the rider who will finish second in
the Tour, last year's winner, Carlos Sastre of Spain, as well as
Evans and other ambitious also-rans, such as Denis Menchov of Russia
and Luxembourg's Andy Schleck.
And if Astana and Bruyneel play their cards right, and no accident
or other unexpected event interferes, then Armstrong may well join
Contador on the podium with a third-place Tour finish that will be
celebrated, rightly, as a triumph.
But you don't need a crystal ball to predict that this year's
race, like the last two, will be troubled by doping.
This year, the French Anti-Doping Authority (AFLD) and the sport's
ruling body, the International Cycling Union (UCI), are working
together for the first time, which is bad news for cheaters.
The UCI has introduced the biological passport, an electronic
record for each rider in which the results of all doping tests over a
period of time are collected.
In addition, there will be more tests than ever before, and AFLD
head Pierre Bordry announced the use of a new test to detect a
previously undetectable substance, which he did not want to name.
So, as has become usual in the Tour de France, triumph will again
be accompanied by shame.
USA
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