History shows Olympic downhill hard to predict (News Feature)

By John Bagratuni Feb 11, 2010, 18:28 GMT

Whistler, Canada - The men's downhill ski race is the Winter Olympics equivalent to the 100 metres dash at Summer Games but there is no Usain Bolt in sight to dominate in Whistler on Saturday.

On the contrary, the downhill has seen a number of surprise winners over the past decades, far from the predictability of the men's sprint.

The names range from American Ben Johnson 1984 in Sarajevo to Frnechman Antoine Deneriaz four years ago in Turin.

Even the dominating ski power of Austria has seen unexpected winners from its camp, such as Leonard Stock 1980 in Lake Placid or Patrick Ortlieb 12 years later in Albertville.

Predictable winners, meanwhile, include Toni Sailer and Jean-Claude Killy, who achieved the famous golden treble in 1956 and 1968, respectively. Franz Klammer delighted an Austrian home crowd 1976 in Innsbruck and the great Pirmin Zurbriggen was the last Swiss winner 1988 in Calgary.

This time around compatriot Didier Cuche may the closest thing skiing has comparable to the Jamaican sprint star Bolt.

The 35-year-old veteran has won six World Cup downhills in his career, including three triumphs at the most world's most famous race in Kitzbuehel.

But, being a seasoned veteran, Cuche knows that his merits which include a super-g gold and downhill silver from the 2009 worlds will mean absolutely nothing when the skiers throw themselves at the mercy of the 3,105-metres Dave Murray piste on Saturday.

'The outsiders and upstarts will risk everything because for them it is all or nothing and so they reach the podium,' said Cuche after topping the list of skiers who completed Wednesday's practice.

'But the three on the podium here will not all be surprises. I will prevent that. The known skiers will be there as well.'

American Bode Miller, who only lacks an Olympic gold to complete his skiing greatness, named several factors which make an Olympic race different from an ordinary World Cup event.

With each nation limited to four starters an Olympic start list offers outsiders a bigger chance to get a favourable bib than a World Cup race where a nation like Austria has more than four starters among the elite 30.

Miller pointed at the mental side when listing 'other variables' such as the huge media hype surrounding the Games.

While racers agree that the Whistler piste doesn't favour either a technical skier or a glider, there are fears that the unpredictable and fast changing Whistler weather could lead to a surprise winner.

'We all want the fairest race when it's the fastest guy down. It doesn't make the results the truest to who is fastest when its flunky weather,' said US racer Ted Ligety, the Olympic combined champion from 2006.

The US team often comes closest to Cuche's theory that some may be ready to take bigger risks because for them only Olympic glory offers a chance of stardom in a country not particularly interested in skiing in the first place.

'If you want to impress your peers you win in Kitzbuehel but if you want to impress the American public you win at the Olympics,' said Tommy Moe a few days before his 1994 gold in Lillehammer.

The famous crash of Hermann Maier 1998 in Nagano highlighted that intelligence on the piste and not speed alone as in Bolt's case lead to fame and fortune.

'Hopefully I can make the tactical decisions to come down and be error-free, but I want to find the gas pedal and put it to the floor,' said Miller.

Deneriaz, meanwhile, has just one piece of advice for his successor atop the podium.

'Go for it. Try as hard as you can. The one who believes in it stronger than the others wins,' the retired Deneriaz said.