By Jeff Frank Jan 29, 2007, 21:40 GMT
Philadelphia, PA - Last week, I detailed some reasons why the Bears have a decent shot at upsetting the Colts in Super Bowl XLI. This week, I'll delve into the fun part of the big game: Prop betting.
Las Vegas and most offshore gambling facilities offer a wide array of wagers from how many field goals will be made in the Super Bowl to how long it will take Billy Joel to sing the National Anthem!
Its time to run through my top plays from all the possible prop bets, and I'll begin with the three safest ones. Indianapolis receiver Marvin Harrison finished third in the NFL in receptions with 95 and second in yards with 1,366. Those numbers average out to six catches per game for 85 yards. However, the 11-year veteran has been held in check in the three playoff games, catching a combined 10 balls for 134 yards. Hes failed to even reach five receptions in a single postseason contest.
Taking those numbers a step further, Harrison was on the receiving end of 26% of Peyton Mannings completions during the 16-game regular season. Harrison was also Mannings main target, in terms of yardage, compiling 31% of the total number of yards thrown by his quarterback.
The playoffs have been the complete opposite. Harrison has caught only 10 of Mannings 72 completed passes, which averages out to 14%, far below the 26% during the regular season. In terms of yardage percentage, Manning has thrown for 787 yards in the postseason, and Harrison has been on the receiving end for 134 of them, a 17% ratio. Once again, this number is far under the 31% throughout the regular season.
Can these two connect more often in the Super Bowl? Theres always that chance, but with the way the Bears play defense, the odds are much greater that Harrison will continue his lackluster performance. Two prop bets that should come out on the winning side are:
1) Total receptions by Marvin Harrison. The number is set at 5 1/2, and one must wager $140 to win $100 on the OVER, while the UNDER is set at even money.
TAKE THE UNDER.
2) Total receiving yards by Marvin Harrison. The number is set at 78, and in both instances one must wager $120 to win $100. Harrison has failed to even reach 50 yards in any of the three postseason games.
Manning has not consistently looked for his trusted receiver because Dallas Clark has been the most lethal weapon on the field. The tight end has exploded in the playoffs with 17 receptions for 281 yards, after only having caught more than three passes in only two games during the regular season!
Manning and Clark hooked up only 30 times during the year for 367 yards, amounting to 8% ratio of Mannings completions and yardage thrown. Although Clark missed some time with injury, those percentages have increased to 24% in terms of receptions and a whopping 36% in relation to yardage in the playoffs.
The line on the number of receptions for Clark is set at 3.5, and one must wager $160 to win $100 on the OVER, which is way too high.
The better bet is:
3) Total receiving yards by Clark, which is set at 50.5. The UNDER actually is favored at -130, while the OVER is set at -110.
TAKE THE OVER.
The fourth play is:
4) Player to catch the first pass reception for the Colts. Harrison is the favorite at +180 and Reggie Wayne is a close second at +200.
TAKE CLARK AT THE JUICY NUMBER OF +300.
I predict a close final score with both teams scoring enough points to go over the total. I see the Colts reaching pay dirt at least three times. If they can score three TDs, expect Joseph Addai to account for at least one of those. The odds say that he won't, by the wide margin of -170 for no and +130 for yes.
5) Will Addai score a TD in the game? I say yes and gladly will take the +130 and run to the bank.
TAKE YES AND BET $100 TO WIN $130.
Staying with the touchdown theme, my next wager is:
6) Player to score the first TD of the game. This is always a crapshoot, but something tells me that it could be a long bomb from Rex Grossman to Bernard Berrian and the price is right at +1,000.
TAKE BERRIAN AND BET $100 TO WIN A GRAND.
7) Player to catch the first pass for the Bears. Receivers Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad are under +200, so lets take a shot to win some big bucks with Thomas Jones. The running back caught three or more passes in seven of his 16 games during the regular season and might be the perfect candidate for the win if Grossman wants to swing out a screen pass early in the game.
TAKE JONES AT THE SURPRISINGLY HIGH ODDS OF +500.
8) and 9) Robbie Goulds first field goal will be how many yards? I say his initial three-pointer made will be from a long way out, at least 40 yards. For this prop bet, I will make two wagers: A) From 40-49, you must bet $100 to win $250, and B) From 50 or longer, you must wager $100 to win a cool $550.
TAKE BOTH A AND B AND HOPE THE BEARS GET STOPPED ON THEIR FIRST DRIVE AT INDYS 23-YARD LINE, PREFERABLY THE 33.
Speaking of field goals, I will end with number:
10) The first score of the game will be? The heavy choice is a touchdown at -170, but I am leaning towards the three-pointer being the initial tally, and how can you not at +140?
TAKE THE FG/SAFETY AND BET $100 TO WIN $140.
© 2007 The Sports Network
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