Brady, Pats, Try to Take Out Frustrations on Jets

Nov 10, 2006, 23:30 GMT

- Patriots quarterback Tom Brady had thrown four interceptions in a game four times prior to last Sunday night's four-pick meltdown in a loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

If Brady's history following those multi-miscue games is any indication, then this week's Patriots opponent, the New York Jets, are in a bit of trouble.

The three-time Super Bowl winner has never allowed his one-game funk to turn into an extended malaise. Following all four occasions that Brady tossed four INTs, he came back strong without a pick the next week. All four times, the Patriots won. All four times, by double digits.

The Jets, who will be visiting Foxborough in a quest to halt a seven-game losing streak to the Patriots, know all about Brady's recuperative abilities. In two of those previous four games, he rebounded to beat them.

New England, which owns a two-game lead over second-place New York in the AFC East, will be looking for its star quarterback to bounce back by helping the Patriots extend their advantage in the division. Last week's defeat, the team's second at Gillette Stadium this season, snapped a four-game winning streak and placed Bill Belichick's club two games back of Indianapolis in the hunt for the top spot in the conference. The Pats are tied for the second-best record in the AFC as Week 10 begins, along with similarly 6-2 Baltimore, Denver, and San Diego.

The Jets, meanwhile, will be seeking to begin the second half with a bang after enjoying a bye in Week 9. New York's open date was preceded by a 20-13 loss to the Cleveland Browns, as the team's rally fell short when tight end Chris Baker was controversially ruled out of bounds on a would-be game-tying touchdown in the waning moments.

SERIES HISTORY

The Jets hold a 47-44-1 edge in the all-time regular season series with the Patriots, though as mentioned, they have lost seven in a row to their long- time AFC East rival. New England was a 24-17 road winner against the Jets in Week 2, and swept home-and-homes with the Jets in 2003, 2004, and 2005. New England was a 16-3 home winner over the Jets in Week 13 of the 2005 campaign. The Jets' most recent win over the Patriots was a 30-17 triumph in Foxborough during the 2002 season.

The teams have also met once in the postseason, a 26-14 Patriots win in a 1985 AFC First-Round Playoff.

Belichick has a career mark of 10-5 against the Jets, including 9-4 while with New England. Mangini is 0-1 against both his former mentor Belichick and his ex-employer New England.

JETS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

Though his return to the field has been by all accounts an encouraging one, the Jets are looking for a little more production than quarterback Chad Pennington (1558 passing yards, 9 TD, 8 INT) has shown them of late. After recording 300-yard passing days in each of New York's first two games, Pennington has gone over 200 yards just once in his past six, and a passer rating that was once well over 100 has since dipped to 82.3. Pennington threw for 306 yards on 22-of-37 passing with two touchdowns against New England back in Week 2. Three of the signal-caller's would-be targets - Laveranues Coles (calf), Justin McCareins (foot), and Tim Dwight (thigh) - are listed as questionable heading into the New England game. Coles leads the Jets in catches (46) and receiving yards (606), and is tied for the team lead in TD receptions (3) along with No. 2 wideout Jerricho Cotchery (35 receptions, 3 TD). Tight end Chris Baker (15 receptions, 2 TD) has been a dependable target over the middle for Pennington, who was sacked 19 times during the first half.

All eyes in New England this week will be on a secondary that, in addition to being largely responsible for the team's distant rank of 28th in the NFL against the pass (229 yards per game), also lost its best player, strong safety Rodney Harrison (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), to a broken scapula last week. More pressure will be heaped on the burgeoning corner tandem of Ellis Hobbs (22 tackles, 1 INT) and Asante Samuel (35 tackles, 3 INT), while free safety Eugene Wilson (24 tackles) figures to line up alongside Artrell Hawkins (23 tackles) or Chad Scott (23 tackles, 2 INT) in Harrison's absence. Looking to take pressure off the secondary will be a New England pass rush that has produced 21 sacks on the year, including three of Peyton Manning last Sunday. Outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin (2.5 sacks) had a sack-and-a-half in his best game of the season, but still trails situational pass rusher Jarvis Green (5.5 sacks) for the team lead. The Pats sacked Pennington four times in Week 2.

Amid the recent news that all-time Jets leading rusher Curtis Martin is unlikely to play football again due to a knee injury, it is officially time for Mangini to identify a No. 1 running back from the mix of rookie Leon Washington (397 rushing yards, 2 TD), and bigger backs Kevan Barlow (252 rushing yards, 5 TD), Cedric Houston (59 rushing yards, 1 TD), and Derrick Blaylock (44 rushing yards). The diminutive Washington has been the go-to-guy of late, with Barlow backing him, and has gone over the 100-yard mark in two of his last four games. Houston hasn't played since injuring his knee against the Colts in Week 4, and Blaylock last carried the football in Week 2. The Jets' are 26th in the league with 3.6 yards per carry.

New England's unquestioned defensive strength is against the run, as the Patriots rank third in NFL rushing defense (75.1 yards per game) and have shut down virtually every ground attack they have faced. Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (40 tackles, 1 sack) and Junior Seau (52 tackles, 1 sack) have had much to do with that effort, as has New England's vaunted three-man line of nose tackle Vince Wilfork (31 tackles, 1 sack) and ends Richard Seymour (21 tackles, 3 sacks) and Ty Warren (43 tackles, 2 sacks). Seau had a team-high 11 tackles against Indianapolis, while Warren recorded an impressive nine stops from his place in the trenches. Four Jets running backs combined for 49 yards on 22 carries (2.2 yards per attempt) against New England in Week 2.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE

Following his four-interception game against the Colts, Brady (1799 passing yards, 14 TD, 8 INT) sports a passer rating of 83.5, which would be the lowest of his career if it were to hold up through the end of the season. But it is difficult to characterize Brady as having a 'down year,' especially after an October in which the Pro Bowler threw 10 touchdown passes against two picks. Brady's receiving threats have varied from week to week. Tight end Ben Watson leads the team in receptions (32) and receiving yards (420), while wideouts Doug Gabriel (22 receptions, 3 TD), Troy Brown (24 receptions, 3 TD), and Chad Jackson (7 receptions, 3 TD) are tied for the New England lead in touchdown catches. Reche Caldwell (23 receptions, 1 TD) has been a major part of the operation as well. The Patriots line has protected the quick-triggered Brady well as usual, allowing just 12 sacks through the team's first eight games.

Brady figures to have plenty of time to throw against a Jets team that ranks 29th in the league in sacks (13) and has yet to find a consistent pass-rusher in the post-John Abraham era. Strong safety Kerry Rhodes (50 tackles, 2 INT) leads New York in sacks with three, and outside linebackers Victor Hobson (35 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Bryan Thomas (48 tackles, 2 sacks) along with end Shaun Ellis (24 tackles, 2 sacks) have been the team's most effective players at the traditional pass rushing positions. Where New York has thrived is in procuring turnovers, as its 10 interceptions are tied for the fifth-most in the league. Rhodes and cornerbacks Andre Dyson (3 INT) and David Barrett (2 INT) have combined for seven of the team's 10 picks on the year. Cornerback Justin Miller (39 tackles), who leads the NFL with two kickoff returns for touchdowns this year, is still seeking his first interception as a pro.

Though Belichick was roundly criticized for not running the ball against a soft Indianapolis front seven last week, New England did finish with a healthy 148 ground yards, including a combined 111 on 26 carries from running backs Laurence Maroney (458 rushing yards, 3 TD, 10 receptions) and Corey Dillon (381 rushing yards, 6 TD). Dillon scored both New England touchdowns in the game, though he also lost a fumble in the defeat. Third-down back Kevin Faulk also had a hit-or-miss night, amassing 55 yards on nine total touches but also dropping two key fourth-quarter passes to help seal the Pats' losing fate. The Patriots, who rushed for 147 yards against the Jets in Week 2, are currently seventh in NFL rushing offense (127.8 yards per game).

The Jets have had major trouble against the run this season, ranking 30th in NFL rushing defense (143 yards per game) and facing more rushing attempts (260) than every team but the Titans and Raiders. With that in mind, the fact that inside linebackers Jonathan Vilma (69 tackles, 1 INT) and Eric Barton (66 tackles, 2 sacks) both rank among NFL leaders in stops carries little meaning. Last time out, the Jets allowed Cleveland's Reuben Droughns to rush for a season-high 125 yards on 33 carries. New York needs more presence at the point of attack from a three-man line group including nose tackle Dewayne Robertson (31 tackles, 1 sack) and ends Bobby Hamilton (19 tackles) and Kimo von Oelhoffen (17 tackles). Each member of that group had three stops against the Browns.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Jets always seem to catch the Patriots at a bad time, when New England is coming off a tough loss or is trying to advance its position in the division or postseason race. That scenario holds again this week, as Brady and the Patriots look to take out last week's frustrations on their old friend Mangini and a Jets team that still isn't quite ready for prime time. New York will have trouble getting to Brady and won't consistently stop the run, and the Jets simply don't have the horses on the offensive side of the ball to keep pace with the New England attack. Look for the Pats to run their win streak against the Jets to eight, and to keep Mangini and company at arm's length throughout.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 23, Jets 7

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