NBA FINALS - Can you say sweep?

By The Sports Network Jun 5, 2007, 18:55 GMT

Cleveland Cavaliers Anderson Varejao of Brazil (R) hugs Daniel Gibson as LeBron James (:) looks on in the forth quarter against the Detroit Pistons in game six of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals Playoff series at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio on 02 June 2007. The Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Pistons 98-82 and will advance to the NBA Finals. EPA/JEFF KOWALSKY

Philadelphia, PA - The Spurs are huge favorites to take the 2006-07 NBA Championship so betting on them to take the crown is almost the same as sending it in on a 1-5 shot at the racetrack. The main question in this series is can the Cavaliers win one game. With LeBron James leading the way, anything is possible, but it's doubtful he can do it all by himself.

Cleveland received a huge lift in game six vs. the Pistons as former Texas Longhorn star Daniel Gibson lit up the scoreboard with 31 points, including 19 in the decisive fourth quarter. He has scored a total of 63 points since game four of that series, which is four more than he had in the prior 13 playoff games. If the Cavs can get the secondary scoring needed to keep things close with the Spurs, then it's entirely possible they can win at least one game in the series. However, that is unlikely to happen with the huge experience edge for the Spurs.

San Antonio will have eight days off before the first contest, the same amount of time the club had back in 2005 when Gregg Popovichs team held the Pistons to just 69 points in game one, an 84-69 victory. Game one of this series should have the same results.

The Spurs have a huge edge at almost every position except when it comes to LeBron. Nonetheless, the Cavs defeated them in both of the two meetings this season and have won the last three games as they took the final match-up of the 2005-06 season.

The last time these two squads met, January 2nd to be exact, Cleveland won 82-78 and held San Antonio to 38% from the field. The Cavs were able to defeat San Antonio despite hitting on just 36% from the floor themselves and one has to expect the Spurs coaching staff will have reviewed the tapes of that contest during the last few days.

GAME ONE

How will that translate to the NBA Finals? San Antonio is a 7.5-point favorite with the O/U set at 180. The way for gamblers to maximize victory is by looking for the spot that offers the paramount opportunity for profit and thats where the first-half line comes into play. The Spurs are favored by just four points in that wager and if one looks back at other playoff contests, he'll see how well this team has played in the first 24 minutes of action.

San Antonio has led at the break in all but one of their last nine games, with at least a four-point lead in four of their last five. Considering this will be the teams third trip to the NBA Finals in five years, theres no doubt the talented Spurs will have a big edge in the early going of game one. In addition, if San Antonios defense bottles up LeBron James, its highly unlikely his inexperienced supporting cast will be up to the task during the first two quarters.

The Spurs are 8-5 odds to win the series in six games. Thats the favored set of games as per the lines as of Tuesday afternoon. The next choice is San Antonio taking it in five and the odds there are 2-1. Both are too low to take and will not offer much value for the buck. My advice? Go with a sweep at the current odds of 7-2.

PROP BETS

Since LeBron James is the number one story in this years finals, there are many proposition bets in his honor beginning with how many points he will average for the series. He scored 154 points in the six games vs. Detroit for an average of 25.6 ppg. However, if one removes the 48-point contest, that number falls down to 21 ppg. The line is set on the high end of 27.1 so take the UNDER and lay the 140 to win 100.

An interesting bet is the average of LeBrons combined rebounds and assists per game. That number is set at 16.4. One has to expect San Antonio will be double-teaming him on many occasions so look for him to pile up assists on the offensive end. Defensively, he'll be good for nine to 10 rebounds a night, so go with the OVER on this one.

Another LeBron prop bet concerns his FT percentage. The favorite at 9-5 is a FT% between 65.1% and 75%. There are co-second choices at 2-1 between 55.1% and 65%, with the other at 85.1% and higher. Between 75.1% and 85% comes next at 3-2, while 45.1% to 55% follows at 3-1. The play here is between 75.1% and 85% at the decent price of 3-2. James has hit on 76.7% in the postseason so far, so look for him to improve a bit as the playoffs come to a close.

OTHER WAGERS

The Finals do not revolve around LeBron. There are a few decent players on the opposing side as well in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, among others.

If there is one prop bet that stands out among the rest, its the one concerning Ginobili. His ppg average is set at 17.4, which is extremely high considering he has never averaged that amount in an entire NBA season. Hes also been held to an 11-point average in his career against the Cavs.

If one looks at his recent postseason totals, he would see a 17.6 average vs. Utah and 17.8 vs. Phoenix. On the flipside, the Suns and Jazz do not play anywhere near the defense that Cleveland does, so look for the 29-year-old to be held in check by the Cavs. Lay the -125 to win 100 on this one.

The line on Tim Duncans scoring outputs is placed at 24.1 ppg and the O/U are both set at -120. The play here is the UNDER as he has scored over 24 ppg just twice in his last nine contests.

Finally, where theres a NBA Finals, theres always an MVP. Duncan is the heavy favorite at 1-3 odds, while LeBron is second choice at 2-1. The last time a player from the losing team won the award was back in 1969 with Jerry West doing the honors. Don't look for it to happen this season. Duncan has won it all three times the Spurs won the title so logic dictates he will take it again. Lay the wood.

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