CFB - Favorites rule week one

By Jeff Frank Sep 4, 2007, 21:45 GMT

Philadelphia, PA - The first week of the season provided one of the biggest upsets in the history of college football when Appalachian State toppled Michigan 34-32, but favorites more than held their own with a 30-15-2 record.

There were 47 lined contests this past week and the underdogs were only able to cover 15 of them for a 36% winning percentage. Compare that to last year's opening week, when dogs covered 20 of the 44 games for a winning percentage of 46%, and it's easy to see how well the favorites did.

Only two road underdogs were able to walk off the field as winners on Saturday, and if you read my previous column, you would have nailed them both. Bowling Green (+14) knocked off Minnesota at the Metrodome, 32-31, and UCF (+8) took care of business in Raleigh, defeating NC State, 25-23.

It was the second straight season the Wolfpack had lost at home to a non-BCS school, and not only did they lose their first game, but must move forward without RB Toney Baker, who will miss the rest of the season with an injured knee.

WEEK ONE RECORD

Of the nine plays released last week, seven came out on the positive side, and three unreleased contests (Oklahoma, Arkansas State and Arizona State) all were victorious. Not a bad opening weekend.

During the summer months, I had written three columns previewing the first week of the season. The three preseason locks were Georgia Tech over Notre Dame, UCF over NC State and Troy plus the points vs. Arkansas. The first two contests were as easy as pie, but the Trojans needed a meaningless late touchdown to cover the spread.

I caught some flack from Notre Dame fans after writing how Georgia Tech will take care of business in South Bend. Granted, you won't find too many teams with as many passionate fans as the Irish, but the game played out exactly as expected. The only inconsistent moments came from G-Tech QB Taylor Bennett, who still needs some more snaps before finding his A-game.

The two legitimate polls both had the Yellow Jackets unranked in the preseason Top 25 (27th in AP and 26th in USA Today), but they are a justifiable Top 15 club. Coach Chan Gailey will have them undefeated prior to the big matchup at Miami-Florida the seventh week of the season. Of all the second-tier schools, the Jackets have the best chance of reaching the BCS Championship Game since they have just one road game where they will not be favored, and that's the contest vs. the 'Canes.

RANDOM WEEK ONE THOUGHTS

-It's obvious now to all that Michigan has a lot of work to do after getting stunned by Appalachian State. The upset was extremely unexpected, but the poor defensive performance was not. The Wolverines lost almost all of their defensive playmakers from a year ago and were primed for a huge drop off in 2007. Allowing 34 points and 387 yards to the Mountaineers is not the way defensive coordinator Ron English would have liked his unit to begin the year.

Much has been written about Chad Henne and Mike Hart returning for their senior seasons, but the Wolverine offense has put up over 30 points just 16 times in 37 games. The previous combo of John Navarre and Chris Perry topped that mark almost as much (15 times) in only two years!

Michigan was ranked fifth in both preseason polls despite being a less talented team than last year's squad. Unfortunately for those folks (myself included) waiting to pounce on Oregon plus the points at the Big House this week, the loss to the Mountaineers will severely lower the spread.

-Illinois still can't catch a break. The Illini lost four games last year by a touchdown or less and fell to Missouri this past Saturday, 40-34, as Eddie McGee threw an interception deep in the Tigers zone with less than a minute to go. Ron Zook hopes things will turn around fast with Juice Williams expected to start this Saturday against Western Illinois.

-Colorado did not win its first game last season until its seventh game. The Buffaloes already have a 'W' in their pocket with a come from behind, 31-28 win over in-state rival Colorado State.

Kevin Eberhart had to replace one of the top kickers in the history of college football in Mason Crosby, but having to sit on the sidelines watching the superstar certainly helped the senior. Eberhart tied the game with 16 seconds left and then won it in overtime with a 35-yard boot.

Both teams repeatedly failed to stop the other in a game that produced over 700 yards of total offense. Unfortunately, both have bigger mountains to climb as the Rams host California this week while the Buffs travel to Arizona State.

-Only two leagues lost just one out-of-conference game in week one, and they were the SEC and the Big East. Tennessee put up a decent fight against Cal in the revenge game in Berkeley, but the Golden Bears had too much offensive firepower in their 45-31 home victory. Syracuse was the lone Big East school to falter, as Washington took the Orange apart in the second half en route to a 42-12 shellacking inside the Carrier Dome.

The Big 12 finished the opening week with an 8-4 mark as Baylor and Iowa State showed the nation how bad they will be this year, and Oklahoma State and Kansas State got SEC'd by Georgia and Auburn, respectively. Texas also struggled to a 21-13 win over Arkansas State of all teams. It's obvious this is not the same Longhorns squad that blitzed North Texas, 56-7 in their opening contest last season. The Indians actually outgained them both through the air (272-223) and on the ground (125-117).

That was not the case with Oklahoma, as the Sooners destroyed North Texas, 79-10. They tallied 668 total yards in preparation for this week's home game vs. Miami-Florida. Freshman sensation DeMarco Murray scored five touchdowns in the opener, and will make people forget about Adrian Peterson in a hurry. He's that good.

-Pittsburgh lost quarterback Bill Stull in its 24-3 win over Eastern Michigan. The junior could miss a month of action due to a torn ligament in his right thumb. True freshman Pat Bostick would have had the backup job locked up if he hadn't taken time away from school for personal reasons last month. Now he must battle redshirt freshman Kevin Smith for the start vs. Grambling this Saturday.

-Overlooked by the Appalachian State stunner was the job Nicholls State did in its road win over Rice. However, this game was played in horrendous weather conditions that forced two stoppages in play. Look for the Owls to bounce back vs. Baylor.

WEEK TWO PLAYS

Oklahoma hosts Miami-FL in a battle of two monster programs. However, that's where the similarities end. The Sooners are on their way to a fantastic season and will smoke the Hurricanes. Even though their last meeting was way back in 1987, it was for the National Championship at the Orange Bowl and Miami won it 20-14. Interestingly enough, Hurricanes head coach Randy Shannon was a starting linebacker on that Miami squad.

The Sooners defense will smother Kirby Freeman and the Miami offense, and despite the inexperience of QB Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray, will score just enough to post a 24-6 victory,

Take Oklahoma minus the points.

Tennessee can't be feeling too good about its performance against Cal. The Volunteers did put up 31 points, but the Golden Bears defense is going to be down this season. The Vols allowed 230 yards rushing (156 alone to Justin Forsett), and that type of effort will not cut it against the top backs in the country. Unfortunately, they must face another top RB this Saturday in Damion Fletcher.

Southern Miss, which returns 11 of its top 14 tacklers from a year ago, ranked 28th in the country in scoring defense (18.6 ppg) and 26th vs. the pass (180 ypg) last season. The Golden Eagles will put pressure on a weak Tennessee offensive line and force Erik Ainge to throw quicker than he would like.

I usually don't base many selections on trends, but this one is hard to pass up. The Vols are 10-26 as home favorites since 2001 and 1-9 the last two years. This is the second straight season they are facing a non-BCS school in week two between matchups with California and arch-rival Florida. Last year, they barely defeated Air Force at home, 31-30, when they were 20-point favorites!

Take Southern Miss plus the points.

Colorado will be one of the top 15 most improved teams in the country this season, but that doesn't mean the Buffaloes will be able to put up a fight in Tempe. Arizona State, which also makes the list, is by far the more talented club.

The Buffs were slightly outplayed by Colorado State in their opening contest, giving up 386 total yards. If the Rams can score three touchdowns on drives of 60 yards or more, imagine what the Sun Devils will do! In addition, ASU's defense ranked third in Pac-10 play last year, allowing 305 yards per game, and will hand Cody Hawkins his first-ever loss since his youth league days, a span of 60 starts.

Take Arizona State minus the points.

Michigan has not lost back-to-back games at home since 1994. That's what Oregon must face heading into Ann Arbor. The line opened with the Wolverines only favored by seven, approximately three points less than what it would have been if they hadn't lost to the Mountaineers. Nevertheless, it has risen to at least eight over the past 24 hours

This will be one high scoring affair. Michigan's defense will not improve from week one, while Oregon allowed 545 yards in its 48-27 win over Houston. The Ducks have the firepower to keep this one close and the winner might be whatever team has the ball last.

Take the OVER along with Oregon and the points.

There are many other games that jump off the page this week, including road underdogs Bowling Green at Michigan State and Rice at Baylor. The Falcons held off a late charge from Minnesota to win on the road in week one and have a chance to knock off another Big Ten club in the Michigan State Spartans. Look for Bowling Green to keep it close in what will be a shootout in East Lansing.

Take the Falcons and the points.

The next selection might come as a shock, but look for Rice to bounce back from its loss to Nicholls State and defeat Baylor in Waco. I cannot comprehend how Baylor is favored in this one. The Bears defense looked decent against the Horned Frogs, holding them to just 14 points in the first three quarters, but TCU was starting a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first collegiate appearance.

The Owls-Colonels game last week was played in miserable weather, which prevented the Owls offense from putting up their usual array of points. Look for their defense to smother the Bears, as Rice picks up the road win.

Take Rice plus the points as the Owls win this one outright.

Miss State is favored by almost a touchdown at Tulane. That alone should raise a red flag. The Green Wave have already beaten the Bulldogs twice the past four years and have a great chance at doing it again. They have been preparing well over a month for Miss State, while the Bulldogs used all their practice time figuring out how to stay with LSU.

Take Tulane plus the points.

Miami-Ohio and Bowling Green both had off seasons a year ago and both will be among the most improved clubs in the country. The RedHawks dusted off Ball State on the road and now take on Minnesota, the team that lost to Bowling Green.

The RedHawks bring back twice as many starters as they did a year ago and as was the case with the Falcons, could very easily upset the Golden Gophers at the Metrodome.

Take Miami-Ohio plus the points.

New Mexico State and New Mexico hook up for the 98th time with the Lobos winning four in a row. The last time the Aggies held the Maloof Trophy was in 2002 when they finished the season at 7-5. New Mexico lost to UTEP last week and the Lobos are just 5-7 at home the last two seasons.

Take New Mexico State plus the points.

Finally, Clemson hosts UL-Monroe. If this game were to be played later in the season it would not be a major selection. However, the Tigers just defeated a huge ACC rival in Florida State in Bowden Bowl IX on Monday night and will have an extremely short week to prepare for this contest.

The Warhawks led Tulsa 17-14 at halftime last Thursday night before falling, 35-17. They have had well over a week to study film of Clemson and will be getting a ton of points. UL-Monroe lost by only two points at Kansas in week two last year and dropped another two-point decision at Kentucky. The Warhawks are 9-3 as road underdogs the past two years, while Clemson is 4-6 as a home favorite over the same time frame.

Take UL-Monroe plus the points.

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