College Football Has Arrived

By Jeff Frank Aug 31, 2007, 20:11 GMT

Philadelphia, PA - After months of preparation, it's time to put all the hard work into action as the 2007 college football season begins.

Saturdays are made for wagering, but just as important as gambling is making sure to watch as much of the action as possible. The more games viewed, the better chance of catching key plays that might not show up in the box score.

Sometimes statistics can be a gambler's best friend, but other times they can skew the actual results. Last year's Syracuse team is a perfect example of the latter. The Orange finished the season ranked 110th in the country in total offense and 107th in total defense, but was outscored by an average total of just 7.2 points per game (17.4-24.6). The reason? Quarterback Perry Patterson threw only four interceptions in 300 passes and the defense led the Big East with 15 forced turnovers in its eight conference games.

Syracuse was a +8 in turnover margin in its first five games and its record reflected the good fortune with a 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS start. In games the club failed to gain more turnovers than its opponents, its record was 0-3 both SU and ATS. Overall, the Orange finished 8-1 ATS in the nine games they were on the plus side in TO differential.

WHAT TO DO DURING THE WEEK

If you're not able to watch all the action (and even if you are), I implore all my readers to buy a notebook and keep track of all 119 FBS schools. After each week of the season jot down each club's rushing, passing and turnover statistics, along with its opponents' numbers. More often than not, patterns will begin to form and you'll quickly spot how well each squad is doing in different areas and be able to match it against the next opponent.

A shining example of how effective this can be is Tulsa's 2006 campaign. The season began with a 5-1 SU and ATS record in its first six lined games. The only hiccup came vs. the BYU Cougars, who had a fantastic season in their own right.

Tulsa held North Texas, Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Memphis to under 300 yards each of total offense, with the latter three clubs finishing with 243, 241 and 232 yards respectively.

The Hurricane then defeated UTEP 30-20 at home on October 27, failing to cover the 15-point spread. Steve Kragthorpe's club once again held its opponent under the magical 300-yard mark, but the Miners came close with 293. That game was the first contest since September 9 that Tulsa did not win ATS.

The defense, which had been so solid for most of the season, was beginning to crumble. A trip to Houston came next, and the Cougars offense ripped right through the Hurricane 'D' for 471 yards and a 27-10 victory, a game in which Tulsa was actually favored.

Rice followed Houston on the schedule, and for those who had been keeping track of how poorly the Hurricane defense had fared the previous two weeks, this contest was a golden opportunity to fatten the wallet.

The Owls were riding high on a three-game winning streak piling up 421, 420 and 471 yards in the three victories. Tulsa was favored by 14.5-points, but the Owls were in complete control early with a 20-7 halftime advantage. Rice managed to hold on to win in double overtime, 41-38, and gained 356 yards in the process.

It was readily apparent that Tulsa was in free-fall mode, but was still favored on the road at SMU. The Mustangs racked up 369 total yards en route to a 34-24 win and those who wagered against the Golden Hurricane were reaping the rewards.

FOUR GAMES TO WATCH ON SATURDAY

The first week of the season can sometimes present golden opportunities IF you prepared yourself with enough useful information during the summer months. The betting lines on some games might not reflect key suspensions or injuries, and one of those games is Eastern Michigan at Pittsburgh.

The Panthers are favored by 20 points, which is extremely high considering how poorly Pittsburgh has played under Dave Wannstedt. Pitt had a wild preseason with prized freshman quarterback Pat Bostick leaving school due to personal problems before returning the second week of camp. Top wide receiver Derek Kinder will miss the season with a torn ACL, and their most experienced offensive lineman, Mike McGlynn, still hasn't fully recovered from off-season shoulder surgery.

The Panthers, just 2-2 in their last four tries against the MAC, begin the season with a new quarterback (Bill Stull) and must move forward without its top three tacklers from a year ago. They also lost their last five games in '06 and have an 11-12 record in Wannstedt's two years after five straight bowl appearances under Walt Harris.

Eastern Michigan comes into Heinz Field after winning just one of its 12 games last year. However, the Eagles finished the season covering five of its last seven, including three straight on the road. They lost only nine of 48 lettermen (19%) and over the course of the last three years, 23 of the 28 teams that returned at least 80% of their lettermen improved their records the following season. They also have zero injuries to speak of, which bodes well for this opening week matchup.

Tailback Pierre Walker started just five games the last two years, and sophomore QB Andy Schmitt, who has a half-year of experience under center, gained valuable experience watching from the sidelines during spring practices while recuperating from shoulder surgery. Both are 100% healthy and ready to go.

The defense, which held four of its last six opponents under 20 points, should be even better in '07. The unit loses just two of its top 20 tacklers and will improve against the run as defensive tacklers Jason Jones and Josh Hunt are among the best in the MAC.

This has all the makings of a close, low scoring contest with the Panthers pulling out a 20-10 victory at home.

Take Eastern Michigan and the under.

Another MAC squad that has a chance to pull off an upset is Bowling Green. The Falcons travel to Minnesota to take on the Golden Gophers, a team in transition heading into week one of the season.

Minnesota will change from a very successful run-based attack to a spread formation, and the modification will take a few weeks to be fine-tuned. The defense dominated the offense throughout most of the scrimmages, which is not a good sign considering the Gophers have never been known for holding down an opponent. Add onto all this the suspension of cornerback Dominic James, and you have a team ripe for the taking.

The Falcons will exploit Minnesota's secondary as they return to a pass-based offense so successful earlier in the decade. Tyler Sheehan replaces Anthony Turner at quarterback in hopes of igniting the attack, and he'll have a host of weapons to throw to including Corey Partridge and Freddie Barnes.

Bowling Green won only four games last year and some of the ineptitude was due to poor special teams. Alonso Rojas had four punts blocked and his overall net average was 27.7, while kicker Sean Ellis missed more field goals than he made. The Falcons have brought in two junior college players to fix the problems and both replacements have head coach Gregg Brandon smiling.

Minnesota is favored by two touchdowns and Bowling Green has a chance to win the game outright.

Take the Falcons and the points.

Miami-Florida has named Kirby Freeman its starting quarterback over Kyle Wright in its game vs. Marshall, but it really doesn't matter who starts against a Thundering Herd defense decimated by injuries.

Marshall ranked 102nd in the nation last year allowing 29 ppg and 101st in total defense, giving up over 390 yards per game. Those numbers will be even higher with Albert McClellan and Zearrick Matthews on the sidelines. (McClellan will miss the season with a torn ACL and Matthews is out for a few weeks with a broken arm.) McClellan's injury leaves the Herd extremely weak against the run.

This is a huge game for the Hurricanes who will want to immediately erase the images of a 7-6 season, so look for them to come out fighting from the outset. On the other hand, Marshall's big game is not at Miami, but next week at home against in-state rival, West Virginia.

Miami is favored by 18 points and will blow the Herd back to Huntington.

Take the 'Canes minus the points.

Army and Akron hook up in Cleveland, Ohio on Saturday night and neither team might be able to muster 10 points. Akron's strength is its defense, with eight returning starters coming back from a unit that held its final three opponents last year to a combined 50 points.

The Zips offense is a different story. Both quarterbacks, Chris Jacquemain and Carlton Jackson (one career attempt combined) will play in the opener. In addition, most of last year's receiving threats are no longer on the team. Look for RB Dennis Kennedy to be the focal point of the offense, which will play right into Army's hands.

The Black Knight's run defense, which finished 115th in the nation last year, will be much improved in '07. The front seven will hold Kennedy in check and force Akron's quarterbacks to throw much more than they would like to.

Army also might go with two quarterbacks, as both David Pevoto and Carson Williams have demonstrated a decent ability to run the offense during scrimmages. The running game is solid, but must move forward with an inexperienced offensive line.

I'm surprised Akron is favored by almost a touchdown and that the over/under is in the 40s. This game is definitely not going to be a one-sided affair, and neither club will be able to score at an efficient pace to warrant that high an over/under number.

Take the UNDER, and the Cadets plus the points.

During the summer, I mentioned three first-week contests that are sure-fire victories: Georgia Tech over Notre Dame, Central Florida plus the points against N.C. State, and Troy plus the points vs. Arkansas. All three remain solid week one plays.

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