Philadelphia, PA - State mottos and nicknames usually just
serve as filler in tourist brochures, but the faithful in Bozeman and Missoula,
Montana now have a real event to represent their states sayings.
'The Treasure State' was delivered a bounty on Sundays playoff selections for
the NCAA Division I Football Championship, with rivals Montana State and
Montana joining together to live up to their state motto of Oro y Plata as the
Gold and Silver winners for the day.
Montana State takes the top prize by claiming presumably one of the last two
spots in the field. The Bobcats were part of a group of four-loss teams hoping
to break the trends over the past decade. Eastern Illinois got in with an 8-4
mark, but they were somewhat expected with an 8-2 record against I-AA/FCS
competition. That left Montana State, Portland State, UNI and Wofford battling
it out for a spot with 7-4 records, with the Bobcats and Vikings likely ending
up in a duel for a playoff bid.
I predicted Portland State for the postseason field on Saturday night, since
they did have a strong schedule, good numbers in the computer rankings and no
bad losses. But there is no need for a long diatribe to figure out why Montana
State was selected. On October 7, the Bobcats knocked off Portland State, 14-0,
at home. That victory, along with a win in the season opener at Colorado,
allowed the Bobcats to rise above the Vikings in the pecking order and make the
postseason for the first time since 2003.
Portland State and others could argue that Montana States bad losses should
have kept them out of the field, but there can be no real legitimate complaints
from the teams left out of the postseason picture. Four losses usually end
postseason hopes, and none of the teams that fall on the outside did enough to
have a beef about being excluded. The selection committee was treading in
uncharted waters by selecting from a group of four-loss teams, and they showed
that significant wins and success in head-to-head competition against teams in
the same position can trump bad losses when all else is equal.
If a playoff selection was all they earned, Montana States fortunes would not
be all that remarkable. But the Bobcats also got a home game with a 7-4 record.
And, that home game comes against a Furman team that did not dominate opponents
in an 8-3 season and has to travel across the country to Bozeman for a first-
round date. Suddenly, a Bobcat team that was happy just to be in the field gets
its first home playoff date since 1984 to go in search of the first playoff
victory since that national championship season.
That all adds up to a great day for the fans in Bozeman, who had a short-lived
sulking period following a 13-7 loss at Montana on Saturday. The faithful in
Missoula had a night to celebrate that victory, and probably got a surge of
noontime enthusiasm when they saw a bracket that sets up perfectly for a trip
to at least the semifinals. The Grizzlies beat out Massachusetts in what had to
be a close call for the No. 2 seed, and are rewarded with a first-round date
against 7-4 McNeese State. Waiting in the second round will be UT-Martin or
Southern Illinois, both teams that the Grizzlies should match up favorably
against. Get past that, and a team from the Northeast will likely have to make
the trek out to Missoula for the semifinals. While Montana might have to deal
with a good Massachusetts or New Hampshire team in the semis, it has to love
the way the committee has paved the road to Chattanooga.
The Bobcats and Grizzlies were placed on opposite sides of the bracket, which
means a meeting in the national championship game on Dec. 15 is at least a
possibility. Thats a long way off and would take a lot from both teams, but
the second season is off to an encouraging start for both teams in The Treasure
State.
Below, I take a look at some of the other interesting aspects of the field of
16.
Top Four Seeds: By the end of the day on Saturday, the four teams that would
earn playoff seeds became obvious. Appalachian State had solidified its case as
the No. 1 seed, and Youngstown State had a clear case for the No. 4 position.
The only question came from the placement of Montana and Massachusetts, who
both finished with 10-1 records that included no losses to I-AA/FCS teams and
recorded 8-0 conference marks. It appeared the committee could have flipped a
coin for those teams, though the Grizzlies victories over South Dakota State
and Cal Poly may have also helped them earn the No. 2 seed while Massachusetts
took the No. 3 position.
Good Draws: Weve already talked about Montana and Montana State, who have to
be thrilled with the position they have entering the postseason. Many of the
other matchups were expected or pit comparable teams, but Eastern Illinois and
Hampton have to enjoy their position as well. The Panthers host Illinois State
and Hampton plays host to New Hampshire, so ending the playoff struggles for
their conferences becomes a realistic possibility. Southern Illinois is the
other non-seeded home team, and the 8-3 Salukis also get a good matchup against
playoff newcomer UT-Martin.
Bad Draws: What did Youngstown State and James Madison do to draw the wrath of
the committee? The Penguins earned a playoff seed after being left out of the
field last season, but face a Dukes team that is probably at No. 5 overall
coming into the postseason. And the game is a very peculiar matchup for another
reason for James Madison, who appeared to be in position to play a regional
contest against Hampton and would have been a logical candidate for a home game
with an impressive overall resume. To make matters worse for both teams, they
go into a strong top half of the bracket that would includes a potential
second-round matchup with Illinois State and a trip to Appalachian State for
the semifinals. Illinois State and Furman get sent to the road, and the
Paladins face the daunting task of heading all the way to Montana State.
Appalachian States road to the title appears to be a bit more difficult than
No. 2 seed Montana.
First Round Matchups: All eyes will be on James Madisons trip to Youngstown
State, as a team that most had penciled into the quarterfinals and holds
legitimate national championship hopes will go home in the first round
regardless of who wins. Furmans trip to Montana State is an interesting duel
between different regions of the country. UT-Martin and Coastal Carolina make
their playoff debuts at Southern Illinois and Appalachian State, respectively.
McNeese State and Montana meet in the postseason for the fourth time, with the
Cowboys holding a 2-1 advantage but the home team winning every game. Illinois
State and Eastern Illinois meet in a rematch of the regular season contest that
Illinois State won, 44-30, but this time the Panthers will play host. New
Hampshire is at Hampton in a battle of a good passing offense against a good
defense, and Lafayette goes for its first playoff victory in its third
appearance with a trip to Massachusetts.
The second time around: The game between Illinois State and Eastern Illinois is
somewhat of a surprise because the two teams met in the regular season, and the
committee usually does not create a first-round rematch. The quarterfinals do
often feature rematches of regular season games, and as many as three of the
four games could have second meetings this year. Furman and Appalachian State
would be set for another date in Boone if both advance in the first round.
Youngstown State could host Illinois State in the quarterfinals, while
Massachusetts could draw New Hampshire. Appalachian State, Youngstown State and
Massachusetts won those regular-season contests.
Regionalization?: The playoffs are often put together with a regional emphasis
in mind, but that is not present in all of the first-round matchups. Furman
makes the long trip out to Montana State, while a seemingly clear matchup
between Virginia teams James Madison and Hampton will not take place with JMU
making a longer trip out to Youngstown State and New Hampshire coming to
Hampton.
Extending the Streaks: Montana stretched its consecutive playoff streak to 14
years in a row. Southern Illinois is beginning to emerge as a playoff perennial
as well, as Jerry Kills Salukis are in the field for the fourth time in a row.
A quartet of teams is also hoping the third times a charm in their playoff
success. Lafayette and Hampton are still looking for their first playoff
victory after losses in the past two seasons, while New Hampshire and Furman
will try to extend their stay in a third consecutive postseason. Eastern
Illinois and Appalachian State are in the field for the second straight season.
Welcome to the Show: Coastal Carolina and UT-Martin are first-time entrants in
the field of 16, and the Chants are also the first representative from the Big
South Conference. Illinois State ends the longest playoff drought, as the
Redbirds are in the field for the first time since 1999. Youngstown State is
right behind with its first bid since 2000. Montana State, McNeese State and
Massachusetts are in after missing the playoffs for the past two seasons, while
2004 national champion James Madison is a playoff team after missing out last
year.
Former Champions: The last four I-AA/FCS champions were first-time winners, but
that trend could end this season with eight former champions in the field.
Every one of the four seeded teams has a title to its name, with four-time
champion Youngstown State and two-time champion Montana leading the way.
Furman, James Madison, Montana State and Southern Illinois also have one title
each.
Below is a capsule summary of each team in the field, with historical
information, personnel evaluations, and a formula for defeating each team
included.
#1 APPALACHIAN STATE (10-1, 7-0 Southern)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, Southern Conference. First Round: Coastal
Carolina. Playoff Appearances: 14th (86, 87, 89, 91, 92, 94, 95, 98,
99, 00, 01, 02, 05, 06). Playoff Record: 12-12 (one national
championship). Head Coach: Jerry Moore, 150-68, 18th year at Appalachian State.
Appalachian State summary: The Mountaineers havent missed a step since winning
the national title last season. After losing the season opener at North
Carolina State, the Mountaineers won their final 10 games of the season and
finished with a perfect record in the Southern Conference. They have an 18-game
overall winning streak against I-AA/FCS teams and have not lost a home game in
the last four seasons, so beating a Mountaineer team that plays at home for the
first three rounds will be difficult for any team. The offense can spread out
and produces 214.9 yards per game on the ground, with running back Kevin
Richardson (1065 yards, 19 TD) leading the way. Freshman quarterback Armanti
Edwards (1636 passing yards, 11 TD/8 INT) provides a dual-threat with 685
rushing yards and nine touchdowns in nine starts, while wide receiver William
Mayfield (867 yards, 5 TD) averages 18.4 yards per catch and is a big-play
threat. The defense might be the best in I-AA/FCS, with very good numbers
against the run and pass and only 12.5 ppg allowed. Defensive end Marques
Murrell (65 TT, 7 sacks) leads a team that has 24 sacks, while the linebacking
corps are solid overall. Safeties Jeremy Wiggins (62 TT, 5 INT) and Corey Lynch
(56 TT, 2 INT) form I-AAs best duo, though Lynch could miss more time with an
injury. Dexter Jackson is an explosive option in the return game with two punt
returns for scores.
How to Beat Appalachian State: The only I-AA/FCS team to beat the Mountaineers
over the past two seasons was Furman, and the Paladins only did it at home by a
field goal last year. The formula for beating the Mountaineers obviously still
has to be devised, but forcing Edwards to make mistakes is a good place to
start. The freshman has great athletic ability and has completed 61.7 percent
of his passes, but also threw eight interceptions to contribute to a high total
of 24 turnovers for the team. Shutting down the Mountaineer running game will
be difficult for most defenses, so forcing a few turnovers will be key. On the
other side, opponents need to control the ball against a defense that forced 23
miscues. Its going to be hard for anyone to move the ball consistently for 60
minutes against the defense, so hitting a few big plays, especially in the
passing game, would be integral in beating the Mountaineers.
#2 MONTANA (10-1, 8-0 Big Sky)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, Big Sky Conference. First Round: McNeese
State. Playoff Appearances: 17th (82, 88, 89, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98,
99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06). Playoff Record: 22-14 (two national
championships). Head Coach: Bobby Hauck, 39-12, 4th year at Montana.
Montana summary: It wouldnt be a I-AA/FCS postseason without Montana, who is
making its 17th playoff appearance overall and 14th in a row. The Grizzlies
come in with a head of steam this season with a 10-game winning streak, Big Sky
title, and No. 2 seed that will keep them at home until the national
championship game. The Grizzlies score a healthy 28.8 ppg, with Josh Swogger
(2029 yards, 11 TD/9 INT) distributing the ball to a quality group of wide
receivers. The running game has featured a few different players without the
services of Lex Hilliard, and Montana produces an average 136.5 yards per game
on the ground. Defense and special teams have played a large role in the
scoring total as well, as both units are capable of turning in big plays and
scoring on their own. Kroy Biermann (59 TT, 9 sacks), Dustin Dlouhy (54 TT, 4
sacks) and Mike Murphy (5 sacks) form a very strong defensive line, and the
Grizzlies have returned two of their 17 interceptions for touchdowns. Tuff
Harris has one of those, and also has two punt returns for a score. Dan
Carpenter (20-26 FG) leads the nation in field goals made.
How to Beat Montana: The Grizzlies have scored a lot of points, but there are
some holes to exploit in the offense. The running game does display a real
feature back, and shutting down the ground game will force Swogger to make
plays. He has proven capable of doing that at times, but also has played
erratically and works behind an offensive line that has contributed greatly to
ranking dead last in the nation with 41 sacks allowed. A strong defensive team
should match up well against the run and can get pressure on Swogger to keep
the offense from having a big day. Scoring on the defense will be tougher, and
that unit is solid against the run and the pass. Still, they havent faced a
top-notch running game this season, and a team with a big offensive line could
get a push against the defensive line. Keeping the Grizzly defense and special
teams from making plays will be key as well. With the No. 2 seed and home games
throughout at a venue where the Grizzlies are 20-4 all-time in the postseason,
any opponent would get an advantage by playing well early to minimize the
effect of the Washington-Grizzly Stadium crowd.
#3 MASSACHUSETTS (10-1, 8-0 Atlantic 10)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, Atlantic 10 Conference. First Round:
Lafayette. Playoff Appearances: 7th (78, 88, 90, 98, 99, 03, 06).
Playoff Record: 6-5 (one national championship). Head Coach: Don Brown, 23-10,
3rd year at Massachusetts.
Massachusetts summary: The Minutemen notched a banner season to make the
playoffs for the first time since 2003. They became the first team to go
undefeated in Atlantic 10 play since Villanova in 1997, went 10-0 against I-AA
teams and were just one point away from beating Navy and notching a perfect
11-0 season. Theyve done it with a very strong effort from the offense and
defense. Running back Steve Baylark (1308 yards, 10 TD) notched his fourth
1,000-yard season and seems to get stronger as the game goes on, and the
passing of Liam Coen (2179 yards, 20 TD/4 INT) and a quality group of wide
receivers gives a team that scores 28.9 points per game as much balance as
anyone in the country. The defense has displayed the same trait by performing
well against the run and pass, and is No. 2 in the nation with 11.3 ppg
allowed. They have talent and depth across the board, with Jason Hatchell (107
TT) leading the way at linebacker and James Ihedigbo (54 TT, 5 sacks) often
blitzing and making plays all over the field at safety. If it becomes a field
position game, punter Christian Koegel (40.5 avg) is one of the best around.
How to Beat Massachusetts: A defense that ranks second in the nation in points
allowed is obviously going to be very tough to beat, and the Minutemen gave up
less than 10 points in six games this season. They are physical up front and
feature a solid secondary, so a team with speed that can spread out the offense
would have a better shot. Maine moved the ball late in the game with
quarterback draws out of the shotgun, and teams with a dual-threat quarterback
that can keep the defense honest provide a tougher matchup. Scoring early and
holding a lead will be critical, because Baylark is a physical running back
that gets better as the game progresses and runs behind a quality offensive
line. He doesnt have great big-play potential, so keeping him down early on
will be integral. Coen hasnt made many mistakes, but he hasnt faced a ton of
pressure, either. Getting him out of rhythm with blitzes and different looks
will be important, though the receivers are all capable of burning one-on-one
coverage.
#4 YOUNGSTOWN STATE (9-2, 6-1 Gateway)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, Gateway Conference. First Round: James
Madison. Playoff Appearances: 11th (87, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 97,
99, 00, 06). Playoff Record: 23-6 (four national championships). Head Coach:
Jon Heacock, 41-26, 6th year at Youngstown State.
Youngstown State summary: After just missing the postseason with an 8-3 record
last year, the four-time champion Penguins are back in the field as the Gateway
Conference automatic bid with a 6-1 conference record and 9-2 mark overall.
They scored 32.1 points per game and ran for 240.6 yards per contest largely
because of running back Marcus Mason (1,496 yards, 19 TD) and a strong
offensive line. Mason did miss two games with injury this year, but Monquantae
Gibson (521 yards, 8 TD) is capable of carrying the load as well and finished
the year with 236 yards against Western Kentucky in Masons absence. The
Penguins dont go the air as much, but quarterback Tom Zetts (1476 yards, 10
TD/10 INT) has plenty of experience under center. The defense gives up more
than 340 yards per game, but that unit played very well down the stretch and
forced 21 turnovers. Marty Hutchinson (83 TT, 9 TFL) and James Terry (60 TT, 10
TFL) are the leading tacklers, with Codera Jackson (48 TT, 3 INT) and Jason
Perry (50 TT, 4 INT) forming a quality pair at cornerback.
How to Beat Youngstown State: To stop the offense, opponents will have to at
least slow Mason. The senior running back has five consecutive efforts of 170
yards or more, including a 265-yard game and a 249-yard game, and has six games
in a row with at least two touchdowns. The combination of Mason and a strong
offensive line will make it hard to slow the running game all day, but defenses
at least need a few key plays on first and second down to make the Penguins
pass. Zetts is capable, but he also threw four interceptions in a loss against
UNI and the Penguins dont feature a top-flight wide receiver. The Penguins
gave up 144.5 yards per game against the run and 197.3 against the pass.
Southern Illinois running back Arkee Whitlock had 218 yards and three
touchdowns in a 31-24 Youngstown State win on Nov. 4. A team with a strong
running game and good offense can move the ball, especially if they avoid
turnovers. If its close late, the Penguin kicking game is not outstanding.
COASTAL CAROLINA (9-2, 4-0 Big South)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: at Appalachian State. Playoff
Appearances: 1st (06). Playoff Record: 0-0. Head Coach: David Bennett, 34-10,
4th year at Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina summary: The meteoric rise of the four-year old Coastal
Carolina program took a giant leap in 2006 with wins over Furman and Wofford
and the first playoff berth for the school and for the Big South Conference.
The Chanticleers lived on the run for the last three seasons, but became a
balanced and explosive offense with quarterback Tyler Thigpen (2945 yards, 26
TD/10 INT) and wide receiver Jerome Simpson (945 yards, 14 TD) developing into
one of the best pass/catch combinations in the country and leading a passing
game that averages 279.8 yards per contest. Thigpens 633 rushing yards and
four touchdowns also aided a running game that tallied 190.3 yards per game,
and the offense scores 34.8 ppg and notches 470.2 yards per game. The defense
has been susceptible against the run, but only allows 146.4 yards per game
against the pass and tied for the national lead with 19 interceptions. Quinton
Teal and Dewitt Myers both have four interceptions, while Jamar Leath has a
team-high 108 tackles.
How to Beat Coastal Carolina: Run, run and run some more. The Chants are
allowing 183.6 yards per game and nearly 4.6 yards per carry on the ground, and
that number has actually improved recently against a softer schedule. They have
given up more than 200 yards four times, and allowed four rushing touchdowns
and more than 300 yards against Wofford and Georgia Southern. The Chants have
shown improvement down the stretch against weaker teams, but could still have
trouble matching up against teams with powerful running attacks. Top defenses
can limit the Chants running attack if they contain Thigpens ability to make
plays with his feet. Coastal Carolina can certainly pass with anyone in the
country, but most of the big plays go to Simpson. Keeping him from having a
huge impact on the game will be key, especially if the Chants are struggling to
stop the run on defense. If its close late, Coastal Carolina may be hurt by a
shaky kicking game. Placekicker Josh Hoke is 3-of-9 outside of 30 yards and has
a long of only 37, and punter Rob Williams averages a shade over 33 yards per
kick.
EASTERN ILLINOIS (8-4, 7-1 Ohio Valley)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: Illinois State. Playoff
Appearances: 11th (82, 83, 86, 89, 95, 96, 00, 01, 02, 05, 06).
Playoff Record: 3-10. Head Coach: Bob Spoo, 127-101-1, 20th year at Eastern
Illinois.
Eastern Illinois summary: The Panthers, with assistant coach Mark Hutson
running the show as Spoo has been out with health issues, are back in the
postseason field for the second year in a row. They played 12 games because of
a trip to I-A Hawaii, but finished with an 8-2 record against I-AA/FCS
competition and went 7-1 in the Ohio Valley Conference to earn an at-large
berth. The Panther offense revolves around the running game, with Vincent Webb
(1351 yards, 7 TD) doing the most work for a team that runs for 198.2 yards per
game. Quarterback Cole Stinson (1270 yards, 12 TD/8 INT) is capable of making
things happen in the passing game, and can go to wide receiver Micah Rucker
(966 yards, 13 TD) for big plays. The numbers arent outstanding for a defense
that gives up 20.9 ppg, but the unit was playing well down the stretch and
limited opponents to 120 yards per game on the ground. They really made a
living off of turnovers, leading the nation with 32 takeaways that include 19
forced fumbles. Donald Thomas (122 TT) and Tristan Burge (101 TT) are the
units top players.
How to Beat Eastern Illinois: The Panthers have more balance this season on
offense, but they still want to win by running the ball. Shutting down Webb and
the rest of the running game will force Eastern Illinois to pass. They have the
potential for success there, but arent as accustomed to producing through the
air. The Panthers also have 15 interceptions for the season, so the chance for
mistakes goes up when they go to the air. Avoiding mistakes will be the key
against the defense. Eastern Illinois has been one of the top teams in the
nation at forcing turnovers for the last two seasons, and can change a game
with its ball-hawking ability. However, a strong offense can move the ball if
they dont commit many miscues. Teams with a good passing game really should
match up well, since the Panthers have allowed 14 touchdown passes and 213.4
yards per game through the air.
FURMAN (8-3, 6-1 Southern)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: at Montana State. Playoff
Appearances: 15th (82, 83, 85, 86, 88, 89, 90, 96, 99, 00, 01, 02,
04, 05, 06). Playoff Record: 17-13 (one national championship). Head Coach:
Bobby Lamb, 43-18, 5th year.
Furman summary: The Paladins had to fight their way through games, with six
contests decided by seven points or less, but some last-minute magic and a 4-2
record in those outings helped propel them to an 8-3 overall record and a spot
in the postseason for the third year in a row. Injuries slowed an offense that
scored 25.6 points per game, but the Paladins had a week off for quarterback
Renaldo Gray (1045 yards, 3 TD/2 INT) and fullback Jerome Felton (670 yards, 22
TD) to heal. With Cedrick Gipson (845 yards, 4 TD) also in the backfield, the
running game averaged 174.1 yards per contest and should be strong if everyone
is healthy. If Gray cant go, Jordan Sorrells (822 yards, 4 TD/3 INT) can see
action and does have experience in key spots. The Paladin defense often held
the team together with six games of 17 points or less allowed. Linebacker
Andrew Jones (112 TT) leads a defense that has acquitted itself nicely against
the run and pass.
How to Beat Furman: Overall, the Paladins played well on defense this season.
But in the losses, Furman gave up 45, 29 and 40 points. They were shredded on
the ground in a 40-7 loss to Appalachian State, and gave up three passing
touchdowns in a 29-27 defeat against Coastal Carolina. Furman did a good job
against the rest of the Southern Conference, but teams with good offensive
firepower can probably move the ball on the defense. The Paladins also become a
different team if Gray and/or Felton are not able to play at 100 percent. Both
players make the running game even better, but opponents will catch a break if
they are not up to full speed. Whether they are or not, limiting the Paladin
running game will be huge. Both quarterbacks are fairly inexperienced, and an
offense that threw for 173.4 yards per game does not want to be forced to win
through the air.
HAMPTON (10-1, 7-1 MEAC)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, MEAC. First Round: New Hampshire. Playoff
Appearances: 5th (97, 98, 04, 05, 06). Playoff Record: 0-4. Head Coach:
Joe Taylor, 130-43-1, 15th year at Hampton.
Hampton summary: With their third consecutive automatic berth out of the MEAC,
the Pirates are in their third postseason in a row. Despite losses in the past
two playoff trips, they have a 31-4 record over the past three seasons. Running
back Alonzo Coleman (909 yards, 11 TD) has been a huge part of the success, and
he appeared to be back in form after an injury-plagued season with 181 yards
and four touchdowns to close the season against Florida A & M. The Pirates run
for 175.7 yards per game, and developed a stronger passing game this season
with Princeton Shepherd (1564 yards, 15 TD/4 INT) posting a solid season. The
defense leads the nation against the pass and picked of 15 passes. Cornerback
Travorous Bain (5 INT) led the way in that category, with defensive end Kendal
Langford (51 TT, 13.5 TFL, 7 sacks) and Buchanan Award candidate linebacker
Justin Durant (84 TT, 12 TFL) as standouts at their positions.
How to Beat Hampton: The Pirates are more adept at passing this season, but
they would still prefer to run the ball. They only attempted 163 passes all
season, and want to control the tempo and win the game with Coleman and Kevin
Beverly on the ground. If opponents can handle that duo, the Hampton offense
will be put in an uncomfortable spot of winning through the air. The defense is
great against the pass, and has not allowed more than 17 points since the
season opener against Grambling State. But they did give up 139.2 yards per
game on the ground, and were gashed for 268 rushing yards in a 13-6 loss to
South Carolina State. Richmond ran all over the Pirates for 251 yards in last
years first round playoff game, and a team with a quality running attack could
overwhelm a Hampton defense that doesnt face top-notch attacks during the
season.
ILLINOIS STATE (8-3, 5-2 Gateway)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: at Eastern Illinois. Playoff
Appearances: 3rd (98, 99, 06). Playoff Record: 2-2. Head Coach: Denver
Johnson, 40-38, 7th year at Illinois State.
Illinois State summary: Illinois State returns to the postseason for the first
time since 1999 with a team that features a handful of standout players and the
ability to score in bunches and play solid defense. Running back Pierre Rembert
(1507 yards, 15 TD) has received a heavy workload to lead a rushing attack that
garners 168.9 yards per game, while the passing game is explosive with Luke
Drone (2595 yards, 19 TD/5 INT) throwing to a quality group of wide receivers
that features Laurent Robinson, who has been coming on of late after being
slowed by injuries early in the season. The offense is averaging 30.2 ppg, and
has tallied more than 30 points five times. The numbers arent as sparkling
overall for a defense that gives up 20.1 ppg, but the Redbirds feature the best
linebacking corps in the nation with Cameron Siskowic (130 TT) Kye Stewart (115
TT) and Niall Campbell (89 TT). The Redbirds are near the top of the country in
turnover margin, with 19 turnovers forced and only 10 giveaways.
How to Beat Illinois State: When Youngstown State beat the Redbirds, 27-13, in
Normal, the game statistics opened some eyes. The Penguins ran for 345 yards
and four touchdowns, while limiting the Redbirds to 155 yards of total offense.
Holding an explosive offense to that low of a number would be asking a lot, but
opponents have been able to move the ball against the defense. Five running
backs have 100-yard efforts this season, and the Redbirds are allowing 201.6
yards per game through the air. They dont have very many sacks or tackles for
a loss, so an opponent with a quality offense could have a good day if they
dont turn the ball over. Stopping the Redbirds will be more difficult,
especially with Robinson coming on late in the season. They have thrived with
balance all year and give Rembert a heavy workload, so limiting his
effectiveness and making the attack one-dimensional will be key. Creating
turnovers will be difficult, but UNI notched four in the season finale. Winning
the turnover battle will be a must for teams that cant match scores with the
Redbirds.
JAMES MADISON (9-2, 7-1 Atlantic 10)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: at Youngstown State. Playoff
Appearances: 7th (87, 91, 94, 95, 99, 04, 06). Playoff Record: 6-5 (one
national championship). Head Coach: Mickey Matthews, 56-39, 8th year at James
Madison.
James Madison summary: After sitting out the postseason last year, the 2004
national champions are back in the playoffs with a 9-2 record that includes a
7-1 mark in the Atlantic 10. James Madison reeled off a seven-game win streak
that included a win at New Hampshire, and got the offense rolling after a slow
start to score 32.6 ppg. In his third year as a starter, quarterback Justin
Rascati (1900 yards, 19 TD/6 INT) was a big part of the success with good
numbers through the air and 425 yards on the ground. He aided a running effort
that notched 215.6 yards per game and really took off when Eugene Holloman (995
yards, 8 TD) started to take a bulk of the carries. Leading receiver L.C. Baker
is a threat in the receiving and return game. The defense was one of the
nations best all year, and led the country with 48 sacks while allowing just
15.1 ppg. The Dukes feature at least one standout player at every position,
with defensive end Kevin Winston (62 TT, 16 TFL, 11 sacks) and Buchanan Award
candidate linebacker Akeem Jordan (126 TT, 16 TT) posting huge numbers and
opponents often staying away from safety Tony LeZotte (73 TT).
How to Beat James Madison: The Dukes are one of the more balanced teams in the
country, so its hard to find one weakness to attack. Rascati has proven he can
win games with his arm when asked to and has the experience of making plays in
the postseason, but opponents would rather force the Dukes to win through the
air than have them grind it out on the ground all day. In James Madisons two
losses, Rascati attempted 27 and 29 passes, his highest totals of the year.
Taking an early lead and getting ahead going into the fourth quarter will be
critical, because the James Madison running game and defense would be difficult
to come back on late. Few teams have run successfully on the Dukes, but the
defense does allow 184.5 yards per game through the air, as well as 64.6
percent of passes completed against them with only six interceptions. A lot of
those numbers were amassed in garbage time, but the Dukes can be susceptible to
the short passing game, which could also open up the running game or a chance
for a big play. Picking up positive yardage on the first two downs will be
especially important, since opponents wont want to face the Dukes pass rush
in an obvious throwing situation.
LAFAYETTE (6-5, 5-1 Patriot)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, Patriot League. First Round: at
Massachusetts. Playoff Appearances: 3rd (04, 05, 06) Playoff Record: 0-2.
Head Coach: Frank Tavani, 38-41, 7th year at Lafayette.
Lafayette summary: When the Leopards suffered a five-game losing streak and
went 49 days between wins on Sept. 9 and Oct. 28, few observers could have
expected a Patriot League championship and third consecutive trip to the
postseason. But thats exactly what happened, as Lafayette won its final four
games and earned the conferences berth to the postseason by knocking off rival
Lehigh, 49-27. The Leopards have done it mostly with running and defense in the
past, but bring a balanced offense that averaged 27.5 ppg, including at least
27 points in each of the last five games. Quarterback Brad Maurer (2099 yards,
11 TD/9 INT) provides experienced play under center, and can also make plays
with his feet with 283 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. That
aided a rushing attack that posted 174.2 yards per game largely because of a
huge season from running back Jonathan Hurt (1181 yards, 15 TD), who had at
least 135 yards four times in the last five games. The defense gave up 21.4
ppg, and got a big season from linebacker Andy Romans (103 TT).
How to Beat Lafayette: In the last two seasons, Lafayette has given a good
effort in road losses at Delaware and Appalachian State. The Leopards also have
three consecutive wins against Lehigh, so they are not going to fold in the
pressure of a big game with Tavani at the helm. But while the mindset is the
same, the Lafayette defense isnt quite as tough as it was in the past two
seasons. The Leopards have given up 334.5 yards per game, and arent great
against the run or pass. They allowed 24 points or more five times, and could
have a long day against a quality offense. The Leopard offense is playing with
a lot of confidence right now, but opponents need to show that they are
stepping up a notch after succeeding in the Patriot League. They can run and
pass effectively, but the offense has really taken off when Hurt has big days.
Keep him from going wild, and force Maurer and the passing game to do most of
the work.
McNEESE STATE (7-4, 5-1 Southland)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, Southland Conference. First Round: at
Montana. Playoff Appearances: 12th (91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 97, 98, 00,
01, 02, 03, 06) Playoff Record: 11-11. Head Coach: Matt Viator, 6-1,1st
year at McNeese State.
McNeese State summary: Nothing came easy for the Cowboys, but they made it
through a tough start to the season and head coaching change to rally for wins
in the final five games and win the Southland Conference. Matt Viator took over
as the head coach when the team sat at 1-3, and the Cowboys still went on to
lose the league opener against Texas State before winning out the rest of the
way. They found a way to win road games by a field goal at Stephen F. Austin
and Northwestern State, and got just enough on offense and defense every game.
Derrick Fourroux (1374 yards, 10 TD/7 INT) emerged as the starter at
quarterback and brings a running option with 370 yards and five touchdowns on
the ground. The Cowboys feature multiple running backs, but have success with
175.8 rushing yards per game. The defense has forced 30 turnovers, with a knack
for forcing fumbles with 18 on the season. Bryan Smith (64 TT, 12.5 sacks) is
the units top playmaker. The special teams are very strong. Placekicker Blake
Bercegay (16-18 FG) has stepped up in big spots, and Stephen Whitehead (17.6 PR
avg) is a threat every time he touches the ball.
How to Beat McNeese State: Run and stop the run. Its a simple and basic
formula that works against most teams, but a team that can winning the running
battle against McNeese State will gain a huge advantage. The Cowboy defense
surrenders 165.8 yards per game on the ground, and gave up 253 yards to Sam
Houston States D.D. Terry. They do have the ability to force fumbles and cause
turnovers, but a team that can run and take care of the ball could have success
moving on the defense. The Cowboys do run the ball well, so opponents will want
to gear on that attack to force Fourroux to win the game through the air. Hes
still getting his feet wet and completes only 53.8 percent of his passes, and
McNeese State does not want to have to rely on the passing attack. Let a Cowboy
team that commits a ton of penalties shoot itself in the foot. Stopping
Whiteheads impact on the game will be key as well, since he can change the
momentum with one or two big plays.
MONTANA STATE (7-4, 6-2 Big Sky)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: Furman. Playoff Appearances: 4th
(84, 02, 03, 06). Playoff Record: 3-2 (one national championship). Head
Coach: Mike Kramer, 39-42, 7th year at Montana State.
Montana State summary: The Bobcats used a couple of huge wins and momentum late
to become one of two four-loss teams to make the playoff field. They had wins
against I-A Colorado and Portland State, and won six of the final seven games
overall with only a 13-7 loss at rival Montana in the season finale. The
offense has displayed an up-and-down effort throughout the year, and scored
19.4 ppg for the season. They have used a pair of quarterbacks to throw for
225.3 yards per game, though Jack Rolovich (1212 yards, 8 TD/9 INT) has
received most of the workload lately. Aaron Mason (573 yards, 7 TD) has the
best numbers on the ground, but the Bobcats only manage 98.5 rushing yards per
game. Wide receiver Michael Jefferson (842 yards, 8 TD) has mixed big games
with average efforts, but has the potential to turn in a big play or two. The
defense is the strength of the team, with 21.4 ppg surrendered and five efforts
of 18 points or less allowed in the past six games. Linebacker Bobby Daly (107
TT, 10.5 TFL) leads the way, and a talented secondary has helped record 12
interceptions.
How to Beat Montana State: If you shut down Jefferson, the Montana State
offense can be contained. He had huge games when the Bobcats scored 39 points
against Northern Arizona and 42 against Idaho State, but the offense struggled
down the stretch when he was contained by Weber State, Northern Colorado and
Montana. Montana State quarterbacks have thrown 17 interceptions and the
running game is suspect, so a defense that shuts down Jefferson could be in
good shape to force a miscue from a team with 23 turnovers. Scoring on the
Bobcat defense might be more difficult, but the Bobcats have given up a few big
days through the air. Teams that try to win by throwing the ball will have to
avoid turnovers and contain a defense that has 27 sacks, but the Bobcats could
be susceptible to a powerful passing game.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (8-3, 5-3 Atlantic 10)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: at Hampton. Playoff Appearances:
5th (91, 94, 04, 05, 06). Playoff Record: 2-4. Head Coach: Sean McDonnell,
52-40, 8th year at New Hampshire.
New Hampshire summary: The Wildcats needed to go to overtime to beat Maine,
19-13, on the seasons final day to do it, but they are back in the playoffs
for the third year in a row. The offense has been slowed somewhat late in the
season by tough Atlantic 10 defenses, but no opponent can sleep on a Wildcat
attack that features two of the games top players and averages 36.5 ppg.
Payton Award candidates quarterback Ricky Santos (2681 yards, 23 TD/5 INT) and
wide receiver David Ball (82 receptions, 990 yards, 11 TD) lead a passing game
that tallies 249.6 yards per contest. Santos has also run for 385 yards and 12
touchdowns to help the Wildcats run for 155 yards per game, though that number
has slipped late in the season. The defense allows 22.7 points per contest, and
has struggled at times against the run. The unit has forced 21 turnovers.
Husain Karim and Jeff Pammer are the leading tacklers, though the Wildcats
could really use a healthy Corey Graham for the defense and return game.
How to Beat New Hampshire: After three years, there is finally a defensive
blueprint to slow down Santos and the high-powered Wildcat offense. Richmond
and James Madison were the first teams to limit New Hampshires offense by
shutting down the running game and keeping Santos and Ball from making any big
plays. Santos threw 46, 66 and 55 passes in New Hampshires three losses, but
the defenses were able to keep plays in front of them. The Wildcats
explosiveness through the air can still help them win games in that fashion,
but a good defense can slow the running game and create long third down plays.
Limiting Santos scrambling ability will also be key to keeping New Hampshires
offense in check. The Wildcats still figure to put points on the board, but
opponents have been able to move on the defense, especially on the ground.
James Madison had 259 yards and four touchdowns, and a quality offense can move
the ball, score some points and keep Santos and company off the field.
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (8-3, 4-3 Gateway)
How They Got Here: at-large bid. First Round: UT-Martin. Playoff Appearances:
5th (83, 03, 04, 05, 06). Playoff Record: 4-3 (one national championship).
Head Coach: Jerry Kill, 34-25, 6th year at Southern Illinois.
Southern Illinois summary: Head coach Jerry Kill and his staff had already done
a remarkable job by turning a struggling program into a three-time playoff
participant, but they added to the resume by leading the Salukis to a fourth
consecutive playoff appearance despite significant losses from last season on
both sides of the ball. First-year starting quarterback Nick Hill (1555 yards,
14 TD/3 INT) acquitted himself nicely and didnt make many mistakes. Of course,
Hill didnt have to carry the team because running back Arkee Whitlock (1541
yards, 21 TD) continued to show he is one of the best in nation and led the
explosive Saluki ground game to 247.5 yards per game and the offense to 37.2
points per outing. The defensive numbers suffer in the offense-heavy Gateway
Conference, but the Salukis notched 29 sacks and 74 tackles for a loss. Lornezo
Wims, Micah King and Chauncey Mixon all had at least four sacks, while Brandin
Jordan led the team with 95 tackles. Craig Coffin made 14-15 field goals, and
has a very good track record over his career.
How to Beat Southern Illinois: The phrase 'you cant stop him, you can only
hope to contain him' was coined for players like Whitlock. The senior running
back averaged 5.8 yards per carry and was only kept below 100 yards on two
occasions. Worse yet for Saluki opponents, he was picking up even more steam at
the end of the season. Shutting down Whitlock and the Saluki running game will
be asking a lot, but opponents would be wise to get an extra player or two in
the box to try to limit Whitlock and dare the Salukis to pass. Hill has proven
capable of making plays and tight end Braden Jones is tough to stop, but no
wide receiver has more than 20 catches and Hill has not thrown more than 23
passes in any game. The Salukis havent committed many turnovers, but they
havent forced many, either. If that continues, potent offenses can score on
the Southern Illinois defense. Five Gateway teams had 23 points or more, and
UNI and Youngstown State both had more than 200 rushing yards in November
games.
UT-MARTIN (9-2, 6-1 Ohio Valley)
How They Got Here: automatic bid, Ohio Valley Conference. First Round: at
Southern Illinois. Playoff Appearances: 1st (06). Playoff Record: 0-0. Head
Coach: Jason Simpson, 9-2, 1st year at UT-Martin.
UT-Martin summary: After nine consecutive seasons with two wins or less from
1996-04, the Skyhawks built on a 6-5 campaign in 2005 to become an unlikely
playoff team with a 9-2 mark in Jason Simpsons first season at the helm. They
won eight consecutive games after losing at I-A Ohio in the season opener, and
used a dominating running game and defense to success. Donald Chapman (1304
yards, 13 TD) has posted five 100-yard efforts, and leads a running game that
produces 219.3 yards per game. The passing game hasnt produced much, with
quarterbacks Greg Preston and Dexter Anonka splitting time. The defense ranks
in the top 15 nationally against the run and pass, and allows just 13.8 points
per game. Linebacker Markeseo Jackson (80 TT, 4 sacks) is the units top
player, and the defense has forced 23 turnovers. Jesse Burton is one of the
nations top kick returners, with a 27.2 average and two touchdowns.
How to Beat UT-Martin: In any game, especially in the playoffs, getting off to
a lead is a huge boost. But an opponent that jumps ahead of the Skyhawks could
have an even greater advantage than usual. UT-Martin is new to the playoffs and
played a fairly soft schedule overall, so an early hole could cause the
Skyhawks to have doubts, while they can build confidence if the game stays
close. A deficit would also take the Skyhawks out of their comfort zone of
running and playing defense and force a passing attack that averaged 104 yards
per game and tossed eight interceptions and eight touchdowns in the unfamiliar
territory of needing to produce a comeback. The defense has been tough in every
area, but Eastern Kentucky just ran for 165 yards and three scores two weeks
ago. The Skyhawks havent faced many top offenses, and could have trouble
against a quality running game that would also limit their ability to create
turnovers. On defense, stopping Chapman and forcing the Skyhawks to throw is an
obvious key. Burton has to be contained in the return game, but opponents can
take advantage of the UT-Martin kicking game.
© 2006 The Sports Network
USA
Your Talkback on this Story