Notes from the Wastland: Fearless Emmy predictions

By Nina Berry Aug 5, 2006, 18:02 GMT

Last week’s column outlined the shows and actors I thought were unjustly passed over for Emmy nominations.  So I won’t spend more space here boo-hooing about how Battlestar Gallactica or Edie Falco should win.  I’ll stick to the official nominees.  Darn it.

Drama Series
Should win:  The Sopranos
Will win: Grey’s Anatomy

Don’t get me wrong, Grey’s Anatomy is a terrific show.  But it relies far too heavily on background music to hammer home its emotional points.  Say it with me:  Ob-vi-ous!  The Sopranos, by contrast, is as subtle and pleasurable as a soft breeze carrying the scent of orange blossoms.  That’s an odd thing to say about a season that not only involves a man in a bad toupee stabbing a very fat mobster multiple times with a chopping knife, but also the unceremonious mugging of Lauren Bacall.  But The Sopranos always suprises, always conveys its messages deep beneath its violent, crass New Jersey surface.

Actor in a Drama Series
Should Win: Peter Krause, Six Feet Under
Will Win: Kiefer Sutherland, 24

A tough choice, but Krause’s final season on Six Feet Under was brilliant.  Kiefer’s the reason I watch 24, but the show didn’t give him the opportunity to show the same subtle depths as Krause. 

Actress in a Drama Series
Should Win: Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Will Win:  Kyra Sedgwick

She’s got the best written role of the five nominated here, and her show’s a hit, not a has-been, so she just might win.

Supporting Actor, Drama
Should Win: Michael Imperioli, The Sopranos
Will Win: Gregory Itzin, 24

It’s hard to quibble with any of these terrific nominees, but I think 24’s got the buzz and will nab a bunch of acting trophies.

Supporting Actress, Drama
Should win:  Jean Smart, 24
Will win:  Jean Smart

Who knew this former Designing Woman had such depth.  Smart is brilliant in this complex role.  I’m betting that the two nominees from Grey’s Anatomy will split that vote, but I’d be happy to see Chandra Wilson win too. 

Comedy Series
Should Win:  Arrested Development
Will Win:  The Office

Any of the nominees here deserve to win, except Two and a Half Men.  I think The Office has the buzz behind it, but I’d love for Arrested Development to win before it vanishes forever off to comedy heaven.

Actor in a Comedy Series
Should Win: Steve Carrell, The Office
Will Win:  Steve Carrell

Another tough category, but I think Steve Carrell is a better actor than the brilliantly funny Larry David.  David’s himself, albeit a fantastic improviser, while Carrell is really someone else.

Actress in a Comedy Series
Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine
Will Win:  Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Please please please do not let anyone else win.  It’s a crime that Mary Louise Parker and Lauren Graham were shut out to make way for a bunch of performances that were old hat by comparison.  At least Louis-Dreyfus still has her show on the air!

Supporting Actor, Comedy
Should Win:  Will Arnett, Arrested Development
Will Win: Jeremy Piven, Entourage

I won’t be disappointed it Piven wins it, but Arnett is the funniest of a very funny lot on his show.

Supporting Actress, Comedy
Should Win:  Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Will Win:  Jaime Pressly, My Name is Earl

Pressly’s a tad one-note in an otherwise terrific cast, while Perkins lends subtle depth to her bitchy portrayal.

Miniseries:
Should Win: Bleak House
Will Win:  Into the West

Elizabeth I is neck and neck with Bleak House on this one for me.  Both were brilliant and worth a rental if you missed them.  But the bloated Into the West received an embarrassing number of nominations and thus will probably win.

Made for TV Movie
Should Win:  I have no idea.
Will Win: Mrs. Harris.

I didn’t see any of the nominees, alas.  I’ve heard no buzz and am just taking a stab that HBO will nab this category once more.

Okay, that’s it.  No more Emmy talk until they air Sunday, August 27.  With Deadwood off the air by then, I guess I just have to watch.  Wish me luck!