German climate expert sees some positive movement in climate debate

Nov 3, 2011, 19:32 GMT

Stockholm - Growing investments in renewable energy sources and increasing political awareness in several key nations were positive signs of progress to tackle the challenges of climate change, a leading researcher said Thursday.

John Schellnhuber, head of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, made the assessment shortly before he was to accept the 2011 Volvo Environment Prize, worth 1.5 million kronor (228,000 dollars), at a ceremony in Stockholm.

The jury cited him for having 'applied rigorous, quantitative background to Earth System science,' and developing concepts like 'tipping elements.'

Schellnhuber said he had not decided what to do with the 1.5 million kronor (228,000 dollars) in prize money.

In May, he attended a meeting in Sweden where the so-called Stockholm Memorandum, calling for action to tackle climate change and poverty, was adopted by among others 20 Nobel laureates.

The memorandum has been 'cited a lot,' Schellnhuber told dpa on Thursday, noting it was to be included in a pending report from a UN panel on global sustainability co-chaired by the presidents of Finland and South Africa.

He also welcomed a discussion of the document at the upcoming UN climate conference in Durban, South Africa. He said South African President Jacob Zuma was scheduled to attend a seminar on the document.

The memorandum's message would be 'amplified' and 'much more powerful' if Zuma as leader of an emerging economy endorses it, he said.

As an advisor to, among others, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Schellnhuber said it was necessary to have 'a certain patience' for proposals to be adopted by the political system.

While the Durban conference was unlikely to result in 'a breakthrough in international climate policy,' it could serve as a staging point for key events in 2014 and 2015, he said.

In 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to present its fifth assessment report 'with a lot of new science,' while the following year there would be a 'major review of climate goals' under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, he added.

'According to our climate analysis, we have to peak global emissions by 2020, so the 2015 review is just the right point in time to do it,' he said. 'Then the world has to decide.'

Asia, especially China and India, will play a growing role, he predicted, citing strong investments in China in solar energy and wind power.

'We are at the threshold to an industrial revolution,' he said. 'There is a new energy system emerging now, where you can make a lot of money.'