For public, nuclear energy no longer foe, but friend

Dec 2, 2007, 8:31 GMT

Vienna - The days when nuclear energy was the embodiment of environmental danger seem long gone. With global warming at the top of the international agenda, nuclear power has turned 'green.'

World leaders are set to debate a successor to the Kyoto Protocol in December in Bali, Indonesia, with pressure growing for key players such as the US, China and India to cut carbon dioxide emissions blamed for global warming. Under those conditions, a global revival of the nuclear industry may be on the books, experts say.

'If they want an agreement where the United States, but also China and India are to join, the exclusion of nuclear energy won't be acceptable,' Hans-Holger Rogner, a nuclear energy expert at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told Deutsche Presse- Agentur dpa.

The world's energy demands are expected to double within the next few decades, as rising nations such as China and India continue their charge to the top of the world's industrial leagues.

Around the world, 32 nuclear power stations are currently under construction - 16 of them in Asia, according to the latest assessment by the IAEA, published in late October. India alone plans to expand its share of nuclear-generated energy eightfold to 10 per cent by 2022.

At present, 435 operational reactors in 30 countries provide 15 per cent of the world's energy, with individual countries supplying from 2 per cent (China) to 78 per cent (France) of their needs from nuclear power, says the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog.

While that figure is actually lower than the 437 that were in operation 10 years ago, applications to build new plants, which sometimes can take a decade, have been on the rise along with rebounding public confidence in nuclear power since the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster and the accident at Three Mile Island in the US in 1979.

In the United States, more than 50 per cent of people are now in favour of nuclear energy, recent surveys said, up from just above 40 per cent in 2000.

The pattern across Europe is more varied, but even there, 166 reactors are currently in operation, with debate on the issue reemerging in once resolutely anti-nuclear states such as Germany and Italy.

Consumers in the developed world would still prefer non-nuclear energy sources, but if costs come into play the pendulum quickly swings towards pro-nuclear, experts say.

'As long as it is cheap, the public does not care too much,' said Rogner, who is also a member of the UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

'An accident would be an absolute showstopper in the western world. ... (but) developing countries would not hesitate even one second,' he added.

Even green campaigners, who formerly regarded nuclear power as the source of all evil, have either endorsed nuclear energy because of its low greenhouse gas emissions or moved on to more promising battlegrounds.

The complete nuclear power process emits only between 1 and 6 grams of carbon equivalent per kilowatt hour (Kwh), compared with coal's 1,000 to 1,300 grams/Kwh). Other factors adding to nuclear's new-found green credentials are improvements in technology and performance, which put it on a par with renewable alternatives like wind and make it more secure than gas.

While eco-concerns dominate changing attitudes to nuclear power, several other issues have played into a possible nuclear revival - rising energy prices, energy security, and geopolitics.

Many nations are concerned that oil and gas sources depend on states in geopolitically fragile regions such as the Middle East. Uranium, the main material for nuclear fuel, is located in stable countries such as Australia, South Africa and Canada.

Price is another issue. The cost of initial investment in nuclear power is high, but operation costs are low. With ever rising oil prices, the bitter pill of initially capital-intensive nuclear energy may become interesting even for developing countries.

'Oil prices of 20 to 30 dollars are history. But even if oil prices go down to 40 or 50 dollars, nuclear energy would be feasible for many countries,' Rogner said. Oil prices are currently close to 100 dollars per barrel.

Still, to change attitudes for good, the nuclear industry and governments will have lessons to learn.

Concerns about nuclear proliferation, safety, security and the storage of toxic nuclear waste still have to be addressed, advocates of nuclear energy say. And transparency must be increased in order to reassure the public that the positive aspects of nuclear power really do outweigh the dangers.