Main facts in global warming report

Apr 6, 2007, 18:00 GMT

Brussels/Washington - An important international climate report released Friday in Brussels anticipates catastrophic consequences for humans as well as other species as the Earth warms from heat-trapping gasses produced by human society.

In February, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected the Earth's average temperature would rise by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius given the current rate of emissions.

A summary of the IPCC's second report released Friday - the work of more than 2,000 scientists over six years - anticipates the following consequences of the rising temperature:

- One-sixth of the world population - including 1 billion people in Central, South, East and South-East Asia - could experience water shortages by century's end. These people depend on water supplies from mountain glacier melting, which would initially grow by 10 to 40 per cent but then diminish by century's end through evaporation and use.

- By mid-century, water supplies could decrease by 10-30 per cent in dry regions and the tropics. In Africa by 2020, an estimated 75 to 250 million people are projected to be exposed to water shortages.

- 20 to 30 per cent of plant and animal species known to humanity are 'likely' (meaning a more than 66-per-cent chance) to be at increased risk of extinction if temperatures rise 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius this century. Major changes would occur to ecosystem structures, the way species interact, and the geographic ranges of species.

- Production of food and forest products at higher latitudes would initially increase slightly, but then decrease, given a 1 to 3 degree Celsius temperature rise. For Asia by mid-century, crop yields could increase by 20 per cent in East and South-East Asia; but decrease up to 30 per cent in Central and South Asia.

- At lower latitudes and tropical regions, crop productivity would decrease and hunger increase with a temperature rise of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. In Africa, yields from rain-fed agriculture crops could be reduced by up to 50 per cent by 2020.