Endless population, shrinking resources

By Alexandra Stahl Oct 26, 2011, 12:16 GMT

Berlin - The global population will reach 7 billion by the end of October, according to projections by the United Nations, and the continued growth in the number of humans has led to concerns about the resultant strain on the planet's ecosystem and resources.

A baby is born every 2.6 seconds but the Earth's natural resources are finite. There are already food and water shortages. Inequality, discrimination, human rights abuses, lack of democracy and climate change exacerbate the problem.

Experts believe the answer to these issues lies in the promotion of sustainable production and recycling.

The 7-billion-mark will be reached on October 31. The UN predicts that the global population could hit 10 billion by 2100 if fertility levels in all countries converge to replacement level.

Population growth is most pronounced in emerging and developing countries such as China, India and Nigeria. The German international development organization Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevoelkerung (DSW) even projects that by 2051, the combined population in those three countries will grow from 5.7 to 8 billion people by 2051.

But how will all these people be provided for? The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) estimates that by the middle of this century a space three times the size of the Earth will be required to sustain the global population if lifestyles don't change.

Industrialised countries are currently guilty of wasting enormous amounts of food simply because 'use before' dates have expired, storage depots are too small or agricultural products have small defects.

The problem is compounded by the ever-growing demands on the planet's fresh water supply.

'There are regional conflicts in nearly every area where there is a shortage of water,' says Max Schoen, president of the German Association for the Club of Rome, an informal group of leading personalities from politics, business and science, who share a common concern for the future of humanity and the planet.

Schoen believes that the number of conflicts over water resources will only grow in the future, and this can be best prevented by increased regulation to prevent excessive farming in regions where water is scarce.

Companies also need to rethink how they operate by promoting sustainable production methods such as working with suppliers to ensure water is used more sparingly and less CO2 is produced.

'It's important that companies take the initiative and induce others to follow suit,' he says.

Schoen is chairman of an initiative called '2°', a grouping of firms whose objective is to limit the level of global warming to two degrees celsius compared to the global temperatures before the industrial revolution.

Sustainable resource exploitation and recycling are seen as the main policies to help address the future use of the planet's resources.

'Geologically there are enough mineral resources, including metals,' says Volker Steinbach of the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources in Hanover.

Shortages mainly result from political or market forces, which can be addressed.

'We have to work intensively on recycling, developing new mineral reserves, as well as resource efficiency and substitution,' says Steinbach, whose scientific team is currently investigating methods of exploiting manganese nodules in deep seabeds.

Ore nodules the size of potatoes lie at depth of 4,000 metres on the Pacific Ocean floor and, for the most part, are rich in iron and manganese.

The presence of copper, nickel, cobalt and other rare minerals used in high-technology industries is also especially interesting from an economic perspective.

Although it will take decades before manganese nodules can be exploited in an economic manner, long-term research into the area is considered the best option for the future.

The situation with oil is different as various experts believe the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction will be reached by 2030, after which the rate of production will enter terminal decline.

Steinbach believes peak oil is a huge challenge facing the Earth, especially when considering the exploration for new reserves and the development of new technologies.

People are reliant on the resource rather than on its function, according to Steinbach.

'We don't need oil. Instead, we just want transport from point A to point B, or to live in a warm room,' he says.

These requirements can also be achieved through the greater use of natural gas and renewable energies as well as increased energy efficiency, he says.

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