Can the G8 act as one on climate change?

Science Features

Jun 24, 2008, 6:36 GMT

Brussels - When the leaders of the world's seven richest countries and Russia meet in Japan next month, it is anybody's guess whether they will be able to agree what to do about climate change. Activists from environment group Greenpeace paint the words 'Quit Coal' on the driveway of the Department of Energy in Taguig City, east of Manila, Philippines, 03 June 2008. EPA/ROLEX DELA PENA

Activists from environment group Greenpeace paint the words 'Quit Coal' on the driveway of the Department of Energy in Taguig City, east of Manila, Philippines, 03 June 2008. EPA/ROLEX DELA PENAAt present, diplomats around the world are debating whether, and how, they will be able to replace the Kyoto Protocol on climate change when it expires in 2012. The participation of the world's richest countries is seen as crucial to any deal. But the Group of Eight (G8), due to meet in Toyako on the Japanese island of Hokkaido on July 7-9, is bitterly divided. Four members - European Union heavyweights Germany, Britain, France and Italy - have already pledged to cut their emissions of carbon dioxide by 20 per cent no matter what the world does, and 30 per cent if other major powers do the same. But the United States, which refused to ratify Kyoto out of fears that it could harm the US economy, insists that it will not sign up to any emissions-reduction deal which does not impose strict limits on rising powers - and potential rivals - China and India. Canada ratified Kyoto but has failed to cut emissions since. It is thought unlikely to join a future pact unless the US does the same. Japan has been quicker to move, promising on June 9 to launch an emissions-trading scheme and cut its emissions by up to 80 per cent before 2050. As the host country, it stands to gain considerable international credit if it can broker a G8 deal on a Kyoto successor. That imperative should line it up alongside the EU states, who have pushed hard for a deal, seeing their unprecedented pledge on emissions cuts as proof of moral leadership on the issue. But the pledge may not carry all the weight that EU leaders hoped. The most recent figures from the EU's emissions-monitoring scheme, released on April 2, showed that in 2007 the industrial plants and power stations of Germany and Britain not only failed to cut emissions: they boosted them, by 1.88 and 2.16 per cent respectively. France and Italy, the other EU members of the G8, only managed negligible cuts - 0.27 per cent and 0.47 per cent, respectively. That failure by Germany and Britain, in particular - two of the most vocal advocates for international deals to cut emissions - could well end up as their Achilles heel in climate talks. States such as the US, who question whether emissions cuts are compatible with economic growth, are likely to say that the figures prove their claims. Developing economies such as China and India already argue that it is unfair to ask them to make expensive changes to their industrial models if the West is not going to do the same. EU states are also debating how to protect their industries from competition in countries where emissions rules are less stringent. The failure of such key EU members to make any cuts at all could leave the plan open to accusations of simple protectionism. In the heated atmosphere - both literally and metaphorically - much will depend on Russia, as it did when Moscow's support tipped the balance to bring the Kyoto Protocol into belated effect in 2005. Some observers hope that Russia, whose emissions plunged in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet industrial base, will support an international deal based on reducing emissions to below 1990 levels, since this would allow it to claim that it has already hit its target and thus cash in on credits. But others warn that the resurgent state, whose booming economy relies on oil and gas exports, could say that its reviving industrial base should not be hampered by Western-imposed emissions caps. Hope remains, however. The Japan summit will both be the first for Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, who is anxious to portray himself as a statesman of world stature, and the last chance for US President George W Bush to overturn his reputation as a man who refused to act on climate change in his eight-year term of office. At this month's EU-US summit in Slovenia, Bush predicted there would be a climate deal before his term expires at the end of the year. Few observers took the pledge seriously. But if Bush and Medvedev can find common ground on the issue, the results of the Hokkaido meeting may yet be as important as those of Kyoto a decade before.

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SP4: Don't Like Coal?Jun 25th, 2008 - 14:20:11

Go see Barack Obama's past...

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ShariJun 25th, 2008 - 19:15:07

I would like to see the G8 agree to offer free tubal ligations and vasectomies worldwide so that we can bring the population back down to a level that is not endangering all of life on the planet.

And end all subsidies for coal, oil, and meat and dairy production.

If the free market were allowed to operate and things cost what they should, people would have to stop buying meat and dairy and those are major sources of greenhouse emissions.

Take the subsidies for coal, oil, meat and dairy, and give everyone access to free sterilization.

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SP4: I have an idea, ShariJun 27th, 2008 - 23:10:57

..for anyone who wants to reduce the population of the earth I recommend that they terminate their own lives, first. Don't you worry, we'll be right behind you, Shari!

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Mr MeltdownJun 30th, 2008 - 07:06:36

The politicians will gather and have a jolly nice time, they will make lots of promises and then return home and pretend to do something, pull out some dodgy figures and then sing their own praises and blame others for the lack of action and in the meantime the World gets on with global warming.

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SP4: Mr. No MeltdownJun 30th, 2008 - 14:08:05

...all of the above predicated on the sketchiest of science.

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Mr Meltdown ; SP4Jun 30th, 2008 - 21:24:59

I think the evidence that global warming exists is now overwhelming.
I think that the evidence that it is man made is convincing.
If you think the evidence is flimsy you need to research more.

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NoharnessJul 1st, 2008 - 12:04:18

I'm on the northern fringe of the Houston heat island this morning. It's the first day of July. The temperature is 68F.

One more summer like this and you boys aren't going to have a case.

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Mr MeltdownJul 2nd, 2008 - 09:45:09

Sorry about the cool weather in Houston but if you look at a sattelite immage of the polar ice you will see that from the pole itself and towards Greenland and Canada and Alaska the Arctic ice is breaking up. Add the summers albedo effect to that and you have meltdown.
The scary thing is that the sun shines constantly in summer in the polar regions and with no ice to reflect the suns energy the whole region could become very warm and perhaps we could return to the past climates when crocodiles lived in the arctic regions. Of course we will not have to worry about the crocodiles because if that were to happen the rest of the world would be probably uninhabitable.

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SP4: Professor MeltdownJul 2nd, 2008 - 16:46:58

'climate science is the most non-linear phenomena in the universe...the idea that one factor is driving climate change, which is always changing, is highly suspect'

- John R. Christy, Director of the Earth Science Center, IPCC participant, Uiverstiy of Alabama, Co-recipient with Al Gore of the Nobel Prize.

Science, Professor, is not about proving, it is about disproving. While this does not make them wrong, it certainly does not prove they are right.

Do some more research, Professor.

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NoharnessJul 2nd, 2008 - 20:18:31

I also wonder why there is never any mention of the massive undersea volcanoes beneath the Arctic Cap.

This whole nightmare got started with poorly collected data and then was compounded by the political machinations of CONSERVATIVE politicians. The Leftist have since latched hold on it and are now doing a wonderfully good job of beating us about the head and shoulders with it.

This is ninety-nine and ninety-nine one hundredths pure political oogunga.

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