Political People: Ron Paul’s mystery poll percentage for Iowa

We’ve been watching the political jockeying for both Iowa and New Hampshire, and are convinced that GOP candidate Doctor Ron Paul, who has raised stunning amounts of money from average Americans, will either pull a miracle performance in votes, or fizzle out completely after both caucuses.

The Iowa caucus poll from Lee Enterprises newspapers including the Globe Gazette  shows the Democratic race is a virtual three-way tie, with John Edwards rising to tie Barack Obama for the lead and Hillary Clinton rising to just one point behind.

What about popular Joe Biden and Bill Richardson?

The poll showed Democrats Bill Richardson was fourth with 7 percent. Joe Biden was fifth with 3 percent. Chris Dodd and ground control to Major Dennis Kucinich both had 1 percent and 2 percent were undecided.

The interest for us is really in the Republican side, where a Baptist preacher, Mike Huckabee remains in the lead with a 7-point edge over the picture-perfect Mormon candidate, Mitt Romney.

For Republicans, Huckabee leads with 34 percent, followed by Romney with 27 percent. Ex actor Fred Thompson is a distant third with 11 percent, followed by a three-way tie for fourth between Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Ron Paul, with 8 points each. Duncan Hunter had 1 percent and 3 percent were undecided.

Ron Paul is tied with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain?

The poll, which has a margin or error of plus or minus 4.5 percent, was commissioned by Lee Enterprises and conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000.

There is plenty of room for shifts in the final days before the Jan. 3 caucuses, with 19 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans saying they are likely or very likely to change their minds.

The bottom line for Democrats is an already-close race is now closer.

The Republican race appears more stable at the top, with Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, gaining 3 points since the poll two weeks ago, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gaining 5 points. Fred Thompson, the former U.S. senator from Tennessee, gained 2 points. McCain and Paul each gained 1 point, while Giuliani lost 1 point.

The shifts in the Republican race appear to be driven by movement of undecided voters to one of the top two candidates, with undecided voters dropping from 12 percent to 3 percent between the two polls.

How do you think Dr. Paul will finish overall in Iowa? Who are your Democrat and Republican winner picks for the upcoming caucus? 

Note the date on this article may be incorrect due to importing it from our old system.

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