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Political People: Ron Paul's mystery poll percentage for Iowa
By Stone Martindale Dec 30, 2007, 0:02 GMT
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Older Talkback
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sic em' sp4
I think Biden will pull a surprise for the dems
the republicans - McCain will do better than expected, I think Paul will too,
Rawn Pawl :O
I think Ron Paul will surprise us in Iowa. He has a strong grass roots organization there and he will be pulling in a lot of Independents. He's also been running heavy TV and radio ads as well as some billboards. I also know there was a letter writing campaign that had about 600,000 letters written to Independents as well as phone banks. Also, Ron Paul is the only candidate saying we must leave Iraq. The anti-war vote is going to be a big factor. Finally, Ron Paul supporters, once decided, do not switch and are typically much more enthusiastic because they want real change, not status quo. This inspires them to recruit friends and family to vote. I predict a strong 3rd place finish.
Fox is excluding him from their debate, two days before the caucus. HOWEVER, with the incredible motivation and enthusiasm of his supporters I think he will easily take third, possibly second and conceivably First.
Duncan Hunter is the only true conservative running in this race.
www.gohunter08.com
For the Republicans-
I think Romney will come in first. His organization on the ground will top Huckabee's late uphill charge.
Huckabee will do a very respectable second, probably less than 3% behind Romney.
Paul will come in third place. I don't think that's a surprise to anyone paying attention to the organization on the ground and the fervor of his supporters. I suspect he'll come in less than 5% behind Huckabee.
McCain will pull in 4th. He's got a good base still in place and folks are disenfranchised with many of the other candidates.
For the Democrats-
It's anyone's guess.
I suspect that Clinton, Obama and Edwards are all going to be within 5% of each other. I'd guess it'll come down Clinton, Obama and Edwards, in that order. I wouldn't bet anything on it, though.
Huckabee is siphoning voters from Thompson, Giuliani and Romney, not from Paul. Paul at the last Iowa straw poll got around 9% (he made fewer visits than other candidates including Huckabee and was still an obscure candidate). I'm pretty sure that this time around, he would do better than 15% or possibly 20%.
shm
I have been calling Iowa voters. I have spoken with 200 of them.
Ron Paul will win in Iowa.
No one has mentioned Huckabees name to me
Paul will win Romeny and Gillianni will come in behind him.
that is very encouraging for the Paul supporters
whenever i hear hints of positive outcomes for Ron Paul, i want to cry. and the only time i ever cried in life was when my doberman of 12 years died. the future of the whole world will change for the best or worst, depending on whether Ron Paul succeeds.
GO RON GO RON GO RON!!!
MAY ALL THE FORCES OF GOOD IN THE UNIVERSE PROTECT YOU AND CLEAR THE WAY FOR YOU!
I have been watching Ron Pauls campaign very close, and from what I see I would be willing to bet on him winning. If he doesn't win, he will come in second place. What is with the media not giving Ron Paul coverage like the other candidates. They are afraid he is going to win. He will show very well in Iowa and then win in New Hampshire. Go Ron Paul.
Paul will hopefully finish last.
Well Jake, luckily for you, we live in the real world and are not crossing our fingers for no appearent reason. By the way, back in reality, theres a Futurama marathon on the Cartoon Network, thats pretty cool right Jake?
Everyone on both sides is the same - except for Ron Paul - he is the only candidate that speaks the truth and makes sense. Do we want our country to descend even further into the big government trap? The world where a 'cut' is defined as a 'reduction in the rate of increase'? The only candidate who stands for social freedoms, fiscal responsibility and limited government. No wonder the establishment is afraid of this guy.
I truly believe Paul will pull off a huge upset.His supporters are the least polled and most passionate and therefore the most likely to vote.
I believe Ron Paul's campaign is the loudest, but did we get the message out to Republican's?
I think we can do better throughout the campaign and if we get the truth out there, people will join... that's how I joined the revolution.
Iowa I think Romney will be first, Ron Paul will be second, Huckabee third, then McCain and Thomson... Guliani... who's that?
WIth all Pauls support he will show good in Iowa and in NH where you can register and vote at the polls he will win..The young will be out in droves.
I have been calling voters as well for Richardson, and he has much more support than the media and the polls would likes folks to believe. The way the Dem caucus works can allow him to pull votes from Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich supporters as well. May people are upset that the '2nd tier' with all the experience has not received the free publicity they deserve. Ron Paul also has a great showing of support. When I travel across Iowa, his huge signs are the ones I see the most out in the country, where a few staunch supporters can get the ear of their friends with similiar views. I believe that since both of these candidates are both for ending the war in Iraq, that will hit a note with voters here in Iowa on caucus night tomorrow.
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