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Mar 8, 2008, 16:43 GMT
Bush confident of stimulus package amid sharp job losses
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And, there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Saddam was involved with 9/11, the oil in Iraq will pay for the war, etc., etc., etc.
What a joke, and he is actually our President---what a shame.
Hillary Greenlighted this war.
Her hubby, in name only, greenlighted Nafta, GATT, WTO and sold China MFN status for money.
Bush is not responsible for the mortgage mess
the dems stifled domestic energy drilling for 30 years - congratulations
No one ever said oil would pay for a war, only reconstruction.
wagging the dog.
THIS article is about the economy; one of many areas in which SP4 is bereft of knowledge or understanding.
(Bush seems completely unaware of that's going on in the country he allegedly runs; and that's led to slow action by the Fed, now turning into desperation in terms of policy. The Times article linked explains it well, and Bush has no competence or tools to turn this around. He's created a crisis of confidence in that there's no exit strategy in terms of spending for the war(s), and the health-care and other veteran-related expenses are mounting. The nation went on a spending binge from the $1.6 trillion generated from mortgage cash-outs, leving homeowners equity-poor, since they counted on rising home prices to offset the equity lost in the cash-outs. This is much the same fallacy as thinking that 'GDP growth' is going to compensate for lower revenues directly due to lower tax rates for the top 5 percent of earners; and that growing entitlement costs don't have to be dealt with)
www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/business/08econ.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
The worst fears of consumers, investors and Washington officials were confirmed on Friday, as deepening paralysis on Wall Street collided with stark new evidence of falling employment and a likely recession.
In a report that was far worse than most analysts had expected, the Labor Department estimated that the nation lost 63,000 jobs in February. It was the second consecutive monthly decline, and the third straight drop for private-sector jobs.
Even before the bad news on jobs emerged, the Federal Reserve was already racing to ease the latest crisis in the credit markets, where seemingly rock-solid companies have been caught short because the markets are devaluing the collateral they had posted to back billions of dollars in loans. Much of that collateral consists of mortgages.
(The answer seems to be for the Federal Government to take on the risk of further loss of value on mortgages by becoming the buyer of last resort - that's YOUR money at risk, since the taxpayer 'owns' the Federal Debt.)
'In a surprise announcement early Friday, the Federal Reserve said it would inject about $200 billion into the nation’s banking system this month — with more to come after that — by offering banks one-month loans at low rates and in return letting them pledge mortgage-backed bonds and even riskier assets as collateral.'
(The Fed is simply out of options in dealing with a credit crisis, and is doing the only thing that they can - substituting the Fed's money for the private sector's. The problems of the monolines (Ambac, MBIA) are now spreading to private equity firms and others with mortgage-backed securities. Seeing Carlyle unable to meet margin calls just demonstrates that credit is very difficult to come by. Calling Bush's $168 billion package 'irrelevant' is an understatement, since the Fed just allocated AT LEAST $200 billion in one move.)
'In a surprise announcement early Friday, the Federal Reserve said it would inject about $200 billion into the nation’s banking system this month — with more to come after that — by offering banks one-month loans at low rates and in return letting them pledge mortgage-backed bonds and even riskier assets as collateral.'
www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/business/08econ.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
The convulsions in the credit markets were spurred in part when Thornburg Mortgage, one of the nation’s biggest independent mortgage lenders, and Carlyle Capital, the offspring of one of the country’s largest private equity firms, failed to meet demands by lenders to post more cash or pledge other assets, also known as margin calls, on debts that had been backed by packages of mortgages.
Fed officials said Friday that they were not pumping money into the system in response to the poor jobs data but rather to the growing unwillingness or inability of investors to finance even routine business deals. Fed officials have long feared that anxiety about credit losses would create a “negative feedback loop,” or self-perpetuating spiral of rising unemployment, more home foreclosures and yet more credit losses.
“You have big credit losses that make it harder to get new credit, which means the economy starts to slow down and foreclosures go up,” said Nigel Gault, a senior economist at Global Insight, a forecasting firm. “Then you get even bigger credit losses, which makes banks even less willing to lend and you keep spiraling down.”
The Fed’s problem is that its main weapons against a downturn — lower interest rates and easier money — are ill suited to a crisis that stems from collapsing confidence about credit quality.
Even though the central bank sharply cut short-term interest rates twice in January and clearly signaled that it would cut them again on March 18, rates for home mortgages have risen and rates for many forms of commercial loans have jumped sharply.
“There has been a tug of war under way between deteriorating credit conditions and monetary policy,” wrote Laurence H. Meyer, a former Fed governor and now a forecaster at Macroeconomic Advisers. As a result, he said, credit conditions have remained almost as tight as ever.
i hope they don't send me a check.
it will go to the trash .anything bush comes up with has got to be bad
and a screwing..file 13
The Annapolis conference, touted as a 'solution' for the Mideast, was then downplayed in expectations. Today, Israel is once again in military conflict with Hamas.
No one believes that either Bush or the Fed has any solution to a lack of credit available for lending. Everything that Bush has to say is dismissed as press agentry, and discounted. All he can do is make announcements, without any policy follow-through. World markets are reacting as the dollar continues to drop.
New statistic - 'The Federal Reserve reported that Americans' home debt exceeded their equity for the first time since the central bank began tracking the figures in 1945. Homeowners' percentage of equity fell to 47.9 percent in the fourth quarter.'
...Bush has nothing to do with corrupt lenders and people who lie on their applications. In fact, he was the one who stepped up to help, something us conservatives just hate!
As for the dollar, read todays op-ed in the WSJ titled 'please support the dollar, just not yet!' You see, exports are up, because the dollar diff makes them cheap.
International trade is a hedge against the shittie dollar. It's so bad euro ministers are squealing now, because it's affecting their export numbers.
Orders for non-construction items are strong. All kinds of companies are doing well. In fact, we will still have a GDP growth (1.5%?) for the quarter.
The thing you libanzis need to remember is this: your 45 year old model of the economy is over. All commodities are rising. cheap oil is over. We outsource everything. Years of dem rule wiped out domestic oil exploration, domestic manufacturing, and the jobs with it. Were it not for the trade blocs, we'd be in sorry shape.
If Obama or Hirrary think they can raise taxes, spend and grease their way to success, they had better look around. Most of all, they made this happen selling influence to China with MFN status for China. They sold out the unions and now they are supported by them.
Which candidate was on the Board of Walmart anyway???????
It's an election year, so he stepped up with his usual useless remedy. He's not running any more (the first good news in 8 years) so the GOP has moved from 'Milhaus' to 'millstone'.
Bush has contributed through increasing the National Debt from the starting 2001 level of 5.776 trillion to the current 9.3 trillion/plus.
ftp.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opds122000.prn
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archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/05/01/clinton.debt/
May 1, 2000
WASHINGTON (CNN) - President Bill Clinton said Monday that the United States would pay off $216 billion in debt this year, bringing to $355 billion the amount of the nation's debt paid down in the three years since the government balanced the budget and began running surpluses.
However, the U.S. government still has a long way to go before it pays down the entire national debt, which now stands at $5.7 trillion.
'We should take advantage of this historic opportunity to use the benefits of debt reduction to extend the life of Social Security and Medicare and pay off the entire national debt by 2013 for the first time since Andrew Jackson was president,' Clinton said.
Clinton has asked Congress to dedicate the interest savings from paying down the national debt to the Social Security Trust Fund, which will add 54 years to its life, according to White House estimates.
Clinton also used the announcement to take issue with Republican tax cut plans, noting that 'the debt quadrupled in the twelve years before I came into office,' a reference to his Republican predecessors, Ronald Reagan and George Bush.
'We should not jeopardize the longest economic expansion in history with risky tax cuts that threaten our fiscal discipline,' said Clinton, who credited his administration's 1993 and 1997 budgets as well 'tough choices in each and every year' for the debt turnaround.
---------------
www.lafn.org/politics/gvdc/Natl_Debt_Chart.html
'Bill Clinton steadily reduced the debt increase while he was in office, thanks largely to the 1993 Debt Reduction Act* that was OPPOSED BY EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN IN CONGRESS, led by Newt Gingrich! The Republicans claimed that the Debt Reduction Act would result in HIGHER deficits and also result in an economic recession during President Clinton's term. Obviously, with hindsight they were completely wrong. Republicans don't seem to be very good at math, or economics.
Now, after 18 years of huge Republican deficits and Republican recessions, the National Debt has increased from $937 Billion -- LESS than $1 Trillion -- when Ronald Reagan took office to OVER $8.5 TRILLION !!! We will be paying off the debt added by Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush for the next 100 years and more!'
www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm
Mr. Bush is constantly claiming that the economy is great! What he leaves out is that he is buying that simulated good economy with his borrowed dollars; it is a false economy that could very well crash the minute the borrowing stops, yet for the sake of our future it must stop.
When President Bush II came into office in 2001 he quickly turned all that progress around. With the help of a Republican controlled Congress he immediately gave a massive tax cut based on a failed economic policy; perhaps an economic fantasy describes it better. The last year Mr. Clinton was in office the nation borrowed 18 billion dollars. The first year Mr. Bush II was in office he had to borrow 133 billion. The first tax cut Bush pushed through a willing Republican Congress caused an upswing in government borrowing that was supposed to stimulate the economy, but two years later Bush had to push through yet another tax cut. The second tax cut was needed because it was clear that the first one did not work. Economic history tells us the second did not work either. As a result of all his tax cutting with no cutting in spending, in 2003 President Bush set a record for the biggest single yearly dollar increase in debt in the nation’s history. He did it again in 2004, increasing the debt more than half a trillion dollars. Since 2003 total borrowing has exceeded $500,000,000,000 per year. Even Mr. Reagan never increased the debt that much in a single year; Mr. Reagan’s biggest increase was only 282 billion, half of GWB’s outrageous spending. As a result of the fact that the debt was already pretty high when Bush II entered office, his annual rate of increase is only averaging 7% per year so far. In 2006 he was holding press conferences bragging that the debt was increasing at the rate of only 300 billion dollars a year, yet in reality it was twice that. Again the facts do not match Neo-Con rhetoric.
Of course 7% growth is a misleading figure as it does not make clear that by so drastically increasing the total debt, the amount of the annual US budget dedicated to service the debt has grown to over 20%. Thanks to misguided Neo-Con ideological thinking, over a fifth of our budget does nothing to contribute to the growth or health of the nation.
It does not matter if you call it a war or an occupation, supporting Iraq is expensive. It just boggles the imagination of any fiscally responsible person that the Republican Congress and President have repeatedly cut taxes during this overly aggressive and very expensive era for our military. The nation is borrowing money so that the we can spend more on our military than all the other nations on Earth combined, and still the Neo-Cons are calling for even more tax cuts and even more military spending.
This is the same Administration the previously REFUSED to let the dollar fall to get into a more favorable range against other currencies!
www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSWAT00899420080228
(02-28-08) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush on Thursday said he believes in a strong dollar and that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound.
'We believe in a strong dollar policy and we believe, and I believe, that our economy has got the fundamentals in place for us to be, to grow and continue growing,' Bush said at a White House news conference.
------------------------------------------
Now that the economy is dependent on export income (SP4 acts as though this is NEW), Paulson is letting the dollar free-fall, as concurrently imports become less attractive. The problem, of course, is that the price of imported COMPONENTS rises, and when those components are used in U.S. made product, it INCREASES the total manufacturing cost of those goods; and that's INFLATIONARY.
Inflation is now seen in check because a portion of that is LABOR costs, and the decrease in jobs (and no doubt overtime) works against inflationary tendencies. This gives the Fed some room to maneuver and cut rates.
We are living on borrowing at the Federal level - the same underlying problem that homeowners have. Oil prices are rising because of that weak dollar, and that impacts everyone. This Admin. has stood firmly AGAINST alternative energy proposals in their defense of the Oil industry from which Bush came (or so he says, as his own record in the industry is not noteworthy) - he now is on BOTH sides of the issue; speaking publicly about alternatives such as ethanol (which comes with its own set of problems) to keep Iowa happy, but refusing to increase certain taxes on oil producers; and with more ethanol production consuming the corn crop which cannot increase in proportion, FOOD prices will rise over time.
www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSSYD3274320080307
U.S. oil settled down 32 cents at $105.15 a barrel, trimming gains after hitting an all-time high of $106.54 earlier in the trading session. London Brent crude settled 23 cents lower at $102.38 a barrel. 'We rose earlier on the dollar play and expectations that the Fed may have to lower rates,' said Rob Kurzatkowski, a futures analyst with optionsXpress.
'This has lately been an inflation and currency play.'
(The team writing that imbecilic stream of SP4 know-nothing comments seems particularly off their game today. He/they make it sound like the weaker dollar was PLANNED; but it's a result of Bush's crappy fiscal policies that have increased Federal debt, and along with that municipalities, who cannot carry year-to-year debt, and being 'crowded out' by Federal borrowings. Read the Treasury Secy's recent comments at the bottom, and the analysis thereof.)
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NJ Governor Corzine, formerly of Goldman Sachs:
'The fiscal practices of the past have exacted a high price on our 'taxpayers wallet' and in their trust of government. When the first $1,000 in taxes our citizens pay goes to debt and principal instead of teachers and doctors, something is very wrong. We are making fewer investments in our future each passing year and it is a direct result of growing debt crowding out our capacity to meet citizens' needs. The crowding out is already painful … just look at the condition of our mental health institutions, our hospitals, the circumstances of those who look to the hope of stem cell research, or our basic infrastructure. We can’t allow what gets crowded out -- to be the only choices we make.'
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RE SP4's: 'As for the dollar, read todays op-ed in the WSJ titled 'please support the dollar, just not yet!' You see, exports are up, because the dollar diff makes them cheap. International trade is a hedge against the shittie dollar. It's so bad euro ministers are squealing now, because it's affecting their export numbers.'
(This is like a 5-year-old stumbling into economics class)
(03-07-08)
www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0739942220080308
STANFORD, California (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Friday reiterated his view that a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest and the greenback's value would ultimately reflect strong economic fundamentals.
'The strong dollar is in the nation's interest. Our economy like any other has got its ups and downs,' Paulson told an economic policy conference at Stanford University. 'The long term fundamentals are strong. And I'm confident they'll be reflected in currency market.'
The dollar has declined in value as the U.S. economy has weakened under the strain of a housing crisis and financial market turmoil. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have also reduced the dollar's value against major currencies including the euro and Britain's pound.
RE SP4's: 'In fact, we will still have a GDP growth (1.5%?) for the quarter.'
=======================
www.america.gov/st/econ-english/2008/January/20080124144024dmslahrellek 0.8207666.html
24 January 2008
Economic Growth Decline Predicted for 2008, with Rebound in 2009
Washington -- The pace of U.S. economic growth will slow somewhat through 2008, and an economic rebound is likely to begin early in 2009 as the housing and financial sectors improve, says a Congressional Budget Office forecast.
Peter Orszag, director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), said in testimony before several congressional budget and finance committees that the current economic weakness was created by tight credit, a housing crisis and rising oil prices. The CBO provides Congress at least two economic outlook forecasts annually.
'The state of the economy is particularly uncertain at the moment. The pace of economic growth slowed in 2007, and there are strong indications that it will slacken further in 2008,' Orszag said January 24 in congressional testimony. 'In CBO's view, the ongoing problems in the housing and financial markets and the high price of oil will curb spending by households and businesses this year and trim the growth of [the gross domestic product].'
-----------------------
(02-29-08)
Bernanke’s comments yesterday that some small U.S. banks could fail has further bolstered the rate expectations, pushing the USDJPY to 3-yr lows at 104.58 and EURUSD to another record high at 1.5229 in a rapid succession of dollar selling. In a sign of banks’ growing trouble to manage their ailing subprime lending businesses, Merrill Lynch has announced that it would shut down most of its First Franklin subprime mortgage unit. Compounding these worries, AIG, world’s largest insurer by assets, posted its biggest quarterly loss, after $11.1B write-down of guarantees sold to fixed-income investors. Record oil prices have boosted the appeal of precious metals, taking the gold prices to a high of $977.40 in overnight trading. Only in year 2008, the gold prices have surged by about 15% and growing inflation fears are set to keep gold in firm demand in the foreseeable future.
A little question to the wizz kid SP4.How do you piece together that thriving economy ,boosted export figures ,etc with falling employment.There are statistics for the latter .I should expect raising export to boost employment.good it be that you are wrong ....again?
The 'average' wage overall has fallen under Bush, because of the loss of higher-paid manufacturing jobs. That's ACCELERATING today in terms of the domestic auto producers (GM, FORD) and their suppliers. Service jobs just don't pay the same hourly rate.
The latest problem is the fall in service jobs:
www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/03/07/afx4745984.html
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - February's negative payroll numbers are reaching recessionary levels, say economists who anticipate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 'This solidifies and validates our outlook,' said Joseph Brusuelas of IDEAglobal. 'We're now in a recession.' rusuelas is predicting a half point percentage cut to the Fed Funds rate. So is Stephen Gallagher of Societe Generale.
The Labor Department today reported that the economy lost 63,000 jobs in February, a surprise drop compared to the 25,000 job gain economists polled by Thomson's IFR Markets had expected from the survey of employer payrolls. And while Labor initially reported a loss of 17,000 jobs in January, that loss was revised higher, to 22,000 jobs.
Today's report marks the first time since June 2003 that the economy lost jobs in two consecutive months. February's loss was the largest since June 2003. Economists have said the economy needs to create about 100,000 jobs each month to keep up with new entrants to the workforce.
The unemployment rate, taken from a separate survey of households, fell to 4.8 pct in February, while economists were expecting unemployment to hit 5.0 pct. Brusca called the fall 'a little bit of equivocation' in a weak report. He added that the unemployment rate is in line with recent jobless claims, 'where things are weak but not terrible.' Economists from Bear Stearns say the decline in the unemployment does not conflict with the weak message of the payroll report 'because it is a result of reduced labor force participation, which likely reflects a deteriorating assessment of the labor market.'
The decline in overall jobs was tied to anemic job growth in the services sector, which created only 26,000 jobs in February. That's the lowest number of services jobs created since October 2005, and well below the average 132,000 services jobs created each month in 2007. Services jobs have accounted for more than one third of all job creation in the last 12 months. Construction jobs fell once again, by 39,000, manufacturing jobs lost 52,000, the largest loss since July 2003. Retail jobs lost 34,000.
Government jobs rebounded to a 38,000 gain, and education and health services jobs gained 30,000 in the month.
How many times, on this website, have i written about the fact that liberals have choked the manufacturing base....50 times?????
We outsourced steel, aluminum, forest products, energy, energy services...yada, yada, yada, for 30 years. Extreme environmental and other costly regulations have driven jobs overseas far more than any trade agreement, and THOSE were all greenlighted by the dems in the 1990's, right along with the republicans. Costly manufacturing in America was driven by excessive regulation, and other nations simply do not have it. To be competitive, we will have to streamline everything from the building permit process, to employee screening. Hell, it costs $14,000 to $20,000 to hire ONE entry level employee!
Curiously enough, my libnazi representative was right: free trade has helped manufacturing in America, although he's running for cover now.. Our manufacturing numbers are UP. Now, your lousy, unionized job base is gone, but lousy productivity drove those jobs out, not some republican president.
Ignore the facts? If only you knew who I was...
You're living in a new world bud. High paying, lousy productivity jobs are gone. No one except some union places have them and they are dealing them out by outsourcing or buying off the health care. Time to wake up. America has to vie for jobs like any other nation now. If you think we can go back to protectionism, other nations will build trade blocks.
Then go ask yourself how Barak the magic negro or Hirray are going to raise taxes, get you that high pay job, pay for your college and reinvigorate your social security, without charging you an arm or a leg.? Don't have an answer? Work one up and get back to us.
SP4 said - Ignore the facts? If only you knew who I was...
Well why not tell us who you are if you think that would persuade us that all your illogical, biased, intemperate ranting actually had a basis of intelligence or logic !
...that's terrific but doesn't really answer any of the questions I posed. This is what happens, most od the time here i.e. the snub and no content...
In the trade bloc world you are living, how is adopting a protectionist stance going to expand our economy?
Front page of the NYT sunday:
Farm Commodity prices through the roof! It seems that incomes in the third world are climbing to the point where our farm products are now being bought by a whole new set of folks, formerly too poor to buy them! They seem to want to 'eat like Americans!' What does this tell you about the developing world?
Tonny, where do you get this half empty glass outlook from???
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