Analysis: Castro's departure won't bring quick change in US policy

US Features

Feb 20, 2008, 0:22 GMT

Washington - Cuban leader Fidel Castro's resignation provides an opportunity for the United States to take a fresh look at relations with the communist island less than 200 kilometres off its border, but analysts doubt the Bush administration will budge from its hardline approach until there are signs of real democratic change. Castro's younger brother Raul, who has been running the country since Castro fell ill in July 2006, is a committed communist and is unlikely, aside from some mild economic adjustments, to depart much from Fidel's agenda or introduce the reforms Washington insists are essential for easing the hostility that has characterized relations for nearly five decades. 'The Bush administration's posture has been, 'We won't change anything until Cuba changes completely,'' said Phil Peters, an analyst at the Lexington Institute in Washington. President George W Bush in 2004 tightened sanctions on Cuba to hasten the collapse of the Castro regime, and set up a transitional team to ready the US effort to assist the country toward a democracy and provide millions of dollars in humanitarian relief once the regime was gone. The United States has had no formal diplomatic ties with Cuba since the Caribbean island nation allied with the Soviet Union after the 1959 revolution that brought Castro to power. Washington has had strict economic sanctions on Cuba since the early 1960s. 'We remain hopeful that the Cuban people will one day be able to elect their leaders, that they will one day be able to actually build democratic institutions that serve the needs of the people and that reflect the will of the people,' State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said of Castro's announcement. 'There's no change in our policies,' McCormack added. 'I don't believe that there is anyone contemplating that at this point either.' During the Cold War, US-Cuban relations were marked by numerous attempts by Washington on Castro's life, the botched 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, the 1962 Cuban missile crisis that brought the United States and Soviet Union to brink of nuclear war, and a mass exodus of Cuban refugees to the United States over several decades. Raul Castro, who has always been viewed as his brother's successor, has consolidated control since Castro transferred power and has been effectively running the government, analysts say. Raul will benefit from a Cuban economy that has been growing because of expanding trade with China and Venezuela, meaning the island's economy will not be desperate enough to comply with US demands, said Larry Birns of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington. 'Raul is not going to come forward with any dramatic reforms,' Birns said. 'He is going to be a maintainer. Not a divider, not a decider, but a maintainer.' Domestic political reasons also limit Bush's ability to soften his policy on Cuba. Cuban Americans make up a large voting bloc in Florida, a critical state in presidential elections, and generally advocate a tough policy against the regime. But the analysts don't rule out the possibility that relations could improve. The Democratic Party took control of Congress in January for the first time in 12 years and is traditionally less hardline about Cuba than Republicans. Some have already said they will pursue legislation to relax sanctions on Cuba. Bush will have the power to veto that legislation, but could come under increasing pressure to change his approach toward Cuba now that Castro has stepped down. 'I think the country will take a hard look at (the policy),' Peters said. Castro's departure 'is a very newsworthy event and people are going to focus on Cuba. Congress will reexamine it and hopefully the administration will too. But there is nothing automatic here.'

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-Feb 20th, 2008 - 04:01:56

I can't wait until Fidel is shaking hands with Che in hell.

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No ChangesFeb 20th, 2008 - 05:01:42

I will not hold my breath for changes...

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IanFeb 20th, 2008 - 10:18:49

He did pretty well - outlasted 9 american presidents trying to get rid of him !

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tonny from belgiumFeb 20th, 2008 - 16:18:36

Apparently some here suffer from melancholia for the times when Fulgencio Batista was the designated dictator of Cuba,and the island was just a brothel and casino in the hands of the Mafia,Yeah,those must have been glorious times ....

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another gem...Feb 20th, 2008 - 17:05:09

'He did pretty well - outlasted 9 american presidents trying to get rid of him !'

Yeah, dictators last along time and democracies regularly change leaders... And yeah, he did well, hundreds of thousands of Cubans had to flee the country he ran in to the ground though to escape though.

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SP4: Perhaps TonnyFeb 20th, 2008 - 19:22:53

...but Castro runs imprisonment-without-trial, has huge human rights abuse issues i.e. persecution of Gays and Lesbians, and actually kills people wo simply wish to leave.

No thanks, Tonny, I'll let some wise guys own a Casino any day, to a totalitarian!

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EdFeb 21st, 2008 - 11:05:02

But its a pretty popular tourist location - I know several people who've been and found it a refreshing change to get away from the Coca Cola/McDonalds americanisation which pollutes so many places around the world

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Re: SP4s comment ...Feb 21st, 2008 - 17:57:10

He wrote '...but Castro runs imprisonment-without-trial...'

Yeah SP4 ... just like the practice YOU SUPPORT of Bush with 'detainees' (translation: prisoners).

AFTER YEARS OF IMPRISONMENT BY BUSH - they've never been tried or proven guilty in a court of law of anything ...

At Bush's direction, they aren't given the opprtunity to see any charges or evidence against them (or even to know if any such things exist)

Bush imprisons them indefinitly with no charges or evidence ... ( exactly what the founders of our nation sought to prevent our government from being able to do as outlined in our Constitution)

And here you are saying Castro is wrong in doing so? (which is correct)

But you fail to see the direct comparison to Bush's actions.

Hypocrite.

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:-DFeb 23rd, 2008 - 06:21:20

the poor terrorists.

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The above poster ...Feb 23rd, 2008 - 17:09:27

... forgets that Bush hasn't proven them to be terrorists.

If they are ... then prove it and justice would be done.

But Bush imprisoning without charge or evidence, is the same as Castro doing it (ya see, Castro calls his prisoners 'enemies of the government' too)

SP4 simply can't grasp the similarities ... that's what hypocrites like him, who don't understand our nations founding principles, do.

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Analysis: Castro's departure won't bring quick change in US policy

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