Analysis: Castro's departure won't bring quick change in US policy

Washington - Cuban leader Fidel Castro's resignation provides an opportunity for the United States to take a fresh look at relations with the communist island less than 200 kilometres off its border, but analysts doubt the Bush administration will budge from its hardline approach until there are signs of real democratic change. Castro's younger brother Raul, who has been running the country since Castro fell ill in July 2006, is a committed communist and is unlikely, aside from some mild economic adjustments, to depart much from Fidel's agenda or introduce the reforms Washington insists are essential for easing the hostility that has characterized relations for nearly five decades. 'The Bush administration's posture has been, 'We won't change anything until Cuba changes completely,'' said Phil Peters, an analyst at the Lexington Institute in Washington. President George W Bush in 2004 tightened sanctions on Cuba to hasten the collapse of the Castro regime, and set up a transitional team to ready the US effort to assist the country toward a democracy and provide millions of dollars in humanitarian relief once the regime was gone. The United States has had no formal diplomatic ties with Cuba since the Caribbean island nation allied with the Soviet Union after the 1959 revolution that brought Castro to power. Washington has had strict economic sanctions on Cuba since the early 1960s. 'We remain hopeful that the Cuban people will one day be able to elect their leaders, that they will one day be able to actually build democratic institutions that serve the needs of the people and that reflect the will of the people,' State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said of Castro's announcement. 'There's no change in our policies,' McCormack added. 'I don't believe that there is anyone contemplating that at this point either.' During the Cold War, US-Cuban relations were marked by numerous attempts by Washington on Castro's life, the botched 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, the 1962 Cuban missile crisis that brought the United States and Soviet Union to brink of nuclear war, and a mass exodus of Cuban refugees to the United States over several decades. Raul Castro, who has always been viewed as his brother's successor, has consolidated control since Castro transferred power and has been effectively running the government, analysts say. Raul will benefit from a Cuban economy that has been growing because of expanding trade with China and Venezuela, meaning the island's economy will not be desperate enough to comply with US demands, said Larry Birns of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington. 'Raul is not going to come forward with any dramatic reforms,' Birns said. 'He is going to be a maintainer. Not a divider, not a decider, but a maintainer.' Domestic political reasons also limit Bush's ability to soften his policy on Cuba. Cuban Americans make up a large voting bloc in Florida, a critical state in presidential elections, and generally advocate a tough policy against the regime. But the analysts don't rule out the possibility that relations could improve. The Democratic Party took control of Congress in January for the first time in 12 years and is traditionally less hardline about Cuba than Republicans. Some have already said they will pursue legislation to relax sanctions on Cuba. Bush will have the power to veto that legislation, but could come under increasing pressure to change his approach toward Cuba now that Castro has stepped down. 'I think the country will take a hard look at (the policy),' Peters said. Castro's departure 'is a very newsworthy event and people are going to focus on Cuba. Congress will reexamine it and hopefully the administration will too. But there is nothing automatic here.'

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You want the photos ... post your addressMar 7th, 2008 - 17:43:38

You've already proven you can't be trusted with my information.

The first thing you did with when I gave info to you, was make a phone call ... you wanted to 'tell on me' like a little bratty kid.

BTW, neither the owner of the gym, or the manager has ever mentioned or asked about me about your calls.

You want the photos? Post your address.

The fact remains ... I was where I said I'd be ... YOU were still in New York ... windbag.

You waste my time.

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Hey idiot, post something verifiable for once.Mar 7th, 2008 - 18:20:02

'You want the photos ... post your address'

LOL, The manager of the place was ready to kick your ass himself. (people don't take kindly to liars saying that they work in a place that they run and challenging others to fights out of it. There are liability issues to put it mildly.)

'You've already proven you can't be trusted with my information.'

What information? You haven't given any. Post something verifiable before you jump to conclusions about what I would do with it.

'The first thing you did with when I gave info to you, was make a phone call ... you wanted to 'tell on me' like a little bratty kid.'

I wanted to demonstrate to you that people find your attitude disgusting and beyond stupid. 'Tell on me', LOL... I never said that but if you are so proud of your opinions and want to look like some virtuous fellow who defends the poooor dogs that get kicked why don't you have the guts to sign it? After all, you are the defender of 'true justice'.

'BTW, neither the owner of the gym, or the manager has ever mentioned or asked about me about your calls. '

Of course not, you haven't approached them because you are a coward.

'You want the photos? Post your address.'

Post yours and I will e-mail you for your latest round of lies.

'The fact remains ... I was where I said I'd be ..'

The fact remains that you are a liar. You do not work there, the shifts that you said that you work are occupied by different people. No one saw your truck in the lot, you are making up stories to hide because you do not have the guts to stand behind your stupid, stupid ideas. 'True justice'? What an incredible hypocrite!

Post your name coward, every time you post some drivel here without doing that you confirm that you are a sniveling hypocrite.

'You waste my time.'

You can't waste what's worthless.

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