By Mike McCarthy Sep 8, 2007, 5:07 GMT
Washington - For months US President George W Bush has urged Americans to withhold judgment on his strategy in Iraq until his top commander in the country issued a report about how the approach has worked.
That time has now arrived. General David Petraeus will appear before Congress on Monday to describe the achievements and shortcomings that have taken place in Iraq since Bush ordered thousands of more troops to the front lines to stem surging violence.
Petraeus' congressionally mandated progress report was seen as the most important yet and will likely shape the debate about what the Bush administration should do about Iraq and the US role in the coming months.
A lack of sufficient progress will result in Democrats renewing their calls for a pullout of American forces and could prompt more Republicans to distance themselves, if not outright oppose Bush's policy.
The number of US soldiers in Iraq jumped to more than 160,000 during the last several months after Bush ordered in an additional 20,000. Petraeus is likely to recommend the presence remain at that level until the spring of 2008, when deployment rotations will force a reduction, the US media has reported.
The Democrats, who - along with the US public - have turned against the conflict, will likely cite negative aspects of the report to argue that Bush's policy has failed and that it is time to begin bringing US troops home.
Bush has pointed to the violence and instability in Iraq as his chief reasons for keeping US troops there and will likely hold onto that argument, at least in the near future. With his time in office dwindling, his legacy will largely be defined by the outcome in Iraq.
Petraeus will testify along with the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, before two House committees after a series of other reports that questioned the ability of the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al- Maliki to govern effectively and the performance of the Iraqi security forces.
Petraeus has previously said the troop surge has helped reduce the sectarian violence that peaked late last year and that Baghdad has become more secure. At the same time, however, violence fomented by insurgents or al-Qaeda shifted to other locations.
Petraeus has also pointed to significant progress in cracking down in al-Anbar province, at one time one of Iraq's most violent regions, by enlisting the help of tribal leaders who grew tired of al-Qaeda's presence. Bush noted the success during a surprise visit to Iraq on September 3.
'You see Sunnis who once fought side by side with al-Qaeda against coalition troops now fighting side by side with coalition troops against al-Qaeda,' Bush said.
Bush's revised strategy announced in a January speech included pouring more soldiers into the Iraqi capital and working to streamline the Iraqi chain-of-command.
The White House placed more pressure on al-Maliki's government to make progress in political reconciliation among Iraq's rival religious and ethnic groups and create a law governing the fair distribution of oil revenue between Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shiite Arabs.
But a congressionally commissioned report released Thursday said Iraq's police forces remain plagued by militant and insurgent infiltrators and are sorely lacking in training and equipment.
The commission, consisting of retired military officers and former senior officials, was set up by Congress to assess the state of Iraqi security forces that also included the army. The panel, led by James Jones, a former general and top NATO military commander, concluded that Iraq's Iraqi Interior Ministry was 'dysfunctional and sectarian' and a 'ministry in name only.'
Iraqi security forces will not be able to operate independently of the US military in the next 12-18 months, the report said.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congress' investigative arm, published a report this week disputing earlier findings by the Bush administration on the progress being made by the Iraqi government.
The White House had concluded that al-Maliki's government met eight of the 18 objectives set by Congress. The GAO had found that only three of the goals had been achieved.
The GAO and White House had both concluded that little progress was being made on an oil law or political reconciliation.
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