Islamabad - Taliban splinter groups in Pakistan's lawless
tribal region appear to be putting aside their differences to disrupt
the government's efforts to track down the fearsome warlord Baitullah
Mehsud, who has a 5-million-dollar bounty on his head as an al-Qaeda
facilitator.
In a dramatic move this week, pro-government Taliban commander
Hafiz Gul Bahadur scrapped a 16-month-old peace agreement in the
tribal district of North Waziristan and announced his decision to
carry out attacks on government forces.
The statement came a day after dozens of Bahadur's fighters
ambushed an army convoy in the district Sunday, killing 16 soldiers,
including a lieutenant colonel, and destroying about a dozen vehicles.
It was the biggest loss for the Pakistan Army on a single day
since it launched an offensive against the Taliban in the
north-western district of Swat in late April and expanded it to
Mehsud's stronghold about two months later.
Ahmadullah Ahmadi, a spokesman for Bahadur, told reporters by
phone that the Taliban would continue its attacks until the
government took action to stop missile attacks by US pilotless
aircraft and withdrew Pakistani troops from North Waziristan.
The announcement raises the prospect of more violence and disturbs
the government's efforts to divide Islamist militants by making a
distinction between 'good' Taliban - the ones who only attack US and
NATO forces in Afghanistan - and the 'bad' ones who carry out attacks
inside Pakistan.
Without acknowledging it officially, the Pakistani government has
tried to isolate Mehsud since it decided to take out the warlord, who
has accepted responsibility for a series of suicide bombings across
the country that have killed thousands of people over the past two
years.
In recent backdoor contacts, Pakistan requested three main 'good'
Taliban commanders - Maulvi Nazir from South Waziristan, Bahadur from
North Waziristan and Afghan leader Sirajuddin Haqqani - not to take
Mehsud's side, a Peshawar-based intelligence official aware of the
efforts said.
By keeping the guns of an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters
under the three commanders silent, the Pakistani military would have
a much easier time flushing out Mehsud and his 10,000 to 15,000
well-trained fighters and suicide bombers, but this hope seems to be
vanishing now.
'Apparently, there is a growing realization among different
Taliban groups that once Mr Mehsud is overwhelmed, they would be the
next target,' retired general and defence analyst Talat Masood said.
'Scrapping the peace deal in North Waziristan is an indication
that the Taliban is extending the conflict, so that they can diffuse
the military effort against their fellow Taliban in South Waziristan
for their own survival,' he said.
Pakistan's offensive in South Waziristan is also threatening the
interests of the Afghan Taliban, who use the tribal region to launch
cross-border attacks on NATO-led international forces in Afghanistan.
A three-member Afghan Taliban delegation last week held a meeting
with representatives of Baitullah and Bahadur in the Orakzai tribal
district and delivered a message to them from the Taliban supreme
commander, Mullah Omar.
They were asked to put aside their differences and support each
other as much as possible.
'The message was very clear from Mullah Omar that Baitullah Mehsud
will not be left alone,' said a Taliban commander who was briefed on
the meeting.
If the efforts of the Afghan Taliban succeed and Pakistani
militants join hands against Pakistani forces, Islamabad would have
no choice other than a radical revision of its decades-old policy of
viewing the Taliban as a strategic asset on its western border in
case it is attacked by India on its eastern frontier.
'Pakistan, I am sure, will quickly review its botched policy and
go against every single Taliban, and it seems the country is moving
in that direction,' Masood said.
He said the Pakistani military was capable of defeating the
combined Taliban forces but the war would be a prolonged one and
'very bloody.'
The Pakistani military might not necessarily fight all these
warlords together. It could carry out a major action against one or
two and attack the rest with jets, helicopter gunships and artillery
fire to prevent them from supporting their colleagues.
In addition, the army was likely to use local tribes who are
against the Taliban to unbalance their authority in their areas,
Masood said.
'We will see all sorts of tactics being employed by the Pakistani
authorities,' he said.
This policy is sure to please the American military in
Afghanistan, which has already begun to see the positive impact of
Pakistan's military action in Swat and South Waziristan.
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