Islamabad - Fears are growing that the Pakistani
opposition's planned march on Islamabad this week might throw the
nuclear-armed country into chaos and put the political future of
pro-Western President Asif Ali Zardari at risk.
The political confrontation could also drive Pakistan away from
its fight against extremism and efforts to overcome its economic
crisis, two prime concerns Western governments want the Islamic
country to focus upon.
An alliance of opposition parties, headed by two-time former prime
minister Nawaz Sharif and the influential legal community, plans to
start a protest rally, dubbed a long march, from the southern port
city of Karachi Thursday and reach Islamabad four days later.
It plans to hold a sit-in in the capital until its demand for the
restoration of the judiciary under independent-minded former chief
justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is met.
The march was expected to swell in numbers as it travels through
the eastern province of Punjab, Pakistan's most populace region and a
stronghold of Sharif.
'It will have very dangerous dynamics for the country,' said
Rasool Bux Raees, a political science professor at the prestigious
Lahore University of Management Sciences. 'Violence, instability,
protests, strikes and more confrontation will grow, and the
government has not really realized the gravity of the situation.'
Sharif's conservative Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz joined
Zardari's liberal Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in a coalition
government after February 2008 elections, which saw the defeat of the
political supporters of former military strongman Pervez Musharraf
and the restoration of civilian rule after eight years.
But Sharif parted from Zardari after the president showed
reluctance in fulfilling his promise of reinstating Chaudhry, who was
sacked by Musharraf under emergency rule in late 2007.
The rift between the two widened last month when judges loyal to
Zardari banned Sharif from elected office and nullified the election
of his brother Shahbaz Sharif, suspending his provincial government
in Punjab. Zardari said he did not dictate the verdict.
The February 25 court ruling triggered occasionally violent,
countrywide protests and kept businesses closed for three days in
Punjab, home to more than 60 per cent of Pakistan's 160 million
people.
The concerns have grown in Washington and other Western capitals
that the political infighting would divert Pakistan's attention from
its fight against the Taliban and al-Qaeda militants launching
cross-border attacks in Afghanistan.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said last week that the
two leaders should put their differences aside and unite against the
'mortal threat Pakistan faces,' but the advice was not heeded by
either side.
The efforts for mediation between the traditional opponents by US
and British envoys also were unfruitful.
In a move that was likely to fail ahead of this week's march, the
Pakistani government banned rallies in Punjab and arrested dozens of
Sharif's supporters in a countrywide crackdown early Wednesday.
Thousands of paramilitary troops were called in, and police were
alerted to stop the protesters from entering the capital.
Pakistan's top security official, Rehman Malik, warned Sharif that
his anti-government speeches are tantamount to sedition, which may be
punished by a life sentence.
'Unfortunately, President Zardari and his loyalists have little
political experience,' Raees said. 'They live in self-delusion that
they can control the situation and suppress the opposition.
'Instead of finding the political means to resolve the issue, he
is trying to block the rallies, but such attempts are unlikely to
defeat the resolve of the seemingly charged opposition.'
'And this is also going to put his own political future at stake,'
the professor added.
Zardari rose to power by chance after his wife, Benazir Bhutto,
the former prime minister, was killed in a gun-and-bomb suicide
attack during an election rally in late 2007. He became the head of
her PPP and eventually the president.
But he has remained unpopular among the public for alleged
corruption involving more than 1 billion US dollars during Bhutto's
1993-96 premiership.
Dissenting voices also emerged recently in his own party,
challenging his decision to ignore senior party leaders and appoint
inexperienced but loyal friends to key government posts.
The PPP's leader in the Senate and Bhutto's close aide, Raza
Rabbani, resigned as a federal minister and Senator Enver Baig quit
the chairmanship of the Senate's foreign affairs committee in protest
over Zardari's nepotism, media reports said Tuesday.
There was also speculation about tensions escalating between
Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, also of the PPP.
Gilani has occasionally resisted directives from Zardari, media
reports said.
'From day one, Mr Zardari has tried to grab all powers for
himself, and this has left him with few friends and many enemies,'
said the analyst and retired military general Talat Masood.
'It seems now that he has fallen in his own trap,' Masood said,
warning that if the crisis becomes acute, the country's military
might intervene. 'I don't see any future for him. Only a miracle will
save him.'
But Raees argued the military was unlikely to intercede. 'Given
the international scenario, the military is not in a position to take
over as it has done in such political deadlocks in the past,' the
professor said.
'But if the political disorder grows further it might adopt a
minus-Zardari formula that would amount to a removal of Zardari and
bringing together all the political forces under certain parameters,'
he added.
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