Islamabad - The collapse of Pakistan's ruling alliance has
come as a disappointment for many Pakistanis longing for political
stability, but it might also be a bad omen for Western allies who
want to see the country focus on its fight against Islamic extremists.
'The fight against militancy cannot be won without a comprehensive
political strategy devised through a debate in the Parliament, where
the parties with a wide spectrum of popular support come together to
own it,' said Mehmood Shah, former security chief in the country's
tribal region, which is the hub of a rising Islamic militancy.
'That opportunity is lost with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
[PML-N] pulling out of the coalition, and the Parliament will now be
turned into a ring where the two major parties will wrestle for power
instead of tackling the security issues,' he said.
Insurgents who have found safe haven in the remote tribal areas
near the border with Afghanistan have stepped up their campaign of
violence in recent weeks. Two suicide bombers blew themselves up
Friday at a high-security military-run weapons factory, 30 kilometres
north-west of Islamabad, killing about 80 employees.
Three days later, they targeted a police station in North-Western
Frontier Province with a suicide car bombing, killing at least 10
people, including four police officers.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant umbrella organization,
accepted responsibility for the attacks.
More than 4,000 people have perished in suicide bombings and other
attacks on government forces, security installations and political
rallies in 2007 and the first eight months of 2008.
The TTP also provides fighters shelter and training facilities for
cross-border attacks in Afghanistan, where the Taliban have killed
more than 188 NATO soldiers, including 101 US troops, since the start
of this year.
Pakistan's government on Monday banned the TTP and three other
pro-Taliban groups in a move that was unlikely to have much effect on
the operations of the rebel organizations.
'The insurgents have shown that they can strike anywhere on their
will and cause the sort of damage and destruction they want,' said
retired general and political commentator Talat Masood. 'It makes the
writ of the government almost non-existent.'
Unfortunately, Pakistan's political leaders continue to bicker in
the face of such a big threat, he said.
The split between the right-wing PML-N and left-wing Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) came barely one week after they managed to oust
their common foe, former president Pervez Musharraf, a key US ally.
But they wrangled in the following days over the reinstatement of
judges ousted by Musharraf, who resigned, and the nomination of the
PPP's Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of slain former prime minister
Benazir Bhutto, for the presidency.
Some Western diplomats based in Islamabad welcomed the development
since the chasm cleared the way for a new purely liberal and secular
alliance, led by the PPP, which they believe would be more committed
to fighting militants.
The new coalition includes the secular, ethnic Muttahida Qaumi
Movement and the nationalist Awami National Party (ANP), which is
known for its communist inclinations and anti-religious stance. The
ANP defeated Islamic parties in February 18 elections in the restive
North-West Frontier Province.
On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif, head of the PML-N and a former
prime minister, is viewed as a conservative leader who has repeatedly
criticized US policies in public during election rallies early this
year and continued the onslaught while in the coalition government.
'Zardari is the only replacement for Musharraf that could be
acceptable to everyone who wants Pakistan to win the war against the
militants,' said one diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
But that might be mere wishful thinking by policymakers in
Washington and European countries.
'The secular and liberal forces stand united now, but they have
become extremely unpopular the way they have played their cards,
especially Zardari, who publicly admitted that he had violated
well-documented agreements with Sharif,' said one of Pakistan's
leading political analysts, Hassan Askari Rizvi.
'He was nicknamed 'Mr 10 Per Cent' for the percentage he would
allegedly get in kickback, and now there is a deficit of trust,' he
added.
In contrast, Sharif has emerged morally victorious and more
popular than ever before, and many analysts said if elections were
held today, the liberal forces would lose heavily.
The coalition breakdown has pushed him toward Islamic parties -
which have sympathies for tribal militants and extremists but were
marginalized in February 18 elections - to augment his political base.
'It can turn out to be a major setback to the country's war on
terrorism,' Shah said. 'These Islamic parties would try to use a
popular figure like Sharif to aggravate already existing
anti-American sentiments in Pakistan.'
'The prospect of extremists taking over is very dangerous for a
country which is a nuclear power,' he added.
According to Shah, the Pakistan Army, which has more than 120,000
troops dedicated to fighting militants in tribal areas but lacks
popular support, would continue to do what it could to suppress the
insurgency but its efforts would be directionless in the absence of a
robust policy.
'The PPP government will have to take Mr Sharif on board if it
wants to deal with the menace of extremism,' retired general Masood
said. 'Otherwise, it will lose the war even before it begins.'
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