By Siddhartha Kumar Jul 9, 2008, 12:34 GMT
New Delhi - The showdown between India's ruling alliance and its communist partners over the civilian nuclear deal with the US has triggered hectic parleys in New Delhi with the coalition clutching at support from smaller parties to save the government and the nuclear accord.
Four communist parties having a total of 59 lawmakers met President Pratibha Patil on Wednesday to formally withdraw their support to the Congress-party led United Progressive Alliance, reducing it to a parliamentary minority.
Political observors said that the split was imminent as the communist parties, ideologically opposed to closer ties with Washington, had already made their intentions clear.
Amid indications that Patil would direct Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to prove his government's majority within the next fortnight, the spotlight has fallen on regional parties which the UPA managers are desperately courting to win the trust vote.
The UPA government which will complete its five-year term in May 2009 is reluctant to go to the hustings early, owing to record double-digit inflation and a string of defeats at the hands of main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party.
The UPA is determined to pass the floor test, knowing that a minority government cannot go ahead on the nuclear deal. More importantly, a failure to implement India's most ambitious international treaty in decades could only result in embarrassment on the domestic and global scene.
Congress leaders insist that the government's stability is not at risk since the communist withdrawal has been offset by the new-found support from Samajwadi (Socialist) Party, that has 39 MPs.
However, a possible revolt within the SP, till recently a Congress rival, could upset all calculations.
Two MPs from the SP, which banks on Muslim support have said they and 10 other party MPs will defy the party whip as they oppose any pact with the US because of its 'anti-Muslim' policies.
But even if the 37 SP MPs were to support the 226-member UPA in the event of a trust vote, the government would have 263 votes. This is nine short of the majority figure of 272 in the 543-member parliament.
In such an uncertain scenario, the Congress is struggling to gain the numbers from smaller parties like Rashtriya Lok Dal, Telangana Rashtriya Samithi, Janata Dal (Secular) and the Trinamool Congress that have nine parliamentarians in all.
The Congress is also wooing four MPs from parties in India's Kashmir and north-east and an equal number of independent lawmakers who are considered fence-sitters.
In what is typical of the unpredictability in Indian politics, the parties are keeping their cards close to their chest, attempting to drive hard bargains with the government in exchange for their support.
The local media has already reported that the SP which has criticized the UPA's handling of inflation is demanding a ban on petro-products and curbs on Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Oil Minister Murli Deora.
SP leader Amar Singh has also asked for changes in telecom policy, echoing a demand made by his friend Anil Ambani, who heads India's second-biggest telecom firm, Reliance Communications.
At the same time, TRS, that has campaigned for a separate state of Telangana to be carved out of southern Andhra Pradesh, is demanding its pound of flesh.
'If the PM is going to announce the creation of the Telangana state then we will definitely support the UPA, otherwise not,' TRS chief K Chandrasekhara Rao said.
In his enigmatic stand, RLD leader Ajit Singh said he supported the nuclear deal, but did not support the use of nuclear energy.
Other groupings mulled about the cost of their political support and remained equally ambivalent.'The floor test is not tomorrow our party will take its decision a day ahead of the trust vote,' the mercurial JD (S) chief HD Devegowda told reporters.
As the number crunching in the Indian capital keeps politicians at their calculators, the small parties are busy drawing up their demands and wishlists.
The political scene is likely to remain animated till the UPA has mustered the requisite support. But till then, the small players will have their day in the sun, knowing well that they hold the key to defuse the crisis.
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