New Delhi - Nowhere in Afghanistan do the Taliban hold more
sway that in Helmand, the opium-growing southern province which
produces more narcotics than anywhere on earth - and fills the
insurgents' combat coffers.
On Thursday, thousands of US soldiers began pouring into the
region in order finally to bring it under the control of the Kabul
government.
The operation, said the Washington Post, is the biggest offensive
undertaken by US Marines since that of 2004 in Fallujah, Iraq.
At the same time it is the first major operation to be carried out
under the presidency of Barack Obama, who is hoping that his fresh
Afghanistan strategy will now turn events around in the Hindu Kush.
After years of over-optimistic claims by former president George W
Bush, the Obama administration has recognised just how serious things
have got in Afghanistan, and last month called a New York meeting of
security experts who have leading roles in Obama's new strategy
launched in the spring.
An internal memorandum from that meeting, seen by the German Press
Agency dpa, says the United States 'may not be actually losing, but
we are certainly not winning.'
The memorandum went on to say that successes had to be visible
within the next 18 months, otherwise the governments and citizens of
the international coalition forces in the region would all draw the
conclusion that the situation was hopeless, and 'start agitating for
a pullout.'
Should this prove the case, the memorandum continues, the sole
remaining option would be a limited US programme involving anti-
terrorism operations to keep the Kabul central government in power.
There was, however, 'no realistic hope' of such a programme ever
leading to the sort of far-reaching economic and political change
which is the final aim of the Americans in Afghanistan.
Even grimmer was the situation in neighbouring Pakistan, where the
prospect of 'a total collapse' leading to a nuclear-armed jihadist-
terrorist state could not be ruled out.
The hope in Afghanistan was that, with the deployment of an extra
21,000 US troops, there would be a general improvement in the
situation.
Operation Khanjar (curved dagger) is the first test of
Washington's new strategy. Its key points are not just increasing
troop strength but also - crucially - civil reconstruction backed by
security provided by the military.
At the same time there will be greater efforts to train Afghan
security forces, so they can assume as quickly as possible the tasks
still carried out mainly by foreign forces in the eighth year since
the fall of Taliban rule.
Just how dependent local forces are on the help of international
troops can be seen in the fact that, for the Helmand operation, just
650 Afghan security forces are involved compared with nearly 4,000 US
Marines.
There is little doubt that sending in extra troops will lead to an
escalation of violence before any stabilisation or even de-esclation
of the situation in the region.
Already, Afghanistan is experiencing the most intensive phase of
combat since the the the fall of the Taliban regime, according to the
latest report delivered last week by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
to the Security Council.
In May the number of 'security incidents' topped 1,000 a month for
the first time, while in the first four months of the year their
number increased by 43 per cent over the same period last year. A
further increase in violence is expected.
The increase in troop strength is also needed in view of the
upcoming August 20 election, according to Ban - who, however, was
quick to warn that there must be no increase in civilian casualties
which only serve to drive Afghans into the arms of the Taliban.
There was little surprise in the initial reaction of Taliban
spokesman Qari Yussuf Ahmadi to the new offensive in Helmad - that
the US troops would be attacking civilian targets.
Ban stressed that the military had to operate in a way that would
not further distance the local population from the international
community.
USA
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