Americas Features
Analysis: Partial recount spurs political war in Mexico
By Andrea Sosa Cabrios and Veronica Sardon
Aug 11, 2006, 19:00 GMT

Buenos Aires/Mexico City - The partial recount of Mexico's presidential elections has renewed the political fight between the declared winner, conservative Felipe Calderon, and leftist runner-up Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has vowed to accept only victory.

Calderon won the July election by a mere 0.58 percentage points or 244,000 votes, according to official results, and Lopez Obrador has alleged fraud.

Fanning Lopez Obrador's allegations was a recount done immediately after the election of just 2.2 per cent of the polling stations, which already narrowed Calderon's lead.

With another partial recount under way of about 9 per cent of the polling stations, Mexico appears to be getting even deeper into a political quagmire.

Lopez Obrador supporters have kept up a daily campaign of protests, seizures, and a squatter camp in the capital city that blocks traffic, and the fiery populist has indicated he will only accept the results of a recount if he comes out the winner, spelling more trouble ahead for the North American country of 109 million people - the world's 13th largest economy.

The resulting civic unrest, with tens of thousands flocking to publid demonstrations, also presents a particular challenge for Mexico, where just six years ago, voters ended 70 years of rule by one party to elect Vicente Fox of the ruling National Action Party (PAN).

The country's Electoral Tribunal has ordered a partial review including a recount of votes cast at 11,839 polling stations, about 9 per cent of the 130,000 polling stations across Mexico. The review must be completed by Tuesday, and nearly 4 million of a total of 41 million votes cast will be recounted in 26 states.

An investigation by the daily Reforma indicated Thursday that the recount on Wednesday, the first day of the review, affected 1,888 polling stations with a total of about 406,099 votes, and that in it, Lopez Obrador gained 489 votes and Calderon lost 296.

The results of the recount will not be known officially until the process has been completed, Electoral Tribunal sources said. However, if the trend is confirmed by the rest of the recount, it would further fuel Lopez Obrador's discontent.

After the initial election count that ended July 3, Calderon, of the ruling National Action Party (PAN), had an advantage of more than 400,000 votes or 1.04 percentage points over Lopez Obrador.

But that margin shrunk to about 244,000 votes, or the currently official 0.58 percentage points, after the 2.2 per cent recount.

For this reason, the leftist former mayor of Mexico City and his followers are demanding a full recount, in the hope that the trend is maintained and allows him to take the lead and the presidency. Those demands are fuelled by the shrinking difference with every new recount.

The aim of the recount is to establish whether the allegations of fraud and irregularities made by Lopez Obrador's For the Good of All coalition are well founded. Depending on the results of that tally, the Electoral Tribunal may then call for votes to be recounted at more polling stations.

But the ongoing protests, which have included the seizure of highway toll booths, have alienated much of the public. The candidate claims that his 'civic resistance' measures constitute a defence of Mexican democracy, but the squatter camps violate municipal legislation that he himself signed when he was mayor.

Lopez Obrador is demanding the full recount not so much to see who is the winner as to show that it was he himself. He insists that, if there is a recount that reinforces Calderon's advantage, he will never acknowledge defeat.

The analyst Denisse Dresser suggested recently that Lopez Obrador's main objective may be precisely the absence of a full recount, so that he can stay put in his accusations of fraud.

The Electoral Tribunal has until August 31 to resolve all pending claims and must designate a president-elect by September 6, ahead of inauguration in December.