Americas News
Preview: Colombia vote seen as referendum on rebel crackdown
By Jan-Uwe Ronneburger
May 25, 2006, 19:00 GMT

Bogota - Colombians yearning for stability after decades of civil war seem likely to give President Alvaro Uribe another four years in power, though his hard-line tactics are controversial.

Polls ahead of Sunday's presidential election give Uribe between 57 per cent and 61 per cent of the vote, enough to avoid a runoff against a rival who touts himself as a left-leaning alternative.

Still, Uribe's US-friendly policies have not solved the nation's underlying problems - a four-decade-old civil war and Colombia's role as the biggest exporter of cocaine.

The largest anti-government guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has been weakened thanks to billions of dollars in US military aid, but is anything but defeated.

The Marxist group's huge income from the illegal drug trade - much of it fuelled by cocaine demand in the United States - allows the guerrillas to hold their ground in the face of a military crackdown unleashed by Uribe.

Though the guerrillas lack broad popular support, Colombian troops are victims in a war of attrition against a largely invisible foe. Most casualties are caused by landmines, not armed clashes.

Negotiations on an exchange of captured FARC rebels for high- ranking officials being held hostage by the FARC, including former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, have stalled.

Meanwhile, land use to grow drug crops is increasing despite massive spraying from the air and risky operations to clear the crops by hand.

Uribe's declared first-term successes include the disbanding of a notorious right-wing paramilitary group, the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC). He also signed a free-trade deal with the United States in February.

But while AUC leaders have been convicted for murder, drug trafficking and driving civilians from their homes, the United Nations and human rights groups have criticized their light prison sentences as a veiled amnesty.

In addition, AUC commanders have grabbed some 4 million hectares of land, and in the drug regions thousands of former paramilitaries are switching to the drug lords' camps.

One development expert has warned of a disaster if no legal jobs are found soon for the 31,000 demobilized right-wing fighters.

Uribe's strongest competitor is centre-left candidate Carlos Gaviria, who is polling about 20 per cent. He and other candidates would force a runoff if they pull Uribe's total below 50 per cent on Sunday.

Gaviria wants to confront the social causes of Colombia's civil conflict, which he says is rooted in grinding rural poverty.

But his campaign is complicated by the fact that the police, the military and the drug lords are often entangled, especially in poor and remote areas.