Tel Aviv - Whether opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu or
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni assumes the task of forming the next
Israeli government, a tough and complicated process lies ahead.
The close results of Tuesday's elections created a political limbo
and prompted both the underdog Livni of the centrist Kadima and the
favourite Netanyahu of the hardline Likud to claim victory.
Livni, 50, said she won because her party won the most (28)
mandates and retained its position as the largest party in the 120-
seat Knesset.
Netanyahu, 59, said he won because his Likud more than doubled its
mandates to 27, and the right-wing bloc led by it grew from a
minority of 50, to a majority of 65 seats in the Israeli parliament,
giving him decidedly better chances of forming a coalition.
The right-wing bloc, in opposition for the past three years, has
made a sweeping comeback and now finds itself poised on the fringes
of power. Avigdor Lieberman, a hawk whose campaign singled out
Israel's Arab citizens and demands zero-tolerance toward Hamas in
Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian nuclear abilities, stands out
as the head of a bolstered ultra-nationalist party.
The right-wing is now nearly as strong as in 2003, when it had a
69-seat majority in the Knesset, of which the then ruling Likud of
premier Ariel Sharon had 38 mandates.
Sharon had earlier crushed former premier Ehud Barak of the left-
centre Labour Party, in separate February 2006 prime ministerial
elections, held just months after the outbreak of the second
Palestinian uprising during a deadlock in peace negotiations. Amid
the ongoing Intifada, his Likud went on overwhelmingly to overtake
the Knesset in parliamentary elections two years later.
Then too, leaders and media in Europe, Arab states and elsewhere
in the world reacted with shock, alarm and pessimism to the swing to
the right in Israel.
Political experts in Israel said the sharp pull to the right in
these elections was equally a reaction to absent faith in the peace
process and renewed violence in the form of increased rocket attacks
from Gaza, following the rise of the radical Islamic Hamas movement
in Palestinian parliamentary elections and its subsequent take-over
of the strip.
While the right-wing blocking majority further makes any
breakthrough in the peace process in the coming years seem out of
reach, the virtual tie between Livni and Netanyahu has also sparked
fears of internal political paralysis in Israel.
Israeli President Shimon Peres, who has seven days within
publication of final results to appoint a candidate for forming the
next government, faces a tough decision. The most likely candidate
would be Netanyahu, but at the same time it will be hard for Peres to
ignore Livni's unexpected achievement in obtaining the most mandates.
At this point, there are two main viable possibilities for a
coalition: A right-wing team headed by Netanyahu's Likud, or a broad
unity government centering around both the Likud and Kadima - whether
headed by Netanyahu, Livni, or both in a two-year rotating
premiership. Such a unity government could also include the ultra-
Orthodox Shas, the Labour Party, Lieberman or all of them.
The first scenario, however, is undesirable for Netanyahu, who
would not want to be dependent entirely on the whims of Lieberman and
other, smaller far-right parties. It would also strain his relations
with the new US administration of Barack Obama and with Europe.
The second scenario - a broad unity government - is far more
enticing, not only for Livni, but also for Netanyahu in tackling the
key challenges he has listed as facing Israel.
If he wants to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities to prevent it
from achieving the ability to create an atom bomb, a broad consensus
rather than a narrow right-wing government would serve him better. If
he wants to attack Hamas in Gaza, he could use the expertise of
either Defence Minister Ehud Barak of Labour or Kadima's former army
chief Shaul Mofaz. And amid the world financial crisis, a broad
coalition would facilitate passing the budget and economic
stimulusplans.
But why would Livni agree to join a unity government headed by
him, if - citing her upset even if narrow election win - she could
have a stint as premier under a rotation agreement and can threaten
with going to the opposition if not granted that demand?
Vice versa, Netanyahu, backed by Lieberman and the right-wing
bloc, too has little incentive to join a unity government headed by
Livni only.
'If Netanyahu does not want a right wing government which will
embarrass him as well as the entire country in front of the world,
and Livni acts decisively, she will be able to demand a rotating
agreement,' said Sima Kadmon, a commentator for the leading Israeli
Yediot Ahronot daily Wednesday.
Rotation therefore seems a possible compromise, but only the next
days or weeks will tell.
Israel's political system, meanwhile wrote the Ma'ariv daily, has
created a 'stalemate,' a 'dead end,' a 'real entanglement.'
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