Jerusalem - Israel's election campaign was only minutes old,
and former premier Benjamin Netanyahu of the hardline Likud party
returned to his pet theme that his opponent will divide Jerusalem.
As opposition leader he had the opportunity to fire the starting
shot of election campaigning in Israel when called to address the
opening of the Knesset winter session, shortly after President Shimon
Peres formally announced the early poll late Monday.
'We will not negotiate on Jerusalem, the capital of the Jewish
people of 3,000 years. I haven't done so in the past, and we commit
ourselves not to do so in the future,' Netanyahu told the Israeli
parliament.
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, his main contender as the
head of Israel's ruling, centrist Kadima party, refused to make such
a commitment in her negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox Shas party.
It was that refusal, along with her refusal to spend more money on
child allowances for large, mainly ultra-Orthodox, families that
prompted Shas to reject her offer to join the coalition she was
trying to form.
Its rejection spelled the end of her efforts and paved the way for
the early poll, expected to take place either on February 10 or 17, a
year and a month ahead of schedule.
The peace negotiations with the Palestinians (and with the
Syrians) are only one of several key issues expected to dominate
campaigning in the coming months.
With many Israelis feeling exasperated with the Middle East
conflict, other issues that affect them more directly - not least the
global economic crisis, the corruption allegations plaguing Israel's
political elite and 'the Iranian nuclear threat' - are likely to
feature higher on their agenda.
The upcoming poll is nevertheless crucial for the peace process,
throwing it into even bigger uncertainty.
If Netanyahu is elected, this will likely mean years more of
stagnation.
If Livni is elected, this would not mean an automatic
breakthrough, but negotiations could continue as they have so far.
Livni, although no outspoken dove, is a fervent supporter of a
two-state solution to the conflict. As Israel's chief negotiator, she
has over the past year held dozens of meetings with chief Palestinian
negotiator Ahmed Qureia.
In the meantime, Ehud Olmert, who resigned from the Israeli
premiership last month to fight corruption allegations, has vowed to
continue his efforts to reach some sort of written 'understanding'
with the Palestinians so long as he heads a transitional government
which will be in place until a new one is formed after the elections.
But Qureia said that Olmert's and Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas' stated goal of reaching a peace deal by the end of the year
was becoming increasingly unlikely.
'Israel is on the eve of elections, and the Palestinians have an
internal problem which we hope will be resolved soon with Egyptian
help,' the senior Abbas aide told a conference near Tel Aviv late
Monday.
He was referring to the dispute between the radical Islamic Hamas
movement ruling Gaza and Abbas, whose four-year term as president
expires January 9, but who wants to postpone his departure so as to
allow simultaneous presidential and legislative elections by 2010.
And the Israeli Ha'aretz daily wrote in an editorial Tuesday that
it was doubtful whether Olmert as a caretaker prime minister had the
legitimacy to sign any deal with either the Palestinians or the
Syrians, even if it opined that 'Olmert believes in his ability to
reach agreements on both fronts.'
If Olmert reaches no deal, as commentators widely predict, the
peace process will be left to either Livni, 50, or Netanyahu, 59.
Their statements of the past few days reflect their deep
differences of approach and opinion.
During her campaign for the September 17 Kadima primary, Livni
remained mum on such sensitive negotiating issues as Jerusalem,
hoping to attract as broad a support base as possible and avoid
alienating the centre-right.
But her negotiations with Shas drove her into a corner and forced
her to state, in a television interview Sunday night, that she was
unable to sign a coalition deal ruling out negotiations on Jerusalem
because that would 'block every possibility for hope and peace in the
state of Israel' and place her at the head of a 'paralysed cabinet.'
Her statement would indicate that Livni understands that for the
Palestinians - in the words of Qureia Monday - 'there can be no peace
without Jerusalem.'
But it also exposes her to attacks by the hawkish Netanyahu, who
has in the past often used this most emotive of issues to score
points with the electorate.
While Netanyahu will undoubtedly play the 'She will divide
Jerusalem card,' Livni for her part is expected to campaign on her
image as the 'Ms Clean' of Israeli politics, promising a new style of
leadership.
First polls meanwhile predict a neck to neck race, currently
giving Livni a slight edge over Netanyahu.
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