By Jeff Abramowitz Jul 31, 2008, 14:01 GMT
Tel Aviv - The intended resignation of Israeli Premier Ehud Olmert has thrown the peace process into disarray, even if the talks with the Palestinians can be expected to continue in their present form at least until the premier's successor is chosen in September.
Although Olmert announced Wednesday night that he intends quitting the premiership once his Kadima party chooses a new leader on September 17, he will remain in office as head of a transitional government until his successor forms a new government, a process which, by law, can take up to six weeks.
Should no government be formed in that time, new elections will be held within 90 days - February or March next year is the most likely date - with Olmert staying as acting premier.
During the time Olmert remains as premier, peace talks with the Palestinian will continue, his spokesman said.
'We are committed to the peace process,' Mark Regev told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
'We will work with any prime minister in Israel because what matters to us is to keep the peace process going,' said Nabil Abu Rudeineh, a spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
Olmert himself, in his dramatic televised speech Wednesday night, left no doubt where he stood on the cruciality of pressing ahead with the negotiations.
'As long as I serve as prime minister, I will not desist from the effort to bring the negotiations between us and our neighbours to a successful conclusion that offers hope,' he said.
'We are closer than ever to firm understandings that can serve as the basis for agreements,' he said.
The talks can be expected to continue then in the immediate short term, possibly even until the deadline of the end of the year, by which time Olmert and Abbas pledged to have an agreement in place.
For Olmert, an agreement with the Palestinians will ensure that he leaves office with a positive legacy - at least for supporters of Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation.
Without an agreement, the Olmert premiership will be remembered for his government's perceived mishandling of the inconclusive war, in the summer of 2006, with Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas, and Olmert himself will be regarded as the premier forced to resign because he was suspected of involvement in a slew of alleged corruption scandals.
'Olmert,' analyst Maya Bengal wrote in the Ma'ariv daily, 'plans to leave behind a legacy. In the window of opportunity that is left to him - at least a month, half a year at the most - he will make a massive effort to attain a significant diplomatic achievement, which will help somewhat to soften the image that has been created in connection with him.'
But on the flip side, any agreement achieved by a premier considered a lame duck could have a hard time getting the required approval from parliament. Opposition members against far-reaching concessions will undoubtedly argue he has no mandate to make them.
And the Palestinians, despite the urgency a peace deal has for them, may hesitate to sign any agreement with a prime minister who will not be around to follow through on it.
If the already difficult and troubled Israeli-Palestinian do not mature into an agreement by the time Olmert leaves office, then the fate of the talks depends largely on who wins the Kadima leadership primary, and whether that person can form a new government.
The front runner to succeed Olmert is Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who heads the Israeli negotiating team and is a firm advocate of the peace process in its current form.
In addition, an agreement with the Palestinians would help her silence the critics who complain that, despite her 12 years in parliament, which includes holding eight ministerial portfolios, she is too inexperienced for the top job in Israel.
The other leading candidate, Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz, is far more hawkish, and is sceptical about signing a peace deal while there is a split in the Palestinian camp, with Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip and the more moderate Palestinian Authority in charge of the West Bank.
Mofaz has also said he would form a unity coalition which would include right-wing opposition parties. This may increase his chances of forming a government, should he win the Kadima race.
But it would put a serious damper on the peace talks, since Mofaz would be unlikely to make concessions which, in the final analysis, could bring down any government he may head.
And should the opposition, specifically the hawkish Likud Party under Benjamin Netanyahu win new elections, as polls predict, then the peace process, in its present form, is likely to grind to a complete halt.
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