The key to this storyApr 6th, 2008 - 17:11:55

(From this article)

'Al-Sadr bloc has a big following among the country's poor and destitute Shiite Muslims, especially in the south and parts of Baghdad. Shiite blocs, including al-Maliki's Islamic Dawa party, are gearing up for the elections and may fear al-Sadr's growing popularity. The crackdown is a way of weakening Sadrists' grip over their strongholds in the south and areas in east Baghdad. Al-Sadr is opposed to federalism backed by his rivals in the powerful Shiite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). Any election victory by the Sadrists in October would mean an end to SIIC's hopes to establish an autonomous region in the south, styled after the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq.'

================================

(All non-Shia factions now understand that Iran is backing the Sadr groups, and have to band together to keep Iran out of the upcoming elections. Based on al-Sadr's popularity amongst the poor, he becomes a political threat - reminiscent of Hamas in Palestine winning their election. The upcoming provincial elections have triggered these recent events, as all sides jockey for power; and eventually oil revenues. Al-Sadr is against the benchmark of semi-autonomous regions such as Kurdistan, and SIIC's plans for Basra.)

in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-32880520080406?pageNumber=2& virtualBrandChannel=0

Iraq will hold local elections by October. The vote is expected to open the way for groups such as the Sadrists, who boycotted the last provincial polls in 2005, to win votes at the expense of other Shi'ite parties that back Maliki. Many fear violence will erupt during campaigning, as most Shi'ite groups have militias. But most attention focuses on Sadr's Mehdi Army, the biggest and most feared.

(Meanwhile, the CRITICAL benchmarks remain unmet, including disarming the militias. al-Maliki is getting some support now from everyone EXCEPT al-Sadr and the Mehdi Army; but disarmament cannot be unilateral, and the Iraqi army cannot enforce it on the Sunni and Kurds without a true agreement in Parliament while al-Sadr won't agree.)

On Thursday the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, told reporters he believed Kurdish, Sunni Arab and Shi'ite parties were getting behind the prime minister's crackdown. 'How long does that support last? What happens going forward I can't begin to predict. But I certainly don't see the prime minister in a weakened position as of right now,' Crocker said.

Nevertheless, domestic backing for Maliki could be shortlived. A landmark draft oil law that will share the country's vast oil wealth and unlock billions of dollars in foreign investment remains stalled. The Accordance Front (Sunni) still refuses to return to the government despite numerous rounds of negotiations. And the fate of the northern oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which Kurds want as part of their largely autonomous region, a demand Iraqi Arabs reject outright, remains undecided.

The Mehdi Army is sure to ignore demands to disband. The head of Sadr's political bloc in parliament rejected the council statement and called it an attempt to corner the movement. Maliki has previously called for militias to disarm but until now has taken little action for fear of alienating fellow Shi'ites. Sadr was instrumental in Maliki's rise to power in 2006 but split with the prime minister a year later.

The Sadrists are vying for control of the mainly Shi'ite, oil-producing south with a powerful rival and supporter of Maliki, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. Sadrists accuse Maliki and the Supreme Council of trying to sideline them ahead of the provincial elections. The Supreme Council controls most local authorities in the south and stands to lose ground to Sadr supporters in the polls.

Report this comment

Crocker calls outbreak an -anomaly-Apr 6th, 2008 - 17:32:12

(Whatever it is, it sure screwed up the backstory for his and Petraeus' upcoming appearance before Congress. Congress should roast his butt for using 'anomaly' as a dismissal of real problems relating to the upcoming provincial elections.)

afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jx27vKr3zR6_cOAizV4kOmUU-Nvg

BAGHDAD (AFP) — A week of bitter clashes that rocked Iraq's Shiite areas has exposed the fragility of security gains from the US surge in troop numbers, even as Washington mulls a new drawdown of its forces.

US ambassador Ryan Crocker, who with the commander of US-led forces in Iraq General David Petraeus is due to testify before Congress next week, said he believed the violence was an 'anomaly.' 'It in no way erases significant progress in various areas, political and economic, over the last number of months, as well as security,' Crocker told reporters in Baghdad on Thursday.

'It was a spike obviously and -- knock on wood -- given the course of the last few days, it is shaping in being just that, an anomaly,' Crocker said. 'We have to see what happens... Gains are fragile and this episode demonstrates that.'

(The 'spike' will be the surge, once we get a troop drawdown. Since the Sunni and Kurdish factions are temporarily joining with al-Maliki to slow down al-Sadr, THAT would be the opportunity to get them to work on the TOUGH issues as as regional autonomy, and dividing up the oil revenues. The elections would put it smack into the hands of the people voting, and Hamas' success in 2006 should be a caution as to what could happen. al-Sadr is peaking politically, with a million-man march called for on 4/9 when Petraeus is testifying.)

abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=4579938

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called on Thursday for a million Iraqis to march against U.S. 'occupiers,' threatening a massive show of strength a week after his Mehdi Army militia battled U.S. and government troops.

Report this comment

McCain chimes in as irrelevantApr 6th, 2008 - 17:52:12

(McCain simply perpetuates the White House drivel, and is clearly no solution to our current set of problems)

afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g6Wvx25P1oVNBEjTF_X7wJmBq8SQ

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Republican presidential hopeful John McCain said Sunday that Iraq's military performed 'pretty well' in its recent Basra assault despite the 'mixed' results of the battle.

Speaking ahead of a week when Congress will hold key hearings on the progress of the war in Iraq, the presumed Republican nominee for president defended Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government as increasingly effective in managing the war-torn country.

'Now, obviously, the results were mixed,' McCain said on Fox News of the Basra attack against Shiite militia. 'Obviously, there were problems and Maliki in my view should have waited until we had concluded the battle of Mosul,' he said in the interview recorded on Friday.

But, McCain said, 'Overall, the Iraqi military performed pretty well. ... eight or nine months ago, it would have been unthinkable.'

(WHO THE HELL CARES ABOUT 8 OR 9 MONTHS AGO? Oh, yeah - tie it to the surge. What it proves is that al-Maliki did not manage to train or motivate his forces during the surge period, and instead of sending them to combat the fractured breakaway criminal elements and gangs in Basra, he sent them after the Mehdi Army, who stood them off, and brought both British and U.S. troops into the battle in order to survive it).

Report this comment