Beirut - The Hezbollah-led opposition's loss to the pro-
Western majority in Lebanon's parliamentary election has left the two
opposing camps with the difficult test of forming a government of
national unity to maintain stability in a country chronically
suffering political and economic crisis.
According to interior ministry final official results, the
majority won 71 seats in the 128-member parliament, while the
Hezbollah-led opposition secured 57 seats.
The ruling majority will be tasked to propose the next prime
minister, a Sunni Muslim by tradition. The head of the government is
named after mandatory parliamentary consultations are carried out by
President Michel Suleiman.
Many observers fear a scene will repeat itself on the political
arena in which the opposition will insist on a national unity
government with veto power. Such an issue recently contributed to
paralyzing the country politically for several months.
Hezbollah had insisted on holding a third of the government seats
to retain veto power, fearing the Western-backed majority would bow
to demands for disarming the Shiite organization's military wing.
Hezbollah, which led the resistance that saw Israel withdraw from
southern Lebanon in 2000 and continues to fight Israel during
offensives, has made clear it has accepted the defeat, but will not
accept demands to disarm.
Hezbollah MP Hussein Haj Hassan said Monday that the group's
weapons 'are not subject to discussion as long as Israel is a threat
on Lebanon.'
'Hezbollah will keep insisting on maintaining their arms, and this
again will cause a political crisis,' said political analyst Shafik
Masri.
The issue of the Hezbollah arsenal has been the core of the deep
division between the ruling majority and Hezbollah-led opposition.
The majority has always insisted that only the Lebanese army
should protect the Lebanese and the country, while Hezbollah believe
that they should keep their arms to confront Israel.
But many observers believe the majority's victory was reassuring
to the West that Lebanon will have a moderate government.
Paul Salem, Beirut-based director of the Carnegie Middle East
Center, told the Lebanese television station LBC that 'the victory of
the majority will be comforting for the West.'
The election came a few days after President Barack Obama called
for a 'new beginning between the United States and Muslims.'
'A victory for Hezbollah, which the US considers a terrorist
organization, would have been a setback for American influence and
policies in the region, and further the role and influence of Syria
and Iran,' said analyst Hilal Khassan.
At the local level, observers believe the elections did not change
anything within parliament, and that the only new thing that emerged
was the loss of opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun in
predominantly Christian areas.
'Both Shiite movements Hezbollah and Amal candidates captured all
27 seats allocated to their sect in parliament, but the real surprise
was the Christian vote because it showed that it was more united
behind the majority,' political analyst Shafik al Masri told the
German news agency Monday.
'The elections showed that Aoun has lost much of his popularity
among his own sect,' Masri said. 'In the previous elections in 2005
Aoun had some 70 per cent of the votes of the Christians in his
areas, but in this election Aoun took only 40 percent.'
Election observers told dpa that Aoun won in areas where there are
Shiite voters loyal to his allies Hezbollah, like in south Lebanon
and Byblos, north of Beirut.
A political member of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
acknowledged it had been defeated in Lebanon's parliamentary
elections.
'The vote shows a victory for the March 14 coalition, (headed by
Sunni Muslim leader Saad Hariri) and also shows a defeat for the
Lebanese who had hoped for change in this country,' said Michel de
Chadarevian.
He said the FPM was disappointed with the election results but
would respect the outcome.
'We had believed in the Lebanese people but unfortunately they
chose a different path,' Chadarevian said, adding that his party
would now work with the majority to form a government of national
unity.
'Lebanon can only be governed by a national unity government,' he
said. 'Even if we had won we would have formed a national unity
government.'
According to Masri, the election scene did not change much since
2005 when the current majority swept to power on a wave of popular
anger following the assassination the same year of former Lebanese
prime minister Rafik Hariri.
Newspapers on Monday led on the election dealing a blow to the
Hezbollah alliance which fought a tight race in the parliamentary
elections on Sunday.
'They were broken ... Lebanon wins,' read a headline in pan-Arab
daily Asharq al-Awsat, in reference to the Hezbollah alliance.
'The majority is back,' screamed al-Akhbar newspaper, which is
close to Hezbullah. 'The opposition suffered a great defeat.'
Al-Akhbar warned that Lebanon now stood at a crossroads that could
lead to a political crisis similar to that which brought the country
close to civil war in May 2008.
'Elections once again lead to a parliament of national divisions,'
was the headline in the pro-opposition daily As-Safir.
As-Safir, however, questioned whether the two camps will now be
able to form a national unity government. 'Should we already brace
ourselves for a new political crisis?' it asked.
Prime Minister Fouad Seniora, who is a member of the majority and
who won a seat in the new parliament, told reporters: 'We are on the
threshold of a new stage, and we should try and understand the
changes that are coming to our country and the region, and be
prepared.'
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