Tehran - In Friday's president election, incumbent President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will face three challengers: moderates Mir-
Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and conservative Mohsen Rezaei.
But what the majority of Iranians mainly care about is not the
challengers as much as simply whether Ahmadinejad stays or goes.
'The election is de facto a referendum on Ahmadinejad and the
destiny of the three other candidates depends on the Yes or No votes
against the president,' said one analyst in Tehran.
The Iranian opposition has long been aware of the referendum
nature of the election, and has been hoping for a high turn-out which
will increase the protest votes against Ahmadinejad, rather than
relying on the votes for the other candidates.
'It isn't the people we see in the streets who will seal the
outcome of the election, but those who are passively sitting at
home,' the analyst added.
More than 45 per cent of eligible voters failed to vote in the
2005 presidential election. Reformist and moderate opposition groups
consider this as one of the reasons for Ahmadinejad's landslide
victory.
More than 60 per cent of the 46.2 million eligible voters are
under the age of 30, making the role of the young voters vital for
the election outcome.
Young voters, however, form three groups - one loyal to revolution
and Islamic system and which would vote for Ahmadinejad; one seeking
change and which would vote against him; and a third group which is
against the whole system and sees no difference in any of the
candidates.
'The third group would make the difference,' said a student
activist at the technical university in Isfahan, central Iran. 'But
if they go to the polls, then they would definitely not vote for
Ahmadinejad,' he added.
Within the majority of the active electorate, the economy is the
main criterion - not what the next president would do in the nuclear
dispute, or whether to resume talks with the United States.
The economy might also be the Achilles heel of Ahmadinejad,
especially after he failed to put into effect his promised economic
reforms, thereby disappointing a large number of those who voted for
him four years ago, but who now blame him for the country's recession
and high inflation.
'People's social security is more important than any other
security,' said Moussavi who according to opinion polls, is the main
challenger of the president and has far better chances than the other
two candidates.
The 67-year old Moussavi, who was prime minister in the 1980s, has
focused his campaign on economy and tried to persuade the low-income
strata and labour unions that unlike Ahmadinejad, he would keep his
word on improving their life standards.
His choice of the colour green as symbol for change has turned his
campaign into a green wave with his young supporters wearing green
wristbands, scarves and T-shirts and putting slogans such as Let's
get Green or Go Green on Internet to show their support for Moussavi.
'I hope that all Iran will turn green after the election,'
Moussavi said.
'My colours are the three colours (green-white-red) of our
national flag,' countered Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad is the candidate of the establishment and with the
support of the country's clergy, state media and the revolutionary
guards, he is still considered favourite to win the election.
Moussavi supporters have, however, started a widespread SMS
campaign calling on all Iranians 'to make the election day a Green
and not a Black Friday.'
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