Kiel, Germany - After studying ice formation on the Siberian
coast, German scientists forecast Monday that regular ships would be
able to sail through the entire North-East Passage between Europe and
Asia in summer in 10 to 15 years.
Heidemarie Kassens of the Leibniz Oceanography Institute in Kiel
said earlier estimates this would happen by 2050 were out of date
because of the rapid pace of climate change. The passage through
Arctic waters north of Russia would link the Atlantic and Pacific.
Speaking after a six-week expedition to the Laptev Sea off
Siberia, she called the development alarming. The region was a major
source of new ice, but this year it had produced very little, she
said.
It was noticeable that many Atlantic species of plankton were
invading the Arctic and displacing Arctic species.
'The ice cover on the sea is melting faster than our models
forecast,' Kassens said, adding that Siberia's permafrost was thawing
too. The expedition saw buildings on the permafrost cracked and in
danger of collapse.
The Transdrift Expedition was tasked with studying so-called
polynyas. A polynya is open water between the coastal ice field and
the pack ice of the Arctic Ocean which remains ice-free despite the
cold of winter.
A polynya directly responds to changes in sea currents or air
circulation, and can indicate changes in the whole Arctic.
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