Brussels - After Ireland's rejection of the European Union's
Lisbon Treaty, only uncertainty is certain for the 27-member bloc.
'It's impossible to say what will happen now,' Piotr Kaczynski,
expert on EU reform at the Centre for European Policy Studies
in Brussels, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
'There are billions of scenarios being mentioned, from the very
dark 'Ireland has to leave the EU' to the other extreme that nothing
has happened, the Irish people have spoken, the treaty is dead, let's
move on,' he said.
The vote makes it virtually impossible for the EU treaty, which is
aimed at making the union more efficient and giving it a higher
international profile, to come into force by the end of the year,
since it needs to be ratified by all 27 member states.
According to Andrea Bonanni, a seasoned EU correspondent from
Italy, leaders could be faced with the dilemma of deciding on whether
to get rid of the treaty, or get rid of Ireland.
It is not the first time that the EU has seen treaties slapped
down by referenda. The Lisbon treaty was created after French and
Dutch voters rejected a planned EU constitution in 2005.
And Ireland itself rejected the EU's current set of rules, the
Nice treaty, in a low-turnout referendum in 2001. On that occasion,
the Irish government called a repeat referendum a year later and
chalked up a solid yes on a higher turnout.
But experts say that Friday's turnout, which was on a par with the
50 per cent turnout achieved by the second Nice referendum, will make
it very hard for the Irish government to pull off that trick again.
'With the turnout there has been it would be very difficult to
hold a second vote, but it's difficult to see what else they can
do,' Hugo Brady, an expert on EU reform at the Centre for European
Reform in London, said.
They also agree that it would be difficult to draw up a successor
to Lisbon, since it is itself the successor to a failed treaty.
That being the case, the Irish rejection leaves the EU groping for
possible ways to carry on the reform process.
'One option would be to go ahead with separate deals on various
issues, such as energy or foreign policy. Another would be for small
groups of member states to carry on integration among themselves, and
another is that Ireland could be forced into 'second-tier'
membership,' Brady said.
The Irish vote will have some immediate impacts. Without Lisbon,
for example, there will be no new president of the council of EU
member states and no reinforced role for the European Parliament.
But the Nice treaty already contains provisions on many of the
Lisbon text's more controversial clauses, such as the reduction in
size of the bloc's central bureaucracy, the European Commission, and
the long-term goal of forming a common defence policy - making it
possible for such policies to go ahead even without Lisbon.
'There is room to do things (with the current rules): this is all
about confidence. Treaties are not nearly as important as the
political will to implement them,' Brady pointed out.
Indeed, even as the results of the Irish referendum began
filtering in to Brussels, the EU institutions were as busy as ever
with other business, commenting on issues from the execution of a
17-year-old in Iran to an agreement on international road transport.
And to some extent experts say that, regardless of the Irish
bombshell, business will carry on as usual.
'The vote won't have an impact on commission proceedings: there is
no stalemate in the legislative process,' Kaczynski said.
Nevertheless, the referendum is sure to overshadow not just a
summit of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday, but the entire French
presidency of the EU, which is set to start on July 1.
And with EU members still apparently agreed that the bloc needs a
new set of rules to function, the only certainty is that the Irish
no is going to open up a long and uncertain debate.
'Governments never do anything in a hurry, and the EU never does
quick, dramatic political gestures. It's like in a game when someone
kicks over the table, scattering the pieces: all you can do is pick
the table up and try to put the pieces back,' Brady said.
ThomasJun 30th, 2008 - 08:14:49
Where is the analysis of the results of this referendum??? You do not at one time in this paper point any of the profound social, political, historical causes that lead people to reject YOUR Europe ('regardless of the Irish bombshell, business will carry on as usual').
What does years of studying led you to?? nothing.
- You can't think by yourself without the mystical beliefs in the infinate joys of free trade and capitalism (which your Europe is only a simple shift)
- You are unable to understand that most europeans want more Europe but not the type you guys tell us to aprove.
EUROPE WAS NOT INTENDED FOR THE PROMOTION OF COMPETITIVENESS BETWEEN PEOPLE BUT INSTEAD FOR A NEW LEVEL OF GLOBAL SOLIDARITY.
This treaty goes on the right opposite side of the interests of the people, and you guys are simply blind.........
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