Budapest - Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany
embarked on a tour of the Hungarian countryside Tuesday, ostensibly
to promote his party, but you could be forgiven for thinking that he
was fleeing the building heat in the capital city.
Gyurcsany has been under pressure for some time, both from the
opposition and increasingly his own party members, as economic
reforms inextricably linked with his name have brought his Hungarian
Socialist Party (MSZP) to an all-time popularity low.
A Monday voting revolt from the MSZP, critical comments from MSZP
colleague and House Speaker Katalin Szili, as well as continued
speculation about his future will have done nothing to ease his mind.
The countryside is not exactly an MSZP stronghold - main
opposition party Fidesz virtually swept the board outside of Budapest
at local elections last year - but the prime minister may find a
warmer reception amongst the enemy if the atmosphere within his own
party is as bad is as believed.
Each time a new poll comes out it seems as though the MSZP's
popularity cannot drop lower, yet each time it manages it. Latest
figures show that 15 per cent of voters would vote in favour of the
Socialists if an election were held now.
The current disaster is a world away from April 2006, when the
Socialists became the first government to win back-to-back terms in
power since the changeover to democracy in 1990.
The Socialists came within a whisker of an overall majority, but
had to settle with a continued coalition with the liberal Alliance of
Free Democrats.
However, austerity measures aimed at cutting the budget deficit -
which at 9.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2006 was the
largest in the EU - and the leak of a profanity-ridden speech in
which Gyurcsany admitted lying about the economy have put paid to the
good times.
While the tape, leaked in September 2006, had the most immediate
impact, prompting riots and huge protests, the unpopular austerity
measures have been slowly eroding support for Gyurcsany and his
troops.
While rumours of his imminent departure, circulating for some time
now, are believed to be exaggerated, there appears to be growing
feeling in the MSZP that Gyurcsany should slow the pace of reforms in
order to appease voters.
This sentiment bubbled to surface on Monday, when the MSZP voted
against government plans to merge several minor taxes.
While the actual laws themselves are largely insignificant, the
fact that Gyurcsany's party voted against government proposals is
rather more meaningful.
House speaker Katalin Szili, who party sources say is working to
replace Gyurcsany, also chose her moment to express her displeasure
about the party's popularity.
Speaking on radio over the weekend, Szili said that the MSZP could
well lose the 2010 general election unless it changes its policies
and warned that reforms were being carried out against the will of
the people - a message clearly aimed at Gyurcsany.
She continued her blitz in an interview with the daily
Nepszabadsag on Tuesday, saying that she had difficulty looking
voters in the eye.
All of this has the main opposition party, Fidesz, rubbing its
hands in glee, with some reports even suggesting that they are
working out strategies on how to deal with Gyurcsany's replacement.
However, the opposition may well be acting prematurely. It is
believed that Gyurcsany will be given until next summer to bring
about an improvement in the polls.
If his economic reforms show positive benefits, he could win a
reprieve, and the signs look good at the moment on the economic
front.
The government is set to meet its deficit target of 6.4 per cent
this year and will likely meet the 2008 target as well.
Inflation is slowly falling after peaking at 9 per cent earlier
this year and economic growth is expected to pick up again after a
slump this year.
The only problem is that it is mainly economists and international
investors who will be heartened by these improved statistics.
Voters are only likely to show their approval if they feel their
wallets filling up again after being hit by energy price hikes, tax
rises and fees for visits to the doctor as part of the austerity
package.
The international markets may well be firmly on Gyurcsany's side,
but there is still a good chance he could make way for someone else
before the 2010 general elections.
Whether Szili, or any other potential candidate, would be capable
of heading off what looks increasingly like certain election defeat
in 2010 is another matter entirely.
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur 
USA
Your Talkback on this Story