By Ben Nimmo and Nicholas Rigillo Nov 3, 2009, 15:35 GMT
Brussels - With one sentence, Czech President Vaclav Klaus fired the starter's pistol on Tuesday for what is set to be one of the hottest political races in the European Union's 52-year history.
'I inform that I signed the Lisbon Treaty today,' Klaus told journalists in Prague, hours after the Czech constitutional court ruled that the reforming treaty is in line with Czech law.
The treaty creates the posts of EU president and foreign-policy chief. EU leaders now have to decide who should fill them before the treaty finally comes into force next month.
A special summit on the issue is expected in the coming days, with the Dutch prime minister and British foreign minister among the highest-profile names linked with the two posts.
Klaus' words 'start a marathon, because the EU will have to implement the treaty by choosing the president of the council and the high representative,' not to mention deciding how they should work, said Peter Becker, researcher at the SWP German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
The Lisbon Treaty is meant to give the EU a higher worldwide profile by creating the post of full-time president and strengthening the role of the bloc's top diplomat.
The approval of the treaty turned into agony for the EU after a referendum in Ireland and Klaus' opposition froze it in its tracks.
'This new treaty reminds me of a marathon, but a marathon with hurdles,' the head of the EU's executive, Jose Manuel Barroso, said at the EU's regular autumn summit last week.
But the double decision in Prague on Tuesday cleared all the remaining hurdles, leaving EU presidents and prime ministers racing to fill the bloc's long-awaited top jobs.
'They want to start the process as fast as possible,' said Piotr Kaczynski, expert on EU institutional issues at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels.
High-profile names are not hard to find. Britain's Tony Blair was long seen as the front-runner, until a deal between EU socialists and conservatives on Thursday looked to have sent him tumbling.
'Blair is not going to be the president of the EU,' Becker said.
Analysts now point to the prime ministers of the Netherlands, Jan Peter Balkenende, Belgium, Herman van Rompuy, and Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, as potential presidents-in-waiting.
Van Rompuy has been in power for less than a year. Normally, that would lessen his chances, but EU analysts point out that it also means that he has not had time to make powerful enemies.
Juncker and Balkenende, on the other hand, can argue impressive careers, having led their countries since 1995 and 2002 respectively.
But Juncker 'is not a consensus-builder,' leaving his chances doubtful, said Hugo Brady, head of the Brussels bureau of London-based think tank the Centre for European Reform.
Balkenende's homeland is one of the biggest net payers into the EU budget, Becker pointed out. That could be a key factor, since the future president will have to oversee the reform of the EU's next budget.
'Can they do a good job at handling the 2013 budget negotiations?' Brady asked as a key question for the president.
Others mentioned in the race are Latvia's former president, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, and Wolfgang Schuessel, Austria's former chancellor.
The name most often linked with the high representative's post, meanwhile, is Britain's foreign minister David Miliband.
Some analysts say that the high representative, a foreign minister in all but name, could be more powerful than the president, since he or she will control the EU's diplomatic service - also created by Lisbon - and serve as a vice-president of the commission.
But analysts say that the appointment will also depend on who gets the president's job, since EU leaders see the two posts as a team.
'If you have a president from a small member state, maybe the high representative could come from a bigger member state, a NATO member. He or she should have the strong backing of their own member state and should be a strong personality,' said Becker, adding that Miliband fits those criteria.
Klaus' move leaves Sweden, the current holder of the bloc's rotating presidency, facing a frenzied whirl of backroom negotiations to clinch a deal before the treaty comes into force on December 1.
But analysts say that the presidency has been sounding out member states for weeks - leaving a high probability that it will indeed make history by naming the first-ever EU president this month.
'There are very high chances that the (expected) summit will name names: the presidency has been performing brilliantly, so they should be ready to put forward names which are acceptable to all,' Kaczynski said.
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