Berlin - With three months to go until Germany's general
election, the lifeblood is ebbing from the country's governing
coalition as its partners hope the September election ends their
marriage of convenience.
Parliament meets for one final session in July, before breaking up
for the summer. For most, it is likely to be a short holiday as the
election campaign comes into full swing ahead of the September 27
polls.
Eyeing up possible government constellations, the only option
being dismissed out of hand is a renewal of the uneasy 'grand
coalition' between the Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats
(CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD).
The CDU openly favours an alliance with the Free Democrats (FDP),
and the conservatives' advances have been broadly reciprocated by the
liberals.
The SPD's lower rating means the party is aiming for a coalition
with the Greens, a natural partner, along with the FDP who would
boost numbers to achieve the required majority.
Merkel's party is clearly leading the polls, with recent surveys
giving a combined 35-36 per cent of the vote to the CDU and their
Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
This is largely down to the popularity of the chancellor herself,
who has been praised for her handling of the financial crisis and
whose moderating style of government goes down well with the German
electorate.
This week's visit to Washington shows Merkel at her best,
manoeuvring with ease on the world stage. She grew into the role
hosting the G8 summit at Heiligendamm in 2007, and honed it during
the G20 summit of leading nations in London earlier this year.
At her meeting with US President Barack Obama, their third in as
many months, the US president said he was 'impressed' with Germany's
'foresight' on climate change, music to the ears of an electorate
that is still anxious about Germany reclaiming its place in the
world.
Back home, however, the CDU does not command a sufficient lead for
victory in September to be within certain grasp, as an alliance with
the free-market FDP would just scrape 49 per cent on current ratings.
The FDP, desperate to return to government after rejecting the
SPD's overtures in 2005, is campaigning on a platform of simplified
taxes, coupled with lower government subsidies.
Party leader Guido Westerwelle is critical of government bail-out
schemes for German banks and carmaker Opel. However he is on good
personal terms with Merkel and has expressed a desire to serve under
her as foreign minister.
The SPD, still contrite after pushing through necessary but
unpopular welfare reforms in the previous legislature, is flagging in
opinion polls, at 22-24 per cent.
While this is an increase from the party's poor European election
result early June, it still tempers the rallying cry of SPD
chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who sees himself as
'chancellor of all Germans.'
The SPD has found itself with shrinking room to manoeuvre as the
CDU has drifted leftwards, emphasizing the social aspect of Germany's
catchphrase 'social market economy.'
The former trade unionist party has failed to mobilize support
with attempts to 'fight for every job' as a response to the financial
crisis, as this has alienated voters who believe companies must take
the consequences of bad management.
Meanwhile Germany's fifth major party, the Left Party, is hovering
at the fringes with an estimated 9-10 per cent of the vote.
The party, composed in part of ex-communists from former East
Germany, is considered a touch too radical to enter national
government.
This is despite the fact that the Left Party has been a successful
coalition partner at the state level, notably in partnership with the
SPD in the state of Berlin.
While nobody wants to see a return to the grand coalition, this
may be the only option if neither CDU or SPD can gain a sufficient
lead on September 27.
USA
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