Stockholm - The recent war between Russia and Georgia would
have 'profound consequences' on international relations, according to
the Swedish Defence Research Agency.
'The Russian actions were the result of deliberate and premeditated
choices,' researcher Robert Larsson said, noting Russia's decision to
enter the conflict, and to use a 'relatively large portion of
violence' and then to recognize breakaway regions in Georgia.
Larsson made his remarks at the launch of a 153-page study titled
'The Caucasian Litmus Test: Consequences and Lessons of the Russian-
Georgian War in August 2008.'
Larsson, editor and one of 14 contributors to the study, said that
while the study did not cast blame, the conflict could be compared to
a 'litmus test,' referring to how Russia likely used its intervention
to 'test reactions' from the international community to its actions.
'The Russian lesson was that the international community was not
prepared, willing or able to add any costs to the Russian actions,'
Larsson said. Moscow was likely to have felt it 'achieved success.'
Another contributor, Eva Hagstrom Frisell, said the conflict also
posed a 'great challenge' to the European Union that needed to find
agreement on its future dealings with Russia, noting divides within
the 27-nation bloc.
One possible effect could be to boost efforts to adopt the Lisbon
Treaty that would 'reduce the vulnerability of a rotating (EU)
presidency' by choosing a president of the European Council and
creating a unified foreign policy portfolio, she said.
The conflict could also have implications on the Russian economy if
more resources were channelled to defence spending and Moscow geared
towards more 'state capitalism,' researcher Johannes Malminen said.
Malminen also underlined that the Georgian government had tried to
stem the flight of capital and investments from the country in the
wake of the conflict.
The researchers believed the defence think-tank study would likely
form part of a pending defence review, Larsson said.
Swedish Defence Minister Sten Tolgfors recently announced the
government would postpone its decision, initially due in December, on
the future of the Swedish military over the current unrest in the
Caucasus.
Tolgfors said he wanted more analysis of the conflict in Georgia
and a review of how Sweden could mobilize its forces faster.
Over the weekend, Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and the three
other leaders in his four-party coalition said they planned to cancel
earlier envisaged spending cuts in the military.
In May, Hakan Syren, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces,
warned that requested spending cuts would seriously impair the
country's ability to defend itself and also carry out international
peacekeeping missions.
Opposition leader Mona Sahlin of the Social Democrats has said her
party favoured a discussion between all party leaders on defence and
security issues, citing the need for long-term solutions but also
criticized the government for flip-flopping on defence.
A year ago, Mikael Odenberg resigned as defence minister over
differences concerning defence spending and although events appear to
have proved him right he has declined to be drawn on the matter.
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