Dublin - The Irish political establishment was coming to terms Saturday with the country's rejection of the European Union's Lisbon Treaty and trying to divine what exactly it says about the Irish mood on Europe.
Members of both Irish and Foreign media pictured at a press conference given by the Irish Government after loosing the Lisbon Treaty Referendum in Dublin, Ireland, 13 June 2008. EPA/AIDAN CRAWLEY
In Thursday's referendum on the treaty intended to replace the failed EU Constitution Irish voters rejected it by 53.4 to 46.6 per cent, with the no side achieving a winning margin of 110,000 votes.
Just 10 of 43 constituencies voted in favour of the treaty with working class and rural areas in particular voting strongly against.
The rejection came as a shock as most opinion polls had shown the yes side with a slight lead and all of Ireland's main political parties, barring nationalist Sinn Fein, had campaigned for the treaty's approval.
The Irish rejection means that the treaty can't come into effect for the EU's 27 member states, even though many have already ratified it in their national parliaments. Ireland was the only country to hold a public referendum on the treaty, as required under the constitution.
No-one in Ireland or the European Union knows what will happen now. French and German leaders Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel and the president of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso have said they want the treaty ratification process to continue among the other 26 members, raising the possibility that Ireland will be sidelined.
On Friday Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen had refused to rule out a re-run of the referendum. In 2001 Irish voters rejected the EU's Nice Treaty before approving it in a second referendum a year later.
However, a minister of state in Cowen's government, Conor Lenihan, told Irish radio on Saturday morning that it was unlikely the referendum would be re-run.
Lenihan told national broadcaster RTE that putting the treaty before the Irish people for a second time risked the possibility of even more damage.
The no campaigners have urged Cowen to go back to Brussels and negotiate a better deal for the Irish people but the myriad issues raised by the no side makes it hard to visualise what kind of deal would satisfy them.
Those issues included fears that Ireland's neutrality would be compromised by closer military cooperation and that the country's favourable corporate tax regime would be jeopardised by EU tax harmonization.
Other issues which popped up in the debate included less influence in Europe due to reduced voting weight and the loss of a permanent commissioner and, more obscurely, abortion, workers' rights and World Trade Organisation talks on agriculture.
Doubts about what exactly the treaty contained allowed almost any argument to be put forward and made rebuttal difficult.
A radio vox pop on the streets of the western city of Galway on the morning of the vote had one woman saying she would vote no because she had been told that otherwise her sons would be conscripted into a European army.
Foreign Affairs Minister Micheal Martin admitted Friday that the yes side hadn't done a very good job of explaining the treaty.
'People on the doorstep were saying 'I still don't know enough about this treaty,'' said Martin, who directed the referendum campaign for the ruling Fianna Fail party.
The yes campaign wasn't helped by the fact that Prime Minister Cowen and Irish EU Commissioner Charlie McCreevy both admitted they hadn't read the treaty from cover to cover.
Even Iarfhlaith O'Neill, the High Court judge who chaired the independent Referendum Commission, was forced to admit that he did not fully understand the wording of a key section on veto powers.
Columnist Fintan O'Toole wrote in the Irish Times Saturday that both sides were united in trying to make the electorate fearful about the consequences of their vote, whether they voted yes or no.
So in the final analysis Irish voters were probably swayed more by fear than hope. Thirty-five years after joining the EU the country has been transformed from an economic basketcase into one of the richest countries in Europe.
At the same time pro-Europe sentiment has been declining among the independently-minded Irish as the now 27-member EU tries to fashion itself into a super-state.
'Instead of confidence, the results speaks more of a desperate desire for things to continue as they have been. Previously, when we voted on European treaties, we thought of what we had to gain. This time, we thought of what we have to lose,' O'Toole wrote.
davesebald@hotmail.comJun 17th, 2008 - 02:25:04
The Iriah people are very lucky to have a say in their future by way of referendum.Other EU countries are obviously run on a system that the Polis ( politicians & civil service ) know best and whilst in theory it is possible to register a protest at the usual elections it is nevertheless that simple.The people have right to determine the shape of
Europe and ought to be consulted along the way.
Otherwise there will be increasing apathy,alienation with the political process.
david
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