Hanoi - Vietnamese economists Wednesday said Prime Minister
Nguyen Tan Dung's recent statements that the country's economy was
recovering were premature.
'I think it is a little early to assert Vietnam's economy has
started recovering,' said Pham Chi Lan, a former member of the prime
minister's economic advisory commission. 'The signs of recovery in
the economy have not been solid.'
At the government's regular monthly cabinet meeting Monday and
Tuesday, Dung said the economy was improving.
Government statistics show the value of industrial production rose
8.4 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 4.2 per cent respectively in February,
March and April. Industrial production had dropped 8.6 per cent from
December to January.
Industrial production for the first four months reached 11.8
billion dollars, up 3.3 per cent from the same period last year.
Foreign tourist arrivals reached 305,000 in April, up 0.6 per cent
over March and 110,000 jobs were created in April, up 4 per cent from
the previous month.
Tax revenues reached nearly 1.8 billion dollars, 11.3 per cent
more than in the previous month. Rice exports topped 2.2 million tons
for the fiscal year through April, up more than 65 per cent
year-on-year.
However, economist Lan said the global economy was still poor, and
Vietnam's economy is dependent on exports and foreign direct
investment (FDI). Exports and FDI have not recovered to previous
levels.
Government statistics show exports of 18.7 billion dollars through
the end of April, equivalent to the same period last year. But Lan
said much of this represented re-exports of gold as Vietnamese gold
buyers liquidated their savings, not real products like garments,
wood products, shoes or manufactured goods.
New FDI commitments were just 6.4 billion dollars, down 62 per
cent from the same period last year.
Lan said the effects of the government's initial 1-billion-dollar
fiscal stimulus package, announced in late 2008, were still unclear.
She said the State Bank had not announced how much of the money had
gone to large state-owned companies and how much to more efficient
small and medium enterprises, which create 80 per cent of Vietnam's
new jobs each year.
However, Lan was satisfied with the government's handling of the
economy.
'Compared with 2007 and 2008, the government has been more
flexible, kept up with reality, and run the country quite well,' Lan
said. 'But the implementation of the government's direction in
localities is not yet so good.'
'The country's economy has shown signs of progress, but they are
not strong,' agreed Nguyen Dinh Cung, head of macroeconomics at the
Central Institute for Economic Management, who said he had just
returned from a working visit to several provinces.
'The domestic side (of Vietnam's economy) has shown some good
signs, but the foreign one has not shown a solid recovery.'
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