London - A leading British thinktank Friday warned of the
'grave threat' of social unrest in response to the global recession
over the next two years.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), in a paper published
Friday, rated the risk of upheaval that could 'disrupt economies and
topple governments' as 'high or very high' in 95 countries.
'Popular anger around the world is growing as a result of rising
unemployment, pay cuts and freezes, bail-outs for banks, and falls in
house prices and the value of savings and pension funds,' said the
EIU paper, entitled Manning the Barricades.
'As people lose confidence in the ability of governments to
restore stability, protests look increasingly likely.'
A spate of incidents in recent months had shown that the global
economic downturn was having political repercussions.
'This is being seen as a harbinger of worse to come. There is
growing concern about a possible global pandemic of unrest,' said the
paper.
Top of the list of high-risk countries were Zimbabwe, Chad, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Cambodia and Sudan.
However, three of the European Union's neighbours - Ukraine,
Moldova and Bosnia-Hercegovina - were rated as being at 'very
high risk' of social upheaval.
The paper pointed out that two European governments - in Iceland
and in Latvia - had already fallen as a result of crisis.
In Europe, Britain was 'not immune' from the danger of serious
social unrest and 'more likely' to suffer from it than Germany and
the Netherlands, but 'less likely' than France and the US.
A lot depended on how US President Barack Obama responded to
pressure to 'defend American jobs and companies against foreign
imports,' said the paper.
'As the downturn worsens, far more intense and long-lasting
events can be expected, such as armed rebellions, military coups,
civil conflicts and perhaps even wars between states,' it said.
USA
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