By Jean-Baptiste Piggin Jun 6, 2008, 14:59 GMT
Berlin - German cows were filling stainless-steel vats with milk again Friday after a 10-day boycott when many farmers had dumped fresh milk on fields and in drains rather than sell it at bargain rates.
But dairy factories warned that promises by German discount grocers to pay higher wholesale prices for milk and butter have changed little.
At a time when international milk prices are low and the European Union is warning farmers to get ready for a market-driven, quota-free world, many small farms may fail.
For 10 heady days, the farmers let off steam and won mostly sympathetic attention from the media. But for those on the edge of bankruptcy, the loss of 10 days of income was a terrible price to pay.
Thomas Fellmann, an academic at Germany's University of Hohenheim, said, 'They won out in the short term. But the structural problems of dairy farming have not been resolved.'
Germany's BDM dairy farmers' association says the pricing mechanism remains unfair to small farms and its ultimate aim is to alter pricing and supply rules. BDM defines a fair price as 43 euro cents (62 dollar cents) per litre.
Current farm-gate prices range between 27 and 33 cents, depending on the region of Germany. Farms in the north and east are much bigger, and can get by on lower prices than the tiny farms in the south where Germany slopes up to the Alps.
The boycott ended after Lidl and Aldi, Germany's two main discount-grocer brands, offered to pay higher prices wholesale for fresh milk and butter. The offer sounded good, but is unlikely to bring fundamental change.
Susanne Nuessel, secretary of an association of dairy factories, warned, 'Farmers think they are going to be paid 43 cents from now on. No chance.' She said that price was illusory, since neither shoppers nor export customers would accept significant increases.
Fresh milk may be nourishing, but at 60 cents a litre retail in Germany it costs less, litre for litre, than cola soft drink. Discount grocers have hinted they will edge the minimum retail price up to 70 cents, and boost the butter price too.
But as Nuessel said, there has been no commitment to boost retail prices for yoghurt, cheese or cream. In addition, only 45 per cent of German dairy output ends up in supermarkets. The rest is exported or used as an industrial feedstock.
German dairy industry figures show there were 102,000 milk- producing farms with 4 million cows last year.
Of the 29 million tons of milk they produce annually, more than 2 million tons equivalent is exported. Germany also imports specialty cheeses and other dairy products equivalent to 1.5 million tons.
The output of every farm is largely fixed under European Union quotas which were first introduced in 1984 to eliminate Europe's famous butter mountains, the vast over-supply caused by earlier minimum prices.
In April this year, the EU raised the quotas by 2 per cent, partly with an eye to world food shortages. The milk price fell. By 2015, the quotas and guaranteed prices are supposed to be gone completely and dairy farmers will be exposed the chill winds of the market.
Economists say inefficient farms are bound to fail. Since quotas were introduced, the number of dairy farms has been declining about 5 per cent annually per decade in Germany. Fellmann says Berlin has to tell the farmers the hard truth.
'The government should not awaken any false hopes. Quotas will be finished in 2015,' he said. 'You get the impression that many farmers think Berlin is going to help them somehow or other and erect some kind of new protectionist barriers.'
Fellmann said it would be better for Berlin to offer tax and other relief to farmers to leave the industry.
© DPA 2008
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