Madrid - Global warming is threatening the crucially important tourism sector in Spain, one of the world's top tourist destinations, where temperatures are expected to rise to African levels in many popular holiday areas.
In northeastern Barcelona, it will become as hot as it is now in southern Seville in the second half of the century, scientists forecast. And in Seville, it will be as torrid as in Cairo.
With Spanish beaches also expected to lose an average of 15 per cent of their surface under rising sea levels by 2050, tourists will prefer to head for northern Europe, according to European Union experts.
Spanish tourism professionals, however, are more optimistic and trust that visitors will keep coming, even if mostly in the colder winter months.
Tourism earns 11 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain, the world's second tourist destination after France. The country of 45 million residents receives 58 million mainly European tourists annually.
The vast majority of the visitors come for beach holidays, a sector which is likely to be hard hit in places like the holiday island of Majorca, where beaches could almost disappear.
Culture tourism could also be affected by temperatures of up to 50 degrees Celsius.
Top temperatures will rise by up to 3.6 degrees by 2070 and faster after that, according to a government study.
Spain is expected to be among the countries most affected by global warming, which will bring droughts, heat deaths, flooding and storms.
Rainfall is likely to drop by 40 per cent in the south of the country by the end of the century, according to the National Meteorological Institute.
More than a third of Spain is already affected by desertification, and some areas suffer from sporadic shortages of drinking and bathing water in the summer.
Tourism is expected to decrease also in Portugal, Italy and Greece, which receive more than 100 million visitors annually together with Spain.
More than half of the Portuguese territory is at risk of desertification or droughts over the next two decades, according to the environmentalist group LPN.
'Humans are adaptable,' said Pere Canellas, head of a Majorca hotel owners' association. 'Majorca will present itself as a winter holiday destination.'
Experts say the Spanish tourism branch will have to undergo major adaptations, such as ski resorts transforming into centres for nature tourism.
'We are talking about very long time frames,' Majorca tour operator Mateo Pou said. 'The predictions will not come true tomorrow nor in five years.'
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur 
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