Asia-Pacific News
No second cyclone but heavy rains threaten Myanmar (Roundup)
By DPA
May 15, 2008, 9:32 GMT

   Bangkok - Cyclone-devastated Myanmar may have missed a second cyclone this month but with meteorologists predicting torrential rains in the coming week, disaster relief experts are preparing for the 'worse possible scenario,' sources said Thursday.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre in Hawaii on Tuesday issued a cyclone warning for a gathering storm in the Bay of Bengal, offshore from central Myanmar, but cancelled the warning on Wednesday, downgrading the likelihood of a cyclone to 'poor.'

'If a second cyclone, or very strong storm, does hit in the next couple of hours it's the worst possible scenario,' said Joe Lowry, a representative of the International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), who had just arrived in Bangkok after six days in Myanmar.

Meteorologists cancelled a cyclone warning on a storm building offshore from Myanmar, but there are still predictions that the country, that was smashed by Cyclone Nargis on May 2 to 3, will experience 12 centimetres of rain over the next six days.

'It will displace more people, bring more water to an area that is already saturated and it won't run off quickly so there is the potential for serious outbreaks of disease,' said Lowry, of the approaching storm.

Cyclone Nargis killed an estimated 100,000 to 130,000 people, and has left up to 2 million without food, water, shelter or medicine, according to United Nations estimates.

Almost two weeks after the storm hit, an international relief effort in the country has only managed to reach about one quarter of the affected people, says the UN.

Aid efforts have been hampered by poor logistics, especially in the Irrawaddy delta, and by the ruling junta's reluctance to allow a large scale international air drive complete with imported transport and scores of foreign aid workers.

Myanmar's military has instead opted for a more localized approach to disaster management, utilizing its own labour forces and appealing to its closest Asian allies, such as China, India and Thailand, for expertise.