Dec 11, 2007, 5:03 GMT
Bangkok - If anyone deserves a Nobel peace prize this year, it's Myanmar's people and the Buddhist monkhood for daring to take to the streets against a brutish regime that has mired their country in poverty and backwardness for the past four and a half decades.
Myanmar's long-suffering population this August and September succeeded in doing what the international community has failed to do for two decades: putting real pressure on their military rulers to do something to bring about change.
Taking to the streets requires courage in Myanmar. The last time the population challenged the military was in 1988, resulting in a bloodbath that left an estimated 3,000 dead.
This year's protests, sparked by a surprising and drastic fuel price hike announced on August 15, started small and peacefully with scores of concerned citizens marching against the inflationary move.
After an initial spate of arrests, the movement was taken up by Myanmar's monkhood, who for two weeks in September led peaceful marches in the streets of Yangon against the fuel price hikes that culminated in full-fledged demonstrations against the junta.
The inevitable crackdown on September 26-27 left 15 dead, according to the official count.
Other estimates put the death toll much higher. What is clear is this year's crackdown was much better publicized than the bloodbath of 1988, thanks in part to digital cameras and the internet, and the international response was immediate and loud.
Even Myanmar's closest allies, China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), joined in condemning the September crackdown, and calling on the junta to take steps towards national reconciliation.
The junta, no doubt under pressure from Beijing, responded by inviting two senior United Nations officials to Myanmar, special envoy Ibrahim Gambari and human rights rapporteur Paulo Sergio Pinheiro in the aftermath of the crackdown.
The regime also took token step towards reopening a political dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's democracy icon who has, tellingly, been under house arrest for the past four years and 12 of the past 18 years.
Myanmar's military supremo Senior General Than Shwe promised to talk with Suu Kyi in person, if she drops her support for sanctions, and has appointed Labour Minister Aung Kyi to act as a liaison between the junta and Suu Kyi.
The junta has made such gestures before, and cynicism was understandably high that they were engaging in more of their evasive tactics.
That cynicism was justified at the ASEAN Summit in Singapore in November where Myanmar successfully scuttled a proposal that Gambari brief the august gathering and somehow avoided a regional scolding.
Prior to Singapore, the one thing the international community appeared to be getting right was a new seriousness in dealing with Myanmar, albeit using the same old methods. Now even that is gone.
'It was a leap backwards,' said David Mathieson, a Myanmar specialist at Human Rights Watch. 'The one thing the junta is really good at is stirring the pot and stepping back and watching people bicker.'
All the signs indicate that Than Shwe has dug his heels in and wants Myanmar to return the junta's glacially slow seven-step road map to democracy, but there may be some bumps ahead.
First, China has modified its stance towards Myanmar, according to some diplomats.
'Even before the crackdown on the demonstrations, we noticed six months ago that their was a slight shift in China's attitude towards Myanmar,' said one European diplomat.
China has huge strategic interests in its southern neighbour, starting with its massive offshore natural gas reserves that Beijing would like to pipe overland to Yunnan.
Those interests can only be assured by a stable and secure government.
'The Chinese don't want people like Aung San Suu Kyi or the NLD, who have strong ties with the West, but at the same time they are frustrated with this regime because they cannot achieve their goals because of the instability,' said Win Min, a lecturer at Chiang Mai University.
Ideally, China would like to see Myanmar led by someone like General Khin Nyunt, who was ousted on corruption charges in 2005, said Win Min. The general was considered to be a proponent of gradual but steady change in the political and economic landscape.
In the wake of the crackdown on the September protests, and the ongoing economic privations that prompted them, there is a good deal of discontent within the military forces themselves with their current batch of leaders, according to insiders.
This could lead to another popular spark if the Myanmar top generals stick to their wonted strategy of do-nothingness.
'The people's hatred of the regime for going against the monks is very widespread,' said Win Min. 'So once their hopes disappear and their fears are reduced, there is a possibility of the people expressing their hatred again.'
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