Bangkok - If anyone deserves a Nobel peace prize this year,
it's Myanmar's people and the Buddhist monkhood for daring to take to
the streets against a brutish regime that has mired their country in
poverty and backwardness for the past four and a half decades.
Myanmar's long-suffering population this August and September
succeeded in doing what the international community has failed to do
for two decades: putting real pressure on their military rulers to
do something to bring about change.
Taking to the streets requires courage in Myanmar. The last time
the population challenged the military was in 1988, resulting in a
bloodbath that left an estimated 3,000 dead.
This year's protests, sparked by a surprising and drastic fuel
price hike announced on August 15, started small and peacefully with
scores of concerned citizens marching against the inflationary move.
After an initial spate of arrests, the movement was taken up by
Myanmar's monkhood, who for two weeks in September led peaceful
marches in the streets of Yangon against the fuel price hikes that
culminated in full-fledged demonstrations against the junta.
The inevitable crackdown on September 26-27 left 15 dead,
according to the official count.
Other estimates put the death toll much higher. What is clear is
this year's crackdown was much better publicized than the bloodbath
of 1988, thanks in part to digital cameras and the internet, and the
international response was immediate and loud.
Even Myanmar's closest allies, China and the Association of
South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), joined in condemning the September
crackdown, and calling on the junta to take steps towards national
reconciliation.
The junta, no doubt under pressure from Beijing, responded by
inviting two senior United Nations officials to Myanmar, special
envoy Ibrahim Gambari and human rights rapporteur Paulo Sergio
Pinheiro in the aftermath of the crackdown.
The regime also took token step towards reopening a political
dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's democracy icon who has,
tellingly, been under house arrest for the past four years and 12 of
the past 18 years.
Myanmar's military supremo Senior General Than Shwe promised
to talk with Suu Kyi in person, if she drops her support for
sanctions, and has appointed Labour Minister Aung Kyi to act as a
liaison between the junta and Suu Kyi.
The junta has made such gestures before, and cynicism was
understandably high that they were engaging in more of their evasive
tactics.
That cynicism was justified at the ASEAN Summit in Singapore in
November where Myanmar successfully scuttled a proposal that Gambari
brief the august gathering and somehow avoided a regional scolding.
Prior to Singapore, the one thing the international community
appeared to be getting right was a new seriousness in dealing with
Myanmar, albeit using the same old methods. Now even that is gone.
'It was a leap backwards,' said David Mathieson, a Myanmar
specialist at Human Rights Watch. 'The one thing the junta is really
good at is stirring the pot and stepping back and watching people
bicker.'
All the signs indicate that Than Shwe has dug his heels in and
wants Myanmar to return the junta's glacially slow seven-step road
map to democracy, but there may be some bumps ahead.
First, China has modified its stance towards Myanmar, according to
some diplomats.
'Even before the crackdown on the demonstrations, we noticed six
months ago that their was a slight shift in China's attitude towards
Myanmar,' said one European diplomat.
China has huge strategic interests in its southern neighbour,
starting with its massive offshore natural gas reserves that Beijing
would like to pipe overland to Yunnan.
Those interests can only be assured by a stable and secure
government.
'The Chinese don't want people like Aung San Suu Kyi or the NLD,
who have strong ties with the West, but at the same time they are
frustrated with this regime because they cannot achieve their goals
because of the instability,' said Win Min, a lecturer at Chiang Mai
University.
Ideally, China would like to see Myanmar led by someone like
General Khin Nyunt, who was ousted on corruption charges in 2005,
said Win Min. The general was considered to be a proponent of gradual
but steady change in the political and economic landscape.
In the wake of the crackdown on the September protests, and the
ongoing economic privations that prompted them, there is a good deal
of discontent within the military forces themselves with their
current batch of leaders, according to insiders.
This could lead to another popular spark if the Myanmar top
generals stick to their wonted strategy of do-nothingness.
'The people's hatred of the regime for going against the monks is
very widespread,' said Win Min. 'So once their hopes disappear and
their fears are reduced, there is a possibility of the people
expressing their hatred again.'
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur 
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