Bangkok - Chances of Abhisit Vejjajiva - the Oxford-educated
43-year-old leader of the Democrat Party - becoming Thailand's next
prime minister have risen in recent weeks in tandem with the downfall
of his once arch rival - Thaksin Shinawatra.
On May 30, Thailand's Constitution Tribunal aquitted the Democrat
Party of committing fraud during the April 2, 2006 election, while on
the same day it dissolved Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party and banned
its 111 executives, including Thaksin, from politics for the next
five years.
Then on June 11, the graft-buster Assets Examination Committee
(AEC) decided to freeze the bank accounts of Thaksin and his close
family members, tying up some 73 billion baht (2 billion dollars) in
cash, although about 28 billion baht of that seems to have slipped
the net. Thaksin's cash was always one of his winning assets in
Thailand's system of money politics.
Both developments were good news for the Democrats, Thailand's
oldest political party, which despite is venerable six decades of
experience was soundly trounced in the past three elections by the
Thai Rak Thai, now defunct.
As the Democrats' leader, Abhisit's bid for the premiership has
gone from very remote to very real.
'The way things have turned out over the past two weeks he's the
front-runner,' said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at
Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. 'The Democrats have become the
default party.'
With the TRT dissolved and decapitated, the Democrats face little
competition in the upcoming general election.
Thailand's military junta, which ousted Thaksin with a coup on
September 19, 2006, has promised to hold an election by December.
A lot could happen between now and December. For instance,
Thaksin, who is currently in exile, might come back to Thailand and
create political chaos in the hopes of derailing the corruption cases
against him to reclaim his frozen millions.
Or Young Turk factions within the military could stage a
counter-coup in an effort to get even tougher with Thaksin and his
followers.
Abhisit claims not to be too upset by these possibilities.
'Whatever happens in the short term will lead to an election by
the end of the year,' Abhisit told a packed audience at the Foreign
Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) Wednesday night.
'Even in the worst case scenario that there were another coup, I
cannot see any other option but for the new coup leaders to hold a
new election within 60 to 90 days,' he said.
Whenever the election, with Thai Rak Thai out of the running the
outcome is likely to be a coalition government with the Democrats as
the largest party, given their strong following in the southern
provinces and Bangkok.
A Democrat-led government would certainly be welcomed by the
foreign business community and Thailand's Western allies, which have
been upset by the military comeback and some of the economic policies
of the current military-installed cabinet.
Abhisit, a fluent and eloquent English speaker who earned a degree
in philosophy at Oxford, knows how to push the right buttons for
foreigners.
'Thailand has thrived on being an open economy for a good four to
five decades. We intend to stay to that path,' said Abhisit, who, for
instance, faults the current government's policy to alter the Foreign
Business Act at a time when Thailand needs to stay competitive.
Such sentiments cheer the foreign business community, as do
Abhisit's strong stance against corruption, the need to keep the
military out of politics and to hold free and fair elections. But
many wonder whether Abhisit has what it takes to win over the hearts
and minds of his own people.
'Abhisit is not seen as a man of the people. He's a Bangkok
patrician,' said Thitinan. 'What I am worried about is we will have
an election and the Democrats will crawl back to power by default but
they will not be representative of Thailand.'
The Democrats have never had a following in Thailand's
impoverished north-eastern provinces where some 50 per cent of the
Thai population resides and where Thaksin's populist Thai Rak Thai
party had its strongest following.
While the Democrats' prospects in the next election may be looking
bright, a victory by default may be no guarantee for political
stability.
'If a substantial number of people cannot have a legitimate way to
express themselves via their political parties, it does not bode well
for democratic development and moreover it may lead to another
political crisis in the near future,' warned Chaturon Chaisaeng, one
of the leading Thai Rak Thai politicians banned from politics for the
next five years.
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur 
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