Bangkok - On Friday the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) will march on Government House to force the resignation of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his cabinet, who have been running the country for less than six months.
There promises to be thousands of peaceful protestors, long speeches, tents set up opposite Government House to protect people from the monsoon rains, food deliveries from unknown backers and, no doubt, a long wait before anything happens. The scene is all too familiar for Bangkokians.
The PAD, a loose coalition of disparate groups united only in their hatred for former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, staged almost daily protests in the capital for much of 2006 until the tanks rolled on to the streets on September 19, ending the political impasse.
Twenty-one months after Thaksin's political downfall and six months after a general election brought the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) to power, coup rumours are rife again.
'I think the PAD's backing goes very high up and involves military elements, because otherwise they would not be so rabid,' opined Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Thailand's prestigious Chulalongkorn University.
Although the military ousted Thaksin, they could not prevent the proxy PPP from winning the December 23, 2007, general election, and putting in place a 'nominee' cabinet of Thaksin allies.
The PAD returned to the streets on May 25 shortly after the current government began to push for constitutional amendments that are likely to lead to the dismissal of about 16 corruption cases against Thaksin, a billionaire telecommunications tycoon who was prime minister between 2001 to 2006.
The military justified their September coup with charges that Thaksin has been involved in mass corruption, undermined the monarchy and divided the nation.
So far, only the last charge has stuck.
Thaksin, who was banned from entering politics for five years by a constitutional tribunal ruling a year ago, continues to be at the heart of Thailand's political divide.
Although he holds no political post, the hand of Thaksin is seen in whatever the current 'nominee' cabinet does.
For instance, the government's decision this week to support Cambodia in its bid to nominate Preah Vihear, a centuries old Hindu temple on the Thai-Cambodia border as a World Heritage Site, has been seen as part of a sinister business deal, typical of the Thaksin era.
It doesn't help matters that Thai Foreign Minister Noppodon Patama is Thaksin's former lawyer and one day after he disclosed the country's support for Cambodia's Preah Vihear bid, Thaksin announced plans to build a casino-hotel complex on Koh Kong, an island off Cambodia's western coast bordering Thailand.
Pheah Vihear is a sensitive issue for most Thais. The magnificent Hindu temple was the source of a border dispute in the 1950s that ended up in the Hague's International Court. The court decided the temple belonged to Cambodia.
Thailand opposed Cambodia's proposal to list Preah Vihear temple at UNESCO last year on the grounds that the Cambodian site map included still disputed territory.
Cambodia submitted a new map last month, which Noppodon approved this week, paving the way for the temple's lisitng at a UNESCO meeting on July 2, and providing a publicity boost for Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's party in a general election scheduled on July 27.
'It looks like Thailand decided to help Mr Hun Sen in the elections,' said Kraisak Choonhavan, a member of the Democrat opposition party.
'The government's way of handling this has created the suspicion that personal gains are more important than national gains,' added Kraisak.
That was one of the main complaints against Thaksin's two-term premiership, which increasingly looked like a runaway private gravy train.
Pent up outrage against Thaksin's self-serving government style finally exploded in January 23, 2006, when his family sold their 49 per cent equity in the Thaksin-founded Shin Corp conglomerate to Singapore's Temasek Holding for a tax-free 2 billion dollars.
That gave the PAD the ammunition they needed to mount a a popular anti-Thaksin campaign that finally led to the 2006 coup. Now the PAD is back on the streets for similar reasons.
'I think the Thaksin overhang has been constant,' said Thitinan. 'This government is not to be trusted, and Thaksin exacerbates that.'
Increasingly, with or without a coup, observers are saying that the only long-term solution for the political divide caused by Thaksin is to get Thaksin out of politics for good.
'The only solution is if a court case can quickly come out with a sentence that Thaksin is guilty, then politically he would be out,' said Kraisak.
Unfortunately, Thailand's judicial system is notoriously slow and certain elements may not be able to wait for the courts.
zawyJun 19th, 2008 - 16:23:41
I wish this article did not gloss over the fact that Thaksin is supported by the people of Thailand. PAD protests against him are small and backed only by the Bangkok elite and military. They used the LEGAL sale of his business as an excuse to try to make him look guilty of something. His party and people were voted back in power after the military ousted him, so it appears the voting system still works and the people still support him for the economic 'boom' and the help he provided to the people of the country. It's a shame this article says explicitly that the legal system should come to an ILLEGAL verdict against Thaksin just so that the elite and military can regain power over the people of Thailand.
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