Beijing - Little progress is expected in next week's six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, Chinese analysts said, with Pyongyang unlikely to alter its policy of nuclear armament.
'It is a good sign that all parties agreed to resume the talks, which means that there is space to negotiate on this DPRK nuclear issue and that all parties are willing to talk,' Yu Yingli of the Shanghai Institute of International Relations said, referring to North Korea by the acronym of its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
'But we need to admit that the disputes still exist, especially the differences between the DPRK and the United States, so I don't think that we should put high expectations on this round of talks,' Yu told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
Other Chinese analysts supported Yu's pessimistic forecast for the latest round of talks, which have been going on for more than three years.
'The general opinion [among Chinese experts] is that it could not make any substantial progress, and this conclusion is based on past experience,' said Liu Jiangyong of the Institute of International Studies at Beijing's Qinghua University.
The United States, North Korea, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia will seek agreement on the implementation of a 'statement of principles' that they issued in September 2005 as a road map for negotiations.
The joint statement commits North Korea to abandoning its nuclear weapons programme in exchange for aid and security guarantees.
After North Korea declared it had conducted a nuclear test on October 9, the UN Security Council agreed on a catalogue of sanctions, including a sea and land blockade to monitor trafficking in nuclear materials and technologies.
Yu said he believes Pyongyang needs the new talks to 'ease the pressure from the international community.'
'The sanctions have already brought pain,' he said. 'Secondly, the DPRK now sees itself as a nuclear-capable nation. It wants to get more benefit from this new status through this round of talks.'
'But the United States will definitely not change its position on this issue, so the dispute is even larger than before,' Yu added.
China hosted five previous rounds of talks largely as a way to get the United States and North Korea to sit down together after Washington refused to hold direct bilateral talks with Pyongyang.
North Korea had appeared unwilling to resume talks because of US financial sanctions imposed late last year.
The US Treasury Department froze the assets of and banned transactions with Macao-based Banco Delta Asia. It accused the bank of distributing counterfeit US dollars and money-laundering for North Korea.
Washington also imposed financial sanctions against 11 North Korean organizations designated as proliferators of technology used for weapons of mass destruction.
The United States has agreed that the issue of financial sanctions will be handled by a separate working group within the six-party framework.
It also appeared to have relaxed its total opposition to direct bilateral talks with North Korea, Liu said.
But Liu downplayed the role of host nation China in persuading North Korea to resume dialogue.
'We cannot say China put pressure on the DPRK,' he said. 'China plays the role of facilitator as a large, responsible country.'
Dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang remained the 'key point to solve the problem,' Liu said.
Despite the shared ideology and history of the two nations' ruling communist parties, China actually has 'little influence' over North Korea, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at People's University in Beijing.
'If the DPRK refused to return to the six-party talks or continued to a second nuclear test, China would make an extremely strong reaction, which could be anticipated by the DPRK,' Shi told dpa.
'But I did not see many physical indications that China put pressure on the DPRK for the six-party talks,' Shi added.
The United States is looking for the new round to produce 'progress in taking concrete actions' and steps to implement the September 2005 joint statement, US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said this week.
Many US officials favour tougher sanctions if the talks fail to make progress, but Liu argued that sanctions can only make North Korea's position more entrenched by giving it a greater sense of crisis and leaving it more isolated.
'It will rely on nuclear weapons to unify the country and at the same time to maintain its deterrence to the outside,' he said.
Far from marking the beginning of the end for Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme, Shi said he also believes that the resumption of dialogue could strengthen its position.
'Getting back to the six-party talks is good for the DPRK to insist on implementing its nuclear policy while reducing the possibility of tougher sanctions from the international community,' he said.
Yu agreed that North Korea's apparent possession of nuclear capability gives it a 'strategic weapon' that increases its security and makes progress in the six-party talks more difficult.
'The DPRK is sticking to its position,' Shi said. 'It is obvious that they don't want to give up their nuclear bomb.'
'This has a lot to do with their idea of security and internal politics,' he said. 'The conflict in the positions of the United States and the DPRK is quite obvious.'
© 2006 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur 
We Should Alter it for Them...Dec 15th, 2006 - 18:19:00
Time to take the gloves off. Time to tell S.Korea to either pick a side or play catch up. Time to tell China business as usual is on hold until they fix this. Time to give notice to Japan that trouble is looming and prepare.
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